The Big Off Season Questions

Baseball can be infuriating. There are so many moving parts, that every season it seems like there's a ton of work to do, not just to get better, but to even tread water. It only gets worse when your team is a mid or small market team.

Without further ado, here are the things I think the Tribe needs to do in order of importance:

1) Re-sign Joe Smith

Yes, I consider this to be the most important off season move.  With the fall of Perez and the regression of Pestano, our bullpen needs some stability.  Smith is definitely going to get other offers, but he's indicated that he'd like to stay.  We can also offer him something only a handful of other teams can offer: the closer role.  With Scrabble, Shaw, and Allen on board, that's a solid start for the bullpen.  Pestano is the kind of guy who will do whatever it takes to return to form and we have guys like CC Lee that can step in, too.

But the linchpin of this new bullpen has to be Smith.  We need a guy we can count on and a guy who can be a leader.

Update: I just read some speculation that the Tribe would have $15-$20M to spend this off season.  I don't think it would take more than $5M to bring Smith back, if that.  I'm guessing more like $4M.

2) Find a starter

While everyone seems to be focused on our offense (see below), the reality of the situation is that our rotation -- that exceeded all expectations -- ranked 15th in all of baseball, 10th in the AL, above only the 4 worst teams in the AL and the Angels.  Our rotation was fantastic in the second half, there can be no doubt about that, but given the competition we're facing, they have to be better.

The upside is that we have four starters returning, and Masterson and Salazar should make a nice front of the rotation combo.  The downside is a) that won't be enough and b) our depth is lacking.  It would probably take a couple of drastic moves to fix both of those problems.

Obviously, I'm hoping that Ubaldo accepts our qualifying offer, but given the fragility of his amazing rebound,

he would be smart to take the best offer he gets.  Yes, I think he's the kind of guy who has loyalty to the people who helped him return to form, but he's also the kind of guy who probably realizes he only has so many years to play baseball.

Kazmir has said he'd like to return and it would certainly be nice to have him back, but he's not the solution to facing a loaded Tigers rotation 19 times a year.

3) Add a bat.

There seems to be a growing chorus of people who think adding another bat to this line-up is essential to the team's success, and that it's the most important thing they can do.  This is something of a knee jerk reaction stemming from being blanked in our sole playoff game.  Go look at the numbers -- the Tribe was #6 in all of baseball in runs scored, #5 in the AL.  The teams above them?  The Red Sox, the Tigers, the A's, and the Orioles.  Hey, what do those first three teams have in common, I wonder?

It's also important to keep in mind that, while the emergence of Yan Gomes was a surprise, the evolution of Jason Kipnis was not.  The biggest surprises for our offense were how bad Swisher, Bourne, and Cabrera performed.  They all hard career down seasons, yet we still scored the 5th most runs in our league.  It's insane to think that all three of them will perform at the same level next year.

In other words, offense wasn't as big of a problem as people keep saying.  They were a streaky team -- that's the bigger issue when it comes to offense.

But let's say we're desperate to improve the offense, because those 3 playoff teams are above us, and if we want to make the post-season, we need to surpass at least one of them.  Our options for upgrade are fairly limited: third base and right field.  There aren't a ton of good options at either spot, and as much as I'd love to see Choo return, that's probably crazy talk given his price.

Speaking of crazy talk, you could always mull this over: Carlos Santana is a converted third baseman.  The Dodgers made him change from 3B to catcher something like five years ago.  I doubt this is a realistic option, but, then again, Miguel Cabrera is playing third...

Crazy Ideas

Okay, well, aside from having Santana play third, there are two very clear possibilities that fall under the "crazy ideas" heading.

The first is one that's been batted around for quite some time: trade Cabrera.  The theory is that Aviles can handle the short stop duties until Lindor is ready, which should be in another year.  Given Cabrera's performance in 2013, there wouldn't be that great of a drop off, although there would be some (and can we really afford any?).

Cabrera's value has dropped, though, and we'd most likely get prospects in return, but that could be pitching prospects, which we need.  This would be the kind of deal we'd make if we could be sure it won't damage the current team, so we could stock up for the future.

I think the right offer could make this happen.

The second crazy idea is going to take a lot of explaining, but it stems by something former Tribe beat writer Anthony Castrovince mentioned in his blog (which I seem unable to locate).

Here's the thing: as of right now, Carlos Santana is our DH and occasional fill-in first baseman or catcher.  And that's great, but it's under-utilizing him.  Santana's value is as an offensive minded catcher.  There aren't many catchers out there that can claim the kind of offensive output as Santana.  There are plenty of DHs who can.

In other words, using Santana as a DH is actually kind of waste; it's like using a $20 for something that only costs $10, and in this case you don't get any change.

Which means that, yes, Carlos Santana has a ton of value as a trade chip.

Listen, the DH is something of a dying position in the AL.  It's rare to find a team that has an every day DH anymore.  It's something of an open spot used by managers to rest guys without losing their bats.  Can you even name a DH-only player anymore besides David Ortiz?

So using Santana as a DH and little else is a waste, a waste made all the more glaring by the fact that there are plenty of teams who would kill for a catcher with Santana's bat.

And I know that I've already crossed the crazy line by even suggesting we might trade one of our best hitters, but I'm going to take it a step further.  Because you know who could really use an offensive catcher who is signed through 2016?

The Tampa Bay Rays.

And you know who the Rays are more than likely looking to trade this off season?

David Price.

Price has 2 more years on his contract ('14 and '15).  He's a Cy Young winner.  The Rays' Achilles' heel is offense.

Wrap your brain around Masterson, Price, and Salazar as our 1-3, as our match-ups for Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanches.  It's hard not to like that, isn't it?

Yeah, it means a blow to our offense, but runs are easier to manufacture than pitchers...

Look at it this way, too: such a deal wouldn't cost us any money.  We then take the remaining $11M-$16M (after signing Smith) to sign Masterson to a long term deal, $8M of which is already being counted in the '14 payroll.  Then we see if we can get a decent bat for $5M-$10M, ideally in a one year deal (Nate McLouth would be a good platoon candidate with Stubbs or Raburn and would cost about $6M/year).  But our rotation would be set for the next two years at least (two years spent trying to get Bauer and Carrasco fixed), and our bullpen should be set (with Smith, Scrabble, Shaw, and Allen).

I told you it was a crazy idea.

As always, it should be an interesting off-season.

2013 in Review: The End of the Beginning

I was pretty drunk by the time the last out of the Wild Card game was recorded.  I couldn't even tell you who was batting.

The great agony of the 2013 Cleveland Indians is that there was always an equal chance that they'd be unbeatable or they'd be unbearable.  When the team was firing on all cylinders, they could beat anyone (except Detroit).  But when one or two players were having off games, it spread like a disease through the line-up.  This team excelled (and were likable) because of the chemistry they had; they seemed to fail for the same reason.

But what do we take away from a season where the team overachieved?  What do we take away from the first (of many) year that Jason Kipnis was an All-Star?  That McAllister and Kluber looked like solid, back of the rotation guys?  That Danny Salazar looked like a future ace and Justin Masterson looked like a current one?  When Bourne, Swisher, and Cabrera all disappointed at the plate, with our steady 8th and 9th inning guys both lost their jobs, and when Yan Gomes went from #3 catcher to #2 to starter?

First and foremost, we need to look at the core of this team, which is probably a group consisting of Kipnis, Swisher, Bourne, Brantley, Cabrera, Santana, and Gomes.  That's 7 guys right there that we can think of as forming the basis for this team for the next few years.  That's not a bad foundation to build on.

We should bask in what Terry Francona was able to do.  I know that he had a much better line-up to roll out every day than Manny Acta, but it's clear that Francona was able to keep the team even keel all season, something Acta seemed incapable of.  Every time it seemed like the Tribe was going to fall out of it completely, they just kept doing what they do, and eventually turned it around.  Too often over the last few years, that wasn't the case.  Francona did a lot for this team.

We should praise the deals that Chris Antonetti made in the off-season.  Signing Kazmir (and Giambi) to minor league deals was smart, but not above and beyond what most GMs would do.  No, the trade sending Esmil Rogers to Toronto for Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes was genius.  Gomes' offense went a long way towards filling in the gaps left by our under performing off season acquisitions.

And how about that deal for Scrabble?  He was dominant when he came over.

We should definitely make sure Mickey Calloway gets a bonus.  Not only did he turn around the quagmire that was Ubaldo Jimenez, but he helped resurrect Kazmir and turned Kluber and McAllister into reliable starters.  The unspoken upside of this is that if anyone can get Trevor Bauer to listen to him, it has to be Calloway, who's proven he has the magic touch.  I would love to see him work his magic on Nick Hagadone, too.

We should hope to god that Bourne and Swisher bounce back because we're paying them a lot of money.

More than anything, we should be thankful (and hopeful) that the city of Cleveland is beginning to believe in the Tribe again.  It's a simple matter of economics.  If the Tribe is going to compete, they're going to have to spend money, and they're only going to make the money they need to spend if people come to the games.  All of which is to say that the first month of next season should be really interesting.  You would expect to see an uptick in attendance, weather permitting.

In other words, there are an awful lot of reasons to look forward to the next few years of baseball in Cleveland.  The end of this season was the beginning of a new era.  Let's hope it's one that results in a World Championship.

Tough Week

The common perception was that this past week was going to be the true test of whether or not this Indians team was really going to be able to compete for first in the Central Division.  And, like every other thing we've seen from this team so far this year, the answer is still unclear.  Had they gone, say, 2-5 or 1-6, I think we could put a fork in them.  Had they gone 5-2 or 6-1, we'd have real reason to be excited for the rest of this season.  After all, the Red Sox and the Rangers are two of the best teams in all of the American League; taking them on -- on the road, no less -- was going to be a big challenge.

We went 3-4 on this road trip, which really isn't that bad, considering the opponents.  On top of that, the Tribe lost those 4 games by a combined total of 5 runs.  If a hit or a pitch had gone our way in three of those games, we'd have come out of this week with a winning record.

The real bright spot in the past week was the offense.  Granted, they were playing in hitter friendly parks, but they were also facing good pitching.  While Santana had spurts of greatness and awfulness, the 1-4 we're currently throwing out there every day (Brantley, Kipnis, Cabrera, and Hafner) looks like it could be the real deal.  Fukudome has also started coming along.  Honestly, when Choo returns I would expect/hope for him to go into the #5 spot, possibly moving Santana as low as #7 and leaving Fukudome where he's at.

The obvious dark spot was the bullpen, who struggled most of the week.  I'd like to chalk that up to overuse because, let's face facts, most of those guys haven't pitched this much before.  It also might be time to think about making a few changes.  It's obvious that Acta is remiss to use either Hermann or Durbin in serious situations.  The further we get into the season and the more important each game becomes, it's clear that we can't afford to have a bullpen with ostensibly only five pitchers.

The day off tomorrow is a double edged sword.  On one hand, it would be great to get back out there and get the bad taste out of our mouths after a tough loss.  But a day off could definitely help the bullpen.

The upcoming three game series against the Tigers is obviously a big one.  The Tribe has to win the series, and even then they'll only pick up one game.  A sweep is the best possible outcome, but Verlander is pitching the third game, so that's going to be tough.  Still, taking tow out of three would be pretty fantastic, and, I think, a big lift for this team.

So we still don't know if this team is for real or not, but at least we've made it this far with at least some spark of hope.

Thoughts on the Big Trade

It's hard to believe that the Indians had yet another walk off home run tonight and that is probably the secondary story on the Tribe tonight.

The big news, of course, is the "almost done" trade that sends Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Matt McBride, and Joe Gardner to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez.

My gut reaction is that I hate to see both Pomeranz and White on that list.  But I can get over that, because I think that this is ultimately a good deal for the Indians.  Here are my reasons:

1) Jimenez has struggled this year, but his big problems have come at home, place known as Coors Field.  The Rockies' stadium is the most pitcher unfriendly park in baseball.  Jimenez's ERA at Coors is closer to 6 than 5.  His ERA everywhere else is 2.83.  Granted, he's been in the NL, but his numbers away from Coors are better than everyone in our rotation but Masterson.

2) Alex White has never been projected at anything higher than a #3 starter, so losing him is more of a product of the fact that he's a guy we actually drafted, and we've had so few home grown pitchers make it to the major league team.  Pomeranz, of course, projects as an ace.  The problem, however, is that these are projections.  There's no guarantee that he'll pan out, although I do think he will.  Still, at the earliest we'd see him next year, more more likely 2013, which is a ways off.

3) Yes, this is a deal made because the Tribe is (now) only 1.5 games out of first place.  But let's not look past the fact that this is also a trade for the future.  Jimenez is locked in through 2013, with an option for 2014 (although he can void that since he was traded).  This means that heading into next year (and probably the year after), the Tribe won't be wondering who's going to be in their rotation.  In fact, they'll have about 9 guys between Cleveland and Columbus who could make a go of it, and suddenly two guaranteed front of the rotation guys in Jimenez and Masterson.

4) I would expect Carrasco to get sent down to make room for Jimenez.  He clearly needs to work something out given his last 5 starts.  I don't have a lot of faith in Huff, but he's been really good since getting called up, so no reason to send him down.  But let's not forget what Carrasco did in his 5 starts before those.  He obviously has the stuff to be a front end guy, and perhaps sending him back down to AAA will turn him around.  But, again, if we can get him straightened out, that's a heck of a 1-3.

5) Yes, we still need offense.  Rumor has it that the Tribe is in a good position to acquire Ludwick from the Padres.  While Ludwick's overall numbers aren't great, his OPS against left handed pitching ranks him at the top of the Tribe's order, so getting him to face just lefties would be great.

6) The time is now for the Indians organization.  Why?  Because Cleveland can really only support two sports teams, and the Browns will always be number one.  Attendance for Cavs games is only going to drop, if they even play next season.  Now is the time for the Indians to win back the city.  Not only does this move improve their chances of winning the division, it shows the fan base that they're serious about winning right now.  That's huge for the franchise.

Anyway, looking forward to see Jimenez pitch and I'm hoping we find a way to get Ludwick.  Should be a fun next couple of weeks.

Angels at Indians, 7/27/11

Well, that was painful.

After pulling a game out of their collective rear ends on Monday, we saw the Tribe lose a game they really should have come back to win (or at least send to extra innings) last night and then saw them get no hit today...and commit FIVE ERRORS.

But what did we really learn from all of this?

Well, we learned that if the front office makes a deal for a pitcher and doesn't make a deal for a bat, our front office is watching a different team than the rest of us.

Also, I don't care how badly he needs work or whether or not it's "baseball logic," Chris Perez should never pitch unless it's a save situation.

According to what I've read, the Indians actually offered the Mets a "good" prospect (I would guess Phelps or McCallister) and agreed to pick up ALL of Beltran's remaining salary.  But Beltran was never told about the deal, one would think because his agent, Scott Boras, scoffed at the idea of sending one of his big guns to Cleveland.  It appears now that he's going to San Francisco for less than what the Tribe offered, but you can't say it won't be easier for him to reach the post-season with that team.

The silver lining in this is that it's clear the front office is serious about adding offense to this team, and that they are willing to spend money to do it.  The problem now, however, is that there just aren't that many quality bats out there.  The best of the bunch is Hunter Pence, but the Astros seem to want the world for him, and the Tribe won't part with White, Pomeranz, Chisenhall, or Kipnis, and I don't blame them.

What's particularly frustrating about the situation for the Tribe right now is that, come the beginning of September, they could get 3 guys back from the DL, all of whom can have an immediate impact.  We saw what Grady Sizemore could do when he's healthy this season, and Choo's career numbers suggest that he'll get back on track.  They've decided to rehab White as a reliever for the big league team, and while there's no doubt he'll help, he could also slot in nicely if a rotation spot comes available.  He certainly performed better than the back of our rotation so far this year.

But we faced the Angels' three best starters in this series and countered with a guy who has been abysmal, a guy who has been roughed up lately, and a guy who has never had success in the majors, and we were right there in every game.  If we had any kind of offense at all, we probably could have taken all three.

I feel bad for Chisenhall and Kipnis, as I think they can make real contributions to this team, but they're being thrown into the fire with little room for error.  Even if we make a trade for a bat, though, one of them is going to have to start hitting more, ideally so we can slot them in the number two spot and move Brantley back to lead off.

There has also been some talk about starting Lou Marson more because he's the superior defensive catcher.  It's actually not a bad idea, assuming that Santana would then play first more.  Santana's BA is horrible, but he gets on base far more than Matt LaPorta, whose BA isn't too great, either.  In fact, LaPorta's hitting less than Marson, so the entire move would be an upgrade.  At the very least, Marson should start against every lefty we face.

I have no idea if the Indians will be able to make an impact deal before the trade deadline.  I really hope so, because the potential is there.  And once you get into the post-season, anything can happen.

2012 Indians: All Is Not Lost

Before this season, I predicted the Tribe would go 82-80.  The way they are playing right now, that seems inevitable, and perhaps even optimistic.  But there is hope.

I don't mean that there's hope for this season.  There really isn't much of that.  There's no reason to believe that the return of Travis Hafner and the addition of Cord Phelps will turn the offense around so dramatically, or at least return it to what it was before Hafner was hurt.  I'm sure it will get better, but I can't imagine it will be what it was at the start of this year.

There's also the simple fact that the Tigers are a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost.  Even with a healthy line-up, the Tribe doesn't have any offense that can match Detroit's.

One thing that people seem to be ignoring during this Cleveland/Detroit series is the fact that the White Sox are now only 4.5 back.  Again, they're a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost.  This, then, would give the Tribe two teams with payrolls twice as large as theirs that they have to contend with to win the division.  The odds of that are not great.

Because this is parity in baseball; the big market teams can compete every year, the mid and small market teams can compete every 4 to 5 years.

And that's fine.  I've accepted that.  It's not good, but it is what it is.

All that said, Tribe fans should be focusing on the good that has already come out of this season instead of the fact that we're no longer in first place.

Justin Masterson has shown he can be a real starter.  He's gotten hosed by the offense as late, but his ERA stands at 3.16.  What's particularly amazing about this is the fact that he still can't get out lefties; they hit .308 against him!  It's mind boggling that he would be pitching so well with such an obvious hole in his armor.  But this also means that, if he finds a way to at least lower his BAA for lefties, he could be even better than he is now.

We've all heard how great Carlos Carrasco's "stuff" is, and now we're beginning to see it.  It's clear that Carrasco is beginning to mature right before our eyes, and a full season under his belt will only take him that much further.  Imagine where he could be come next year.

Alex White proved that he's ready for the big leagues.  His injury has hurt the team, but, if the Tribe is smart, they'll bring him back to the Show when he's off the DL.  A half season in the Majors can only help him at this point.  But he showed that he's not over matched by big league hitters.

Mitch Talbot is a strange case.  When he's good, he's dominate, but when he's bad...it gets ugly quick.  But having a guy like him in the back of the rotation would be great, assuming he can stay healthy.

It's hard to say what's wrong with Fausto Carmona.  The man who fought off the midge invasion seems to crack under pressure these days.  Carmona's a tricky situation for the Tribe.  His trade value has to be pretty low right now.  But if he starts pitching well again, would the Tribe deal him?  He has team friendly options on his contract, so trading him away (assuming he improves) seems like a bad idea, particularly if the Tribe is planning on contending next season.

Josh Tomlin is currently going through is inevitable fall back to earth after a ridiculous start.  Tomlin will never be anything more than a four or five starter, but at least he throws strikes.  I'm not entirely sure there's a place for him next year, which is strange to say given how well he's pitched this season.

And, of course, there's Drew Pomeranz, who has dominated at the minor league level and is currently following the Alex White schedule of promotion.  He's currently in advanced A at Kinston, where's he got a 2.01 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 53.2 innings.  I would expect him to send the season with the AA Akron Aeros and to start next season with the AAA Columbus Clippers.  And I would guess we'll see him at mid-season next year, which would be like trading for a great starter.

Adding Cord Phelps to the line-up hasn't really paid any dividends yet, but it's a good move.  While Lonnie Chisenhall hasn't been lighting it up so far this season, his time will come, as will Jason Kipnis'.  It will be interesting to see what kind of battle we might get between Phelps and Kipnis at second; Phelps could get a real leg up for next season if manages to start hitting in the majors.

It also bares repeating that Grady Sizemore is coming back from an injury.  Yes, I know he came out of the gate like a raging bull, but it was only a matter of time before he dropped down.  His timing is clearly off at the plate.  This, I think it's safe to assume, will get worked out over time.

And another year is that much distance between Choo and his DUI.

I truly believe this team has a chance to win the division next year, if not go to the World Series.  I said as much a few months back.  And I'm fine with waiting.  I'll take my fond memories from the first part of this season and store them away until next year.

And I'll spend this season watching a .500 slowly transform into a winner.

The Lost Season (and, sadly, is hasn't even gotten here yet)

What a difference a series makes.

At a certain point you do have to wonder, if the Indians were so bad, why have all of our players been traded to teams in the middle of playoff races? Garko and Betancourt are going to battle each other for the NL Wildcard, DeRosa is fighting for first in the NL Central, and now Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco are going to be extending the Phillies lead in the NL East (and I've just now noticed that we have only dealt guys to the NL, which is interesting).

I give credit to Mark Shapiro on at least one point, though: he's being honest. While I don't know that I completely agree that the Tribe couldn't compete next year (even with a command from on high to cut payroll), he would certainly know better than I. At least he's not pretending and trying to sugar coat this. He doesn't think we have the pieces to compete next year and, in the interests of full disclosure, he told us that we don't even have the money to get those pieces. So it's time to rebuild (and that's what it is -- screw this "reload" B.S.).

Could we have gotten more for Lee and Francisco? It sure seems that way. It is odd that, for a team so desperate for pitching, half of the guys we got were position players? Definitely. Is it even stranger that one of them is a catcher, when we currently have three catchers on the major league roster, two catchers on the AAA roster (one of whom, Toregas, has better numbers than the new guy), and one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball on the AA roster? Hell, yes. But, for as much as Shapiro wants to keep things a secret, it's clear that those players are around for other reasons -- either as replacements for guys who are going to get dealt or as pieces to sweeten another deal.

All eyes are on Victor Martinez. And everyone should be looking at Victor Martinez, but let's not forget about Jhonny Peralta, Jamie Carroll, and Carl Pavano. If the Tribe is serious about rebuilding for 2011, all four of those guys should be dealt in the next two days. There's absolutely no reason NOT to.

I expect Martinez to go to the Red Sox in some kind of deal that gets us Justin Masterson. That's my best guess, though. I have no real inside knowledge on this.

So where does that leave us, going forward? Well, assuming we deal the guys I listed above, and working under the completely darkness of not knowing who we might get for any of them (I'm willing to guess we'd make a spot in the bullpen for Masterson, if need be), I'm suggesting this, beginning this weekend (after the trade deadline):

Infield:

Marte (3rd)
Cabrera (SS)
Valbuena (2nd)
LaPorta (1st)
Gimenez (C)

Outfield:

Choo (RF)
Sizemore (CF)
Brantley/Crowe (LF/4th OF)

Bench:

Shoppach (because I don't think they'll deal both of our experienced catchers)
Hafner (DH)
Barfield or Donald (utiltiy INF)
Brown (1st/OF/DH)

Rotation:

Carmona
Laffey
Huff
Sowers
Carrosco (from the Lee deal)

Bullpen:

Wood
Perez
Perez
Todd
Lewis
Sipp
Smith

There's no reason to hang on to our mis-matched bullpen. Veras, Gosling, Abreau -- these guys are not the future of our bullpen. Sure, Sipp has had problems and it's hard to imagine giving R. Perez and J. Lewis another shot, but by the hell not? If they need to work themselves out (and they've been perfect in AAA), let them do it at the top level.

I'll be honest: I'm fine with this. Oh, I'm not saying I won't get really misty-eyed if/when Victor is traded, but I would much rather we be upfront about it than pretend otherwise. The Tribe is a mid-market team in a city with more teams than it can support. I understand that this is how it works.

It's just really sad that this generation of Indians -- Sabathia, Lee, Martinez, Peralta, etc. -- are headed out, having come SO close to getting us that championship we've been waiting for all these years. It was a heck of a ride.

There will be a few holdovers, though, thankfully. Sizemore is signed through 2011 with an option for 2012, which HAS to be picked up. Hafner is signed through 2012 with an option for 2013 (much less likely to be picked up as I don't know that he'll be needed). Cabrera is arbitration eligible starting in 2011, but I would expect all these moves to be a precursor to signing him to a long term deal.

And let's look at it this way, too: we have a lot of pitching options in the pipe between now and the start of the 2011 season. There's Carmona, there's Laffey, there's Huff and Sowers. Then we've got Scott Lewis and the newly aquired Carrasco. Beyond that, we have our big star, Hector Rondon, who's pitching next to Chuck Lofgren in Columbus. Two years is enough time for AA guys to make a run, too -- guys like Edell and Graham, who both have ERAs under 3 in Akron. That's ten guys I just rattled off, and I'm not even counting potential bullpen guys or anyone we acquire between now and then.

Do I wish we could have made a go of it last year? Of course -- I wish we could have made a go of it this year. I want a championship to come to Cleveland and I want the Indians to be the first team to do it (I'm looking at you, Cavs). But I'm fine with rebuilding if we're actually going to commit to it.

Sadly, that means trading a few players that I've really grown to like over the years. But that's the nature of the game, isn't it?

Cleveland Matters

Time flies when your favorite team is awful, doesn't it?

I watched "The Brooklyn Dodgers: The Ghosts of Flatbush" on HBO again today. It's one of those shows that's impossible to turn off when you stumble across it, the story is just that interesting (I should point out that it was followed by "Ted Williams," a documentary about, well, Ted Williams, during which his nephew, named Ted Williams -- really -- claims that, because of the debacle that was Williams' will, his famous uncle will now be most commonly known as "the frozen guy," not, say, "the greatest hitter baseball has ever known." The lesson here is that Ted Williams' nephew, Ted Williams, is an idiot.). The Dodgers clinched the pennant in 1955 rather handily, and waited to see who they would play in the World Series. One of the Dodgers' mentioned that they didn't really care whether they would play the Yankees or Cleveland.

This was, of course, one year after the Indians would get swept in the World Series by the Giants.

Anyway, I think, given the decades of irrelevance that the Tribe has experienced in its history, it's easy to forget why the Indians matter. They don't have the mystique that the Yankees or the Red Sox have, yet in the early days of baseball they were right there, just as important the the league as anything coming out of New York or Boston or even Detroit.

I once read an article in which famed Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully suggested that perhaps the best thing that could happen to baseball would be to cut the league back down to eight teams in each league. It made me wonder, in today's bi-coastal, media controlled world, which teams would make the cut. And I began to worry that my beloved Tribe wouldn't be one of them.

Cleveland's biggest problem these days -- aside from the staggering job loss and crippling depression -- is that it is a one sport town; the people of Northeast Ohio can really only afford to support one team at a time. Who are you going to go see, Ryan Garko (who I happen to like) and Kelly Shoppach (who I happen to not like), or LeBron James (who I like despite his front runner tendencies) and Shaq (who I like despite having played with Kobe)? Honestly, the NFL might want to reconsider extending the season any further, because at a certain point Cleveland fans are going to have to regularly decide between those Browns' tickets and those Cavs tickets', and we all know how that decision would go these days.

It is no coincidence that the Indians dominated after the Browns left and the Cavs got bad again.

So, what, then? Do we wait for LeBron to move to New York before the Tribe can go the World Series and lose again? No, we just hold out hope that we can catch lightning in a bottle again, like we did in '07, and realize that the karma of a city will only allow those years to happen as an exception, not as a rule.

Speaking of karma, does that mean we should trade Cliff Lee? Hey, at least Sabathia had the manners to win the Cy Young while getting our team into the post-season (granted, he actually had help). What could it possibly take to get Lee from the Tribe, given that we have a really cheap option on him next year? And, if we DO trade him, aren't we basically admitting that we have no shot next year, either?

Well, yes to that last one, which might not be too far from the truth. Keeping Cliff Lee means making a number of assumptions, specifically about our future pitching staff. It assumes that Jake Westbrook will be able to return to form after half a season of play this year (he's due back at the beginning of August). It assumes that Fausto Carmona, who was sent all the way to the Rookie League just a month ago, has figured it out, and can be the Cy Young contender he was in '07. It assumes that Hector Rondon's first two starts since getting the call to AAA Columbus are indications of what he'll do the rest of the season, and what he can do next year. It assumes that Aaron Laffey and Scott Lewis, if healthy, can live up to their potential. And it assumes that we can get something out of our AAAA guys, David Huff and Jeremy Sowers, who always seem to be one inning away from being solid pitchers.

It also assumes that any of those guys could move to the bullpen if they don't land a starting job and, in doing so, save said bullpen from itself.

And, yes, I would go so far as to say it assumes we have a new manager.

That's an awful lot of assumptions to make. That's an awful lot of "what if's."

Sadly, at this point, that's all we have.

Is There Hope?

So, here, we are, the end of May. The only thing keeping most people from paying attention to the Indians has gone away, the same way that most good things go away for Cleveland fans: painfully. There's no more shiny thing to distract us. In a few days, most of us will get over the latest in a long line of Cleveland sports miseries and focus will be placed squarely on our baseball team.

It's the end of May, the Tribe is 22-30, 8 games under .500 and 7.5 games out of first place. Oh, and that's not even the worst of it.

No, the worst of it is this:

Victor Martinez
Grady Sizemore
Travis Hafner
Joe Smith
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Lewis
Aaron Laffey
Jake Westbrook
Anthony Reyes

That is the list of players who are currently injured (although Martinez is day to day and not on the DL). The bottom third of our order today is hitting .211 or less. The (arguably) three remaining faces of our franchise since C.C. left -- Victor, Grady, and Pronk -- were no where to be seen. And there are now SIX pitchers on that list.

This all begs the question: how the heck do we win?

The truly frustrating team about this team is that, as bad as they've been, they're not yet completely out of it. All the teams in the division have flaws and one good winning streak against division rivals could put the Tribe on top. But you really have to wonder how that's possible when we're missing our RBI leader, our home run leaders, and we only have two dependable starters? How do we win more than 40% of our games with Fausto Carmona's continued problems and the back of our rotation made up of Jeremy Sowers and David Huff?

I don't know that we can. But here are some rather hopeful ideas.

First, we have to pray that Victor Martinez is only out for a few days. We're done without him. There's no way around that.

Second, we need to make a deal for a starter. We don't need an ace (we have one) or even a #2 (as Pavano has stepped it up). We need a back of the rotation guy who can give us a fight chance every five days and who can keep us competitive through the month of June. A guy like Brad Penny is a good option, but there's probably going to be a bidding war for him (I would guess, at this point, that it would take at least Kelly Shoppach to get him -- which I'm fine with).

Grady going on the DL isn't as bad as it seems. He's been ineffective so far this year and hasn't played outfield for a few weeks now. With Pronk need yet MORE rehab, this means we finally have a shot of getting Ryan Garko in the line-up. So we're going to need him to produce.

It's time to call up Jordan Brown. Wedge seems understandably hesitant to go with a young outfield, so it seems like DeRosa will get more time there. Brown has also gotten some time in the outfield recently, or he can play first when Garko is DHing, or even DH if need be. But, as of right now, if we have DeRosa in the outfield and Garko at first, we have no real hitter available to DH, at least no one with power. Brown's got a higher SLG in Columbus than LaPorta.

I stand by my "second starter" theory and, while Vinnie Chulk has been performing well in Columbus and is a righty, Zach Jackson can give us more innings. He just can't ever start for us again. Bring him in from the 'pen for three innings every three days or so, but no more.

Here's something to think about:

Cliff Lee
Carl Pavano
Jake Westbrook
Aaron Laffey
Scott Lewis

That's assuming Fausto doesn't get his act together (and it doesn't look like he will). But THAT is a rotation that can win the Central. But it's going to be another month before that's even a possibility.

Do we have anything in our favor that could get us to that point, to the All Star break? Well, no, not really. We're not facing any of the other bad teams in the AL until we get Oakland 4th of July weekend. In the meantime, we face six series against Central teams and then interleague play against arguably the best division in baseball right now.

That does mean, however, that if we manage to stay close by the All Star break, we have a much easier schedule in the second half, including a second series against Oakland and two each against Seattle and Baltimore, not to mention 9 games against Detroit, who seem to be the the best team in the division right now (and 12 against Minnesota, who could be right there as well).

So there IS hope.

How long it sticks around, though, should be evident in the next 30 days.

Once More, Into the Breach

The Indians suck.

Let's not humor ourselves into thinking otherwise.

In fact, I'm going to try not to go completely insane while writing this. I won't get all angry about the fact that the last four guys in our line-up today are hitting a combines .186 and that both Francisco and Garko have higher averages than all of them (Garko even has a higher average against righties). I'll hold back from punching the wall when I mention that Mark DeRosa's a life long second baseman who has played over 2100 innings at that position, yet hasn't played more than 10 games worth at first. I'll refrain from screaming at our new platoon at second base which only serves to a) break up momentum and b) take ABs at one of the best bats on our team (Ryan Garko). I'll even bite my tongue on the fact that our lead off man has the second lowest OBP of all the lead off men in the AL (third worst in baseball).

No, perhaps it might be better to do what I did last time, and throw out some crazy ideas, as the last one I threw out (Laffey to the 'pen) actually happened, and has ultimately helped more than it hurt (just barely).

We should continue to carry 8 relievers, because there's no reason not to. Our much hyped "versatility" means we don't need to carry as many position players. So 8 relievers and 5 starters will leave us with 12 spots, which should be, as of this very moment:

Choo
Sizemore
LaPorta
Francisco
Peralta
Cabrera
DeRosa
Garko
Martinez
Shoppach
Carroll
Dellucci*

*Based only upon the assumption that the Tribe will never part with him.

Valbuena needs to go back to Columbus to play every day.

That line-up not only gives us some flexibility, it also gives us stability. Also, Kelly Shoppach needs to return to his '07 position: he catches for one guy, and this time around it's Cliff Lee (that is, of course, unless the Tribe goes out and signs free agent Paul Byrd, which I'm thinking they should probably look into right now).

Then there's our rotation. Obviously, Cliff Lee is back in form. We've got to keep Fausto, just for the occasionally glimpses of greatness we get. Pavano only last 5 innings today, but he did manage to keep us in the game. Beyond that? Well, I don't know. That has a lot to do with our bullpen.

After Anthony Reyes' last outing, I became convinced it was time to move him to long relief. He didn't give up a single hit in his first three innings of work yesterday. But after one time through the order, they figured him out and he got hit hard. This seems to be a trend for Reyes -- just like Jeremy Sowers. As we don't have a right hander to compliment Laffey, maybe it's time to make that person Reyes.

Sure, this would leave us with yet ANOTHER hole in our rotation, but at this point it wouldn't be much of a hole.

In fact, I would suggest bringing Tomo Ohka from Columbus. His numbers have actually been better than David Huff, the guy we're calling up for tomorrow's start.

And then? Then I would start something called "2nd Starter."

We've already seen this happen with Laffey. In his very first relief appearance, he came in after Pavano went six innings to get a three inning save. And I think this will have to continue.

It's time to start pairing people up.

Look at it this way: Cliff Lee can pitch deep, so he won't need this kind of help. That leaves us with four starters who will all need "2nd Starters." We carry 8 relievers, that leaves us with four guys to choose from each night if our 1st and 2nd starters only get us through seven.

You heard me.

My crazy theory is this:

Rotation
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
David Huff
Tomo Ohka (until Scott Lewis returns)

2nd Starters
Aaron Laffey
Anthony Reyes
Zach Jackson
Jeremy Sowers

Relievers
Tony Sipp
Rafael Betancourt
Luis Vizcaino/Matt Herges

Closer
Kerry Wood

In theory, when Scott Lewis returns we can cut down on a second starter, assuming Lewis can pick up where he left off when he was healthy last year. For that matter, we have no idea that Huff won't be able to go deep into games, but, at this point, why take a chance? Over time, we'll need our 2nd Starters less and less. And, over time, we'll get back a healthy Joe Smith, an improved Rafeal Perez and Jensen Lewis from AAA, and a healthy Jake Westbrook.

Is my idea insane? Sure, but if it can keep us within striking distance until the All-Star break, why not give it a shot?

Drastic Times

Well, here we are, 25 games into the season, 5 games out of first place at 9-16. I would call this season a bust if it weren't for the fact that our division is so tightly packed. But time is running out and I think it's time for some drastic moves.

So here, without further ado, are Kyle's Drastic Move Suggestions:

1) Call up David Huff for the bullpen. Huff is currently 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA as a starter in Columbus. I know that the Tribe would like to keep him as a starter. But he's also got 23 K's in 28 innings and a heck of an arm. I say we give him a shot in the 'pen and return him to the rotation next year -- or hopefully later this year, as Lewis and Perez get themselves figured out. He's a lefty, though, so we'd still be missing a right handed set up man.

2) Play Ryan Garko every day. With the DH open, we can still get Victor into the line-up when Shoppach is catching. Garko has the second highest AVG on the team with runners in scoring position. Considering how often Wedge laments our poor at bats in those situations, why ISN'T Garko in the line-up every day? He's also hitting .293 with limited ABs.

3) While the sample size for both of them is pretty small, Asdrubal Cabrera's on base percentage is .435, second only to Victor Martinez. Grady Sizemore's is 100 points lower. On the flipside, though, Grady is currently tied for 1st in RBI. AC currently has 4 stolen bases to Grady's 5. I think you can see where I'm going with this. While I'd love to wait and make sure that Cabrera's numbers are for real, it's time to get drastic. Let's move him to the lead off spot and move Grady down in the order.

4) Cabrera, Garko, DeRosa, and Martinez need to play every day. They're the only ones hitting over .260 with RISP. As this has been one of our biggest problems, there's no reason any of them should ever sit.

5) Get LaPorta and Valbuena in two out of every three games. Why not?

BONUS SUPER CRAZY, IRRATIONALLY DRASTIC IDEA

6) Move Aaron Laffey to the bullpen and call up Jeremy Sowers, who's been very good in Columbus. Sure, that sounds insane, considering how much our rotation improved when Laffey came up, but bare with me. Laffey does something that no one in our bullpen appears able to do: get double play balls. Imagine being able to bring someone in to get a double play ball and having him actually do it. That would be invaluable. Granted, this move would also be dependent upon Pavano continuing to pitch well and actually turning into a #3 guy, not to mention the good Jeremy Sowers sticking around for a while (at least until Scott Lewis is healthy).

Like I said, drastic times call for drastic measures and I, for one, would have no problems with any of these moves. At this point, I'd take any changes they'd be willing to make.

Why I'm Not Panicking Yet

Yes, perhaps the Tribe should consider bringing in the priest from "The Natural." Although maybe it's not losing that's he disease, so much as bad pitching.

So we're 0-4 and we've given up more than forty runs in just four games. Our best starter has an ERA of 8.31 and didn't even go five innings. Shouldn't I be really concerned?

Well, I am, mostly because I enjoy watching baseball and I'd actually like to watch games that matter come last summer/early fall. But I'm not going over board just yet, and here's why:

Our pitching can't really be this bad. No, really. I mean, Rafael Perez gave up five runs tonight -- Rafael Perez, people! The man never gives up runs! It's unnatural for him, and it's been unnatural for over two years now. This isn't like Cliff Lee or Fausto Carmona -- good one year, bad the next and vice versa -- this is a guy who was pretty much the only reliever we could count on for much of last year (we even had to send Jensen Lewis down to AAA at one point, remember). So there's obviously something going on here.

As I said, bad pitching seems to be contagious.

The other thing that keeps me from freaking out entirely is our division. The Central doesn't really have any one team that stands out from the rest. Ideally, this means we'll have something of a log jam. If the Tribe can just stay with the pack to mid-season, we're still in it. For one, there's the possibility of a deal, which is something that really could happen given how much young talent we have and how many teams will be looking to deal away experienced pitching when they realize they have no chance at making the post-season (just let me have my little Jake Peavy dream, thank you). Almost as good as a trade is the fact that we'll get Jake Westbrook back. While not flashy, Westbrook has generally defined "solid," which is exactly what the Tribe needs. We need someone reliable, because what we have no is a bunch of guys who are erratic. Westbrook's made great progress in his rehab, so hopefully the Tribe can hold him back longer than they really need to just to make sure he's up to speed.

In the meantime, what are the chances that all four of our youngsters (Lewis, Huff, Laffey, and Sowers) bomb? At least one of them is going to step up. Even Cleveland luck isn't that bad.

Our bullpen IS good. The numbers don't lie. We'll get there.

And let's not forget about the good we've seen tonight -- namely, Travis Hafner. He's now hitting .313 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI. Hey, he's on a pace to hit 81 home runs! And drive in 162! Our offense should be fine, assuming we can get the on-base guys going (DeRosa, Cabrera, and the rather painful Francisco).

So I'm not panicking just yet.

But I will say this: tomorrow is a big game for Cliff Lee. Not only does he need to prove that his first start was a fluke, he needs to be a stopper. The Tribe needs a starter to end this downward spiral and if Cliff wants to be our ace, he needs to step up and do it. It actually might be more important for Cliff to pitch well tomorrow than it is for us to win.

Couple that with a good start from the only "clean" starter on Sunday, and we might have something.

Let's hope.

Opening Day Is Here!

Yes, it's finally that time of year again -- time to get down to business and talk about the season to come. As always, I'll give my completely biased, most likely wrong view on how the Tribe will do this year. I should point out, though, that I'm .500 in my AL Central predictions, having picked the Tribe both times in the last two seasons.

Shockingly enough, I'm sticking with a trend and picking the Indians to win the Central again. Why? One very simple reason: depth (which, it should be noted, was the same reason I gave going into the '07 season). We have more position player and pitching depth than any other team in the division. We're going to need some people to step up, but I think that will make the difference.

Here's our opening day line-up:

1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. 1B Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. C Kelly Shoppach
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera

We know what we'll get from Grady, more or less. The case that he should move down in the order is a valid one that's more or less defeated by the fact that a) we don't have another viable lead off hitter and b) we have plenty of power further down the order.

Mark DeRosa is going to be huge for us this year, particularly since we haven't gotten consistent production from the #2 spot since the second half of '07 when AC first came up. Victor Martinez has had a good spring and will only get better going forward. Obviously, there are concerns about Pronk, but he's shown a lot of improvement in the last week and a half. I have no problems with throwing him in the fire right off the bat. He's either going to hit or he won't, so why not? Besides, it keeps the order balanced and, as many people have pointed out, he's only the clean-up hitter if everyone ahead of him gets on base in the first inning. After that it really doesn't matter, and it certainly doesn't matter nearly as much as having balance.

Peralta is clearly our ace in the hole on offense and I have a feeling that more and more teams are going to realize that this year. The upside there is that they'll have to pitch to Choo, who has clearly had problems because of the WBC, but we've seen glimmers of what he's capable of. We also know what he can do when he gets consistent time in, so I have confidence in him (and Trevor Crowe, for that matter, if it comes to that).

The Kelly Shoppach/Ryan Garko #7 spot will be interesting to watch, as they're very similar types of hitters. As long as they can both remember that they don't have to hit for the fences every time out (and having six guys ahead of them who can all hit it out helps), they should really produce. Ben Francisco had a nice spring and it would appear that he's developing into the consistent player we all wondered if he could be. Asdrubal Cabrera has also had a nice spring, particularly compared to last year, and I think he lives and dies by his confidence level.

As for our bench, we have:

Garko/Shoppach (see above)
Josh Barfield
Trevor Crowe
Jamey Carroll

As much as I'd rather Crowe get every day ABs in Columbus, you do have to like the speed off the bench we have now. I know the Tribe can't really afford to eat $4 million, but it's nice seeing Crowe get a shot in the majors. And if Jamey Carroll does what he did last year, we should have one of the best benches in baseball.

Let's also not look over the guys we have waiting in the wings, like Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, the aforementiond Trevor Crowe (when Dellucci comes off the DL), Michael Aubrey (who had a great spring), and even Wes Hodges, who made a lot of people take notice in spring training.

As we move to the pitching, let's start with the good and move to the more questionable. Here's our bullpen:

Masa Kobayashi
Rafael Betancourt
Zach Jackson
Joe Smith
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis
Kerry Wood

You may know those last four guys on the list as part of the Guys With Really Low Spring ERAs club. All four dominated during the spring, with Wood only giving up runs in his last appearance. As for our middle relief, there are some serious question marks. Jackson won his job because he's a converted starter and can go multiple innings if needed, but he wasn't exactly impressive in spring training. He's also a lefty. But, his fatal flaw in the past has been that one big inning, so perhaps a middle relief role will get him in and out before that inning pops up.

Rafael Betancourt has been about as inconsistent as he was last year, periodically flashing glimpses of the '07 Betancourt, then reverting to the '08 version. I have no idea what we'll get out of him. Masa Kobayashi has been more or less awful all spring, and most Tribe fans are taking guesses at when he'll be sent down, most likely to be replaced by Vinnie Chulk, who had a great spring.

Regardless, the back end of our bullpen looks really, really impressive.

Now for the biggest question mark we have, our starting rotation:

Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes

I have no idea what to expect from Lee, given what he did last year as compared to what he did the year before and what he did in spring training. My best guess would be something between '05 (18-5, 3.79 ERA) and '06 (14-11, 4.40 ERA). I would guess 17 wins and an ERA around 3.50, which I'd be perfectly happy with, even it is a step down from last season.

Fausto Carmona, on the other hand, could be in a position to dominate. If the Tribe has a Cy Young candidate in the rotation this year, I think it's Fausto. He had a great spring and really seems to be returning to his '07 form. I think, by the end of the year, he'll be our ace.

Carl Pavano has gotten better in each of his spring starts. I don't expect him to go much past five innings most games, but I think he'll keep us in the game. I'm thinking something similar to the numbers I gave for Lee above, perhaps fewer wins.

Scott Lewis is a real question mark. He's struggle a great deal since winning a spot on the line-up and he's been giving up a lot of long balls. I'd hazard a guess, but I really have no idea. I'm not too concerned about it, though, as we have a number of guys who could step in for him.

Anthony Reyes had all of one bad outing this spring. I would expect him to pick up where he left off last season. I think he could actually be better than Pavano and get serious consideration as comeback player of the year, right behind Fausto. I do think Wedge will limit his innings, though.

And let's not forget that we should get Jake Westbrook back after the break (earlier, in fact, but I'd be shocked if they didn't hold him out for a while just to be safe). Jake could be the mid-season trade this team needs, really, which is huge. Let's not forget how he was throwing the ball last year before got hurt. He was really dominating, but getting no run support. If he can return to form, slotting him in as the #3 guy would be gold.

Of course we can also look at David Huff, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers, three guys who could show up at any point in the season. While none of them had the best springs, I think starting the season in Columbus will give them all the time they need to show they can take the next step.

So there you go -- the 2009 Clevelan Indians. I'm picking them to win the Central. Beyond that, I'm not saying, as just thinking about it makes me anxious.

As for the rest of baseball, here are my picks:

AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Mets

T-minus 3 Weeks and Counting!

Well, we've broken the three week mark until the opening of the new season and while I generally like to avoid making any kind of observations based upon the first few weeks of spring training, I'm going to do just that. There have been ups and downs already with each faction of the team, but the further along we get, the more and more excited I am, and the more confident I become that this team will actually compete, not just in the AL Central, but in the entire American League.

Rotation

I'm not putting a lot of stock into Cliff Lee's troubles (albeit from two starts). Lee earned the #5 spot in last year's rotation by being the lesser of three evils; he had an awful spring, but it was just a bit less awful than Aaron Laffey's and Jeremy Sower's. In fact, I actually feel pretty good about Lee having a bad spring, since it seemed to allow him to peak just in time for the season to start.

Fausto Carmona is a different story. He's had three outings, two good, one bad, but the last one was good, which is why I'm optimistic. It seems like both Carmona and the staff know exactly what he needs to do to be successful, which is a good sign. He also lost the majority of the weight he'd put on in the off season, which is also good.

Anthony Reyes hasn't pitched a whole lot of innings yet, but he hasn't given up a run yet, either. He appears to be both healthy and on his game.

Carl Pavano is healthy. He's also had two games a different as can be. Again, it's really too early to know, but I'm sure he'll get better as we get closer to opening day.

Perhaps the best thing to come out of spring training (well, one of a few) is the battle for the last spot. Aaron Laffey, Scott Lewis, and Jeremy Sowers all had great starts in their last outings; Lewis was the only one to even give up a run. Sowers got eight ground ball outs in four innings today, and started two double plays on his own. His ERA is 3.00. But while Laffey's ERA is at 7.00, he pitched four no hit innings in his last start. While Lewis looked good in his first appearance, I would handicap his odds, simply because he has the least MLB experience.

Still, to have three guys throwing that well this early in spring training bodes well for the fifth spot and possibly beyond, depending upon how are two reclamation projects (Reyes and Pavano) do.

Bullpen

I am as giddy as a school girl.

Sure, Kerry Wood has only thrown two innings so far (allowing a single hit and no runs), but he's been dominate in those two innings. Rafael Perez has only been in camp for a few days, but his performance in the World Baseball Classic was equally as dominant (even if the rest of his team decided not to show up). And Jensen freaking Lewis has been an absolute beast in each of his appearances; he's yet to allow a run and, from all accounts, he's going at guys like a closer.

We could have the best back end of the bullpen in baseball. No, really.

The loss of Adam Miller (again) was disappointing, but Vinnie Chulk appears primed for a rebirth. He pitched two more scoreless innings today, bringing his ERA down to 2.31 -- and he's gotten a good amount of work as the coaches try to evaluate him. He seems like the current favorite to get the last spot most of us assumed would go to Miller.

Kobayashi is a definite concern, but someone like Zach Jackson would be nice to have in the 'pen, both for length and because he's left handed.

Line-up

Anthony Castrovince over at www.clevelandindians.com made a good point the other day on why the front office are keeping Peralta at short instead of moving him to third. Sure, there's the matter of Peralta having to learn a new position as opposed to using DeRosa who already has big league experience at the hot corner. The bigger issue, though, is that it's not a given that Asdrubal Cabrera will stay in the line-up. At this point, he's yet to prove that he can produce on a regular basis, so the idea of moving our infield around to accommodate a guy who might not make it past the first month is, well, really, really premature.

If Cabrera does falter, the Tribe has a lot of options, options not named Josh Barfield.

Tony Graffanino, entering his 14th season, has really been hitting the ball so far this spring. Given DeRosa's ability to play the outfield, Carroll's ability to play every position in the infield, and Cabrera's ability to switch over to short stop, I wouldn't be surprised if the last spot on the roster goes to Graffanino instead of Barfield (who they're trying to get some time in the outfield). He's just performing much better than Barfield, who still has options left.

The other option is really encouraging, as well: Wes Hodges is having a really good spring. Were there suddenly an opening at second, it would be interesting to see if the Tribe would consider moving DeRosa over there and bringing up Hodges to play 3rd, perhaps platooning with Carroll until he gets comfortable in the majors. Regardless, it's a great to see him performing well, as he is, more or less, the future of third base for the Tribe.

I'll say this much: the Columbus Clippers should be really good this year!

I'm going to ponder DeRosa

Yes, that's a pun.

It's hard to argue with the trade for DeRosa. I mean, it's really, really hard to argue with it.

Now, in my pipe dream fantasy, the trade was the first part of a bigger move, a move that sends DeRosa and some young pitching to San Diego for Jake Peavy. After all, DeRosa was a big part of the talks between the Cubs and the Padres. And, to be perfectly honest, I'm much more comfortable having unknown quantities in our infield than I am in our rotation, as I think we can piece together good defense if need be.

I also figured Kelly Shoppach would be a good start for a trade to get Peavy, too. I know people love Kelly Shoppach, but the bottom line is that his trade value is never going to be higher and we have decent depth at catcher in the minors. That said, I'm afraid that Garko's inconsistent offense last season makes keeping Shoppach something of a necessity this year, so he can fill in for Martinez when Victor has to move over to first.

And I was also keen on getting Brian Roberts from Baltimore. Yes, it would have force major changes to the infield, but it also would have allowed Sizemore to move down in the order, something that would have given us more coverage in the middle of the line-up if Travis Hafner is a bust. Granted, that's assuming Wedge and Shapiro ever, ever realize it's time to move Grady down.

But let's live in the now and look at the reality of the situation.

Mark DeRosa's average from last year is better than anyone else on our roster from last year (Peralta led the team with a .276 avg.) He'd be tied for third in home runs (with Shoppach). He'd be fourth in RBI, just two behind Peralta. And he'd be second in runs scored, just 1 behind Peralta. In other words, that's some heavy duty offense we're adding to the team.

Putting DeRosa at third gives us a consistent bat there. Leaving Jhonny at short gives us a consistent bat there. And we now have at least three players battling for the starting job at second (Cabrera, Barfield, and Valbuena). With the flexibility of the Garko/Martinez/Shoppach platoon at first and behind the plate, our offense should be, at the very least, solid.

The question, of course, is whether or not Wes Hodges, after a single season at AAA (where he's never played) could grow enough to win the starting job at third in 2010, as we'll be right back where we started.

My big concern now is the rotation. Here's why:

Cliff Lee -- No one expects him to pitch like he did in '08, but something close to that is going to be needed in an American League filled with teams with multiple aces

Fausto Carmona -- just as we need the '08 Lee, we need the '07 Carmona. Let's hope last season was a result of his injury.

Anthony Reyes -- Can he stay healthy? Can he pitch like he did at the end of last year? Can he be consistent?

Scott Lewis -- Can HE pitch like he did at the end of last year for an entire year?

Aaron Laffey -- Can he turn the corner and pitch well for an entire year?

Jeremy Sowers -- Can he return to his first season form and maintain that for a year?

Zach Jackson -- Can he get past the one bad inning that always seems to bring him down?

David Huff -- Is he ready for the majors?

Jake Westbrook -- Will he come back at full strength by mid-season?

That's a lot of questions for an essential part of a team. I'll admit, it's nice to have 8 (and a half, if you count Westbrook) guys for just five spots, but still.

Spring training is going to be very interesting.

Standing Pat

In Anthony Castrovince's latest mailbag (you do read the best team blog online, right?), he mentions that Mark Shapiro more or less said that the Tribe blew it's wad of cash by signing Kerry Wood. What this means, basically, is that all remaining holes will be filled either internally, or through trades.

Since we can (and will) speculate until the cows come home about trades, let's work under the assumption that the Tribe is, officially, done, and that our line-up next year will be determined by Spring Training. Sound scary? Well, it's not quite as bad as you might think.

The addition of Kerry Wood (and Joe Smith) actually, on paper, gets this team to the post-season. Last season, the Tribe had 51 save opportunities and converted 31 of those, blowing 20. If Wood helps the Tribe pick up even 10 more saves (and realize that Borowski had just 6 last year) -- and you add that to our record last year -- we're 91-71, first place in the AL Central.

And what about our offense? The Tribe actually ended the year with the 6th most runs in the AL, although the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers were all ahead of us. But that was a year without Hafner (who, even if he was off in '07, still drove in over 100 runs) and basically without Martinez. With Shoppach getting extra at bats and the return of Martinez and (hopefully, but not neccessary for those numbers to remain the same) Hafner, the Tribe should be fine in the offense department. And, not to be mean, but the less at bats lost to Marte and Gutierrez will help, too.

So, then, what about fielding? The Tribe finished 9th in fielding. Moving Peralta to third will probably be a wash, but shouldn't drop our team score. Cabrera at short will most likely raise our score, and I would imagine any combination of Carroll/Barfield/Valbuena will hold even at second. The Garko/Martinez combo at first should stay the same and the Martinez/Shoppach combo will hold steady. Our outfield, while losing a great player in Gut, will still feature Choo (with a cannon of an arm), Sizemore ('nuff said) and Francisco. Should be pretty good.

Clearly, I'm willing to make a lot of assumptions here. Where, then, is the big concern? I think that's pretty obvious: our rotation.

There's no way we can count on Lee to repeat what he did this past year. That would just be insane. I have no idea which Fausto Carmona will show up. Anthony Reyes looked good in his few starts with us, but that assume he can a) stay healthy and b) maintain that production. Which leaves us with two open spots in the rotation, at least until mid-season, assuming (a big assumption) that Jake Westbrook returns and pitches like we all remember.

The upside is that we have a number of guys competing for those two spots, so we should, in theory, be able to get good people in there. The downside is that they're all really young. The list includes Aaron Laffey, the good Jeremy Sowers, the bad Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, Scott Lewis, the Zach Jackson for four good innings, and the Zach Jackson for one bad inning. That's five guys and two spots, which should make for some nice competition.

Given how the season ended, odds are that Lewis will make the cut. I would expect Laffey to win the other spot, unless Sowers has learned how to be consistent or Jackson has learned how to beat the one bad inning which always seems to ruin him.

Not unlike 2007, we're going to need a young arm to step up the way Fausto did if we're really going to make a run at it.

Off Season

Why do they call it the "Hot Stove?" Does anyone know?

Anyway, as things have progressed I've decided to revamp my ideas on what the Tribe should do during the off season. Here are my suggestions:

1) Sign Trevor Hoffman. Yes, I'm a big fan of Jensen Lewis, so much so that I even think he can step in and do the job if need be. But, I also see the advantage of having a guy like Hoffman in the interim, a guy who can not only save games for us, but also teach guys like Lewis and Adam Miller what it means to be a big league closer. And it's clear that he loves Cleveland and isn't looking for a long deal. Really, this should be the deal that all Cleveland fans are pushing for the most, as it's the one free agent signing that actually seems feasible. The Tribe needs to pull the trigger.

2) Trade Kelly Shoppach. You heard me. My reasons for this are many, but the main one is that Shoppach's trade value will never be higher than it is now. Why? Because he will never get the playing time he got last year unless he's starting somewhere else. I know that we can move Victor to 1st when we need to, but even if we go with some kind of rotating cast between catcher and first, Shoppach still won't play every day, which is ultimately what he did for almost the entire year in 2008.

And I know that people worry about dealing Shoppach when we don't know what to expect from Travis Hafner or even Ryan Garko. But you know what? We didn't have Martinez then, either, and there's no reason to believe Victor won't produce like he always will. Unlike Pronk or Garko, Victor has never lost his ability to produce when he's healthy. In other words, Shoppach's offensive pop will be filled by the guy whose spot he was filling.

There are so many teams out there looking for a young, power hitting catcher that the Tribe should be able to get a good deal, perhaps even some pitching (the Rangers were said to be talking to Boston about Justin Masterson, for crying out loud, and Shoppach is younger than anyone Texas has).

3) Make Adam Miller a reliever (already done!) and do whatever it takes to keep him healthy. Wrap your brain around this possibility in the 'pen: Hoffman, Lewis, Perez, Miller. I'd feel pretty good about the 8th and 9th with those four.

4) Deal for Brian Roberts. I know, I know, this is the rumor that won't die, but it makes all kinds of sense for both teams. The Orioles are not only in desperate need of pitching, they're in rebuilding mode (yet again). I don't know that a guy like Jeremy Sowers is a big enough prize to be the center piece of any such trade, so it might mean giving up someone like Laffey, Lewis, or Huff. I would also guess the addition of a guy like Barfield and/or one of our outfielders might be needed. But, in the end, the Tribe would kill two birds with one stone: we'd shore up our infield, we'd add a proven lead off hitter, and we'd solidify the middle of our order by moving Grady down to third. This deal would fix A LOT of our problems in one move.

Those are my four suggestions. I could go farther and include my various daydreams (like the Tribe dealing for Jake Peavy), but I'll try to stay as realistic as possible.

December is only a few days away -- the time for deals is soon...

What I Think/Hope We'll See

I'm sure I'm jumping the gun here, but I would like to point out that I called Jensen Lewis as future closer last year. I'm just sayin'.

After much deliberation, some thought as to the Tribe's money issues, and some consideration of the free agent market, I've decided that this will be our line-up next year (and I'm hoping beyond hope on some of it):

1) Grady Sizemore, CF: I'm willing to concede Grady batting lead off. Why? Because I think we'll have enough power in the rest of the line-up with Pronk and Martinez back. And Grady does tend to set the tone for games, particularly when he goes yard.

2) Ben Francisco, LF: I think Benny's done a good job of proving himself this year, particularly getting stuck in the three hole so often. He's hitting for average these days and he's got some untapped speed.

3) Travis Hafner, DH: If he's healthy, we're great. If not, well, I think we'll have some depth next year.

4) Victor Martinez, 1st: Yes, put him at first base. He can catch when Shoppach needs a day off and we can keep Garko on the bench as back-up catcher/first baseman.

5) Jhonny Peralta, 3rd: Yes, put him at third base. He clearly isn't the defensive short stop that we need, but he has a big bat, something we haven't had at the corners in some time.

6) Shin Soo Choo, RF: He's definitely turned it on lately. He's got a great arm and he's really hitting the ball.

7) Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: Yes, put him at short stop so the Cleveland fans can get the short stop they're used to having. He's starting to get more disciplined at the plate these days, which is why I have him batting seventh and not ninth.

8) Kelly Shoppach, C: Yes, put him behind the plate full time. He's got nice pop that will be good to have towards the bottom of the order, just like we used to have with Casey. His power will be nice behind Cabrera, too.

9) Josh Barfield, 2nd: I'm assuming a lot for Barfield here, not the least of which is that he'll start hitting the ball. He's got speed, though, so if he can just start getting on base more often he'd be a great threat, particularly with Grady hitting at the top of the order.

Bench:

Jamey Carroll
Ryan Garko
Franklin Gutierrez
David Dellucci (yes, I know)

Rotation:

Cliff Lee (hopefully as good as he's been this year)
Fausto Carmona (fully recovered)
Aaron Laffey
Adam Miller
Anthony Reyes

I think Laffey will be fine after some down time in Buffalo to end the season. Assuming Miller is healthy, he can be huge. I think Reyes will get the nod over Sowers, who has still been inconsistent. Zach Jackson's performance has been interesting. He and Sowers should provide some good depth for us.

David Huff is an interesting case. His ERA is under 3 and he's average a K per inning. He can be pretty dominant, but I have to wonder, given our needs, if he might be the flamethrower out of the bullpen that we've been looking for.

Keep in mind that I'm not counting on Jake Westbrook for anything, since he'll be coming back from surgery. But there's a chance we could see him in time for the post-season.

So my theoretical bullpen would be:

Jensen Lewis
Rafael Perez
David Huff
Rafael Betancourt (I know)
Masa Kobayashi (I know)
Unnamed free agent reliever
Unnamed free agent reliever

I don't think the Tribe will give up on Betancourt or Kobayashi given the money they've invested and, honestly, a good off season program could get them where they need to be.

I'm currently of the opinion that we should save the money we'd spend on a closer and use it to get two middle relievers. We need more bang for our buck and I have faith in Lewis.

That is the team that will win us a World Series.

No, really!

Not drastic, per se

It's time for the Indians to quit being pansies.

Or, at least it's time for the decision makers to quit being pansies.

A few things that inform this statement:

1. Jhonny Peralta has been hitting like crazy lately.
2. Ryan Garko has not.
3. Neither has Andy Marte.
4. Kelly Shoppach, however, has also been hitting like crazy lately.
5. Asdrubal Cabrera could be an All-Star shortstop
6. Grady Sizemore will have 30+ home runs this year.

These things add up to the Tribe needing to just suck it up and make some changes next year.

Jhonny Peralta, who plays 3rd base in his winter league, needs to play 3rd base in his spring and summer league, too.

You match that move by making Victor Martinez the every day 1st baseman. He was originally an infielder, remember. And, look at that! Suddenly we have bats at the corners again.

Shoppach becomes the every day catcher and we've got some potential additional power in the line-up every day. Ryan Garko (assume he beats out Michael Aurbry or Jordan Brown) becomes the Brandon Inge of the team, backing up Martinez AND Shoppach (Garko is a converted catcher).

Asdrubal then moves in at short where he belongs and second is left up for grabs between Jamey Carroll and Josh Barfield.

In the outfield, I think we can count on Grady and Ben Francisco winning spots. Beyond that, you have Franklin Gutierrez, Shin Soo Choo, and Trevor Crowe battling for two remaing spots (assuming we release David Dellucci as we should).

And, of course, we move Grady down in the batting order, for the of god.

As for our rotation, we build around Lee and Carmona, of course, with hopes that Laffey works out his issues in Buffalo and Sowers' new turn around is for real. That would leave us with one open spot for either a free agent or perhaps someone like David Huff or Anthony Reyes, who will probably get called up in place of Ginter in the near future.

What about Adam Miller, you ask? Even working under the assumption that he's healthy, I think it's safe to say he's going to the bullpen. If we're goinly going to get a certain amount of innings out of him every year, better they happen over more games.

And what about that bullpen -- who will try to fix what went horribly wrong this year? I would say we'll see Perez, for sure, plus Kobayashi and I would imagine Miller and Meloan, who we got for Casey Blake. That's four. The next two spots will be a toss up between Betancourt, Lewis, Mujica, and Donally, who will probably get the call from Buffalo soon. I think Mastny is done for the Tribe. This would leave a spot open for a closer, a real closer, in the form of...

...Huston Street. You heard me. I think the Tribe will deal for him instead of forking over the gajillions of dollars it will take to sign one of the free agent closers that hit the market after this year. They'll probably send a AA pitcher and whichever outfielder doesn't make the cut.

Those are my guess, anyway.

Regardless, it's time for this team to change it up a bit.

That was quick.

A four game winning streak before the break, a series win on the road after the break, and taking the first game of a three game series from the best team in baseball. Like Pavlov's dog, we all started salivating, visions of the triumphant return of Fausto Carmona, visions of continued great pitching performances from Paul Byrd, visions of the triumphant return of Victor Martinez, and, of course, the return to form of Rafael Perez. Oh, and don't forget that Masa struck out the side for the save. Have Tribe fans ever been so happy this season?

But a team that just swept the Red Sox isn't going to rollover and die. And 48 hours later, the Tribe had lost two straight, lost the series, and was now back to being 13 games back and 12 games under .500.

Ah, a cold bath of reality for all of us crazy Tribe fans.

So what do we do now? What should our next steps be?

Well, the most obvious is to deal Casey Blake, which seems to be in the works. As much as I've enjoyed watching Casey play lately, it's too little, too late for us. Let's try to get a few prospects in return.

Paul Byrd pitched great against the Angels, but he doesn't have many starts left before the trade deadline, so I don't know how much value he'll have on the market. You also have to wonder, if he's starting to turn a corner, would the Tribe think of bringing him back? I know he's been pretty bad so far this year, but if he can get back to where he was last year, he'd probably be a steal for a one year deal as a fifth starter. And it's pretty clear that we need the depth.

Then again, I suppose we could deal him and re-sign him again next year if he does turn it around.

Tom Mastny needs to be sent back down and I don't like his odds for next year.

The worst part of the Mastny meltdown was that our bullpen had seemed to turn a corner. Rafael Perez, Edward freaking Mujica, and Masa Kobayashi seemed to be working out great. But we quite obviously can't pitch them every day. But at least it's something to build on going forward.

As much as people are clamoring for the Tribe to spend a lot of money in the offseason, we all know it won't happen, not just because we're not that team, but also because we need bullpen help. Bullpen help is expensive. So if we're going to sign a reliever, chances are good we won't have the money to sign a bat. We're going to need our injured guys to come back strong.

I still like our chances for next year. I think we have a solid core. And the rest of the season should be interesting. We have these things to watch for:

1) Who will get traded and for whom?
2) Can Cliff Lee win the Cy Young?
3) Will Andy Marte step up?
4) Will Ryan Garko come back?
5) Will Aaron Laffey get back on track?
6) Will Fausto return to form?
7) Will Victor return to form?
8) Will Pronk return to form?
9) Is Mujica the real deal?
10) Can Masa close regularly?

There are more, of course, but those are the ones I'm watching for. I'd also like to see the Tribe at least hit .500 by the end of the year, but that might be asking a lot.