2012 Indians: All Is Not Lost

Before this season, I predicted the Tribe would go 82-80.  The way they are playing right now, that seems inevitable, and perhaps even optimistic.  But there is hope.

I don't mean that there's hope for this season.  There really isn't much of that.  There's no reason to believe that the return of Travis Hafner and the addition of Cord Phelps will turn the offense around so dramatically, or at least return it to what it was before Hafner was hurt.  I'm sure it will get better, but I can't imagine it will be what it was at the start of this year.

There's also the simple fact that the Tigers are a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost.  Even with a healthy line-up, the Tribe doesn't have any offense that can match Detroit's.

One thing that people seem to be ignoring during this Cleveland/Detroit series is the fact that the White Sox are now only 4.5 back.  Again, they're a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost.  This, then, would give the Tribe two teams with payrolls twice as large as theirs that they have to contend with to win the division.  The odds of that are not great.

Because this is parity in baseball; the big market teams can compete every year, the mid and small market teams can compete every 4 to 5 years.

And that's fine.  I've accepted that.  It's not good, but it is what it is.

All that said, Tribe fans should be focusing on the good that has already come out of this season instead of the fact that we're no longer in first place.

Justin Masterson has shown he can be a real starter.  He's gotten hosed by the offense as late, but his ERA stands at 3.16.  What's particularly amazing about this is the fact that he still can't get out lefties; they hit .308 against him!  It's mind boggling that he would be pitching so well with such an obvious hole in his armor.  But this also means that, if he finds a way to at least lower his BAA for lefties, he could be even better than he is now.

We've all heard how great Carlos Carrasco's "stuff" is, and now we're beginning to see it.  It's clear that Carrasco is beginning to mature right before our eyes, and a full season under his belt will only take him that much further.  Imagine where he could be come next year.

Alex White proved that he's ready for the big leagues.  His injury has hurt the team, but, if the Tribe is smart, they'll bring him back to the Show when he's off the DL.  A half season in the Majors can only help him at this point.  But he showed that he's not over matched by big league hitters.

Mitch Talbot is a strange case.  When he's good, he's dominate, but when he's bad...it gets ugly quick.  But having a guy like him in the back of the rotation would be great, assuming he can stay healthy.

It's hard to say what's wrong with Fausto Carmona.  The man who fought off the midge invasion seems to crack under pressure these days.  Carmona's a tricky situation for the Tribe.  His trade value has to be pretty low right now.  But if he starts pitching well again, would the Tribe deal him?  He has team friendly options on his contract, so trading him away (assuming he improves) seems like a bad idea, particularly if the Tribe is planning on contending next season.

Josh Tomlin is currently going through is inevitable fall back to earth after a ridiculous start.  Tomlin will never be anything more than a four or five starter, but at least he throws strikes.  I'm not entirely sure there's a place for him next year, which is strange to say given how well he's pitched this season.

And, of course, there's Drew Pomeranz, who has dominated at the minor league level and is currently following the Alex White schedule of promotion.  He's currently in advanced A at Kinston, where's he got a 2.01 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 53.2 innings.  I would expect him to send the season with the AA Akron Aeros and to start next season with the AAA Columbus Clippers.  And I would guess we'll see him at mid-season next year, which would be like trading for a great starter.

Adding Cord Phelps to the line-up hasn't really paid any dividends yet, but it's a good move.  While Lonnie Chisenhall hasn't been lighting it up so far this season, his time will come, as will Jason Kipnis'.  It will be interesting to see what kind of battle we might get between Phelps and Kipnis at second; Phelps could get a real leg up for next season if manages to start hitting in the majors.

It also bares repeating that Grady Sizemore is coming back from an injury.  Yes, I know he came out of the gate like a raging bull, but it was only a matter of time before he dropped down.  His timing is clearly off at the plate.  This, I think it's safe to assume, will get worked out over time.

And another year is that much distance between Choo and his DUI.

I truly believe this team has a chance to win the division next year, if not go to the World Series.  I said as much a few months back.  And I'm fine with waiting.  I'll take my fond memories from the first part of this season and store them away until next year.

And I'll spend this season watching a .500 slowly transform into a winner.