Monday, June 30, 2008

Indians @ White Sox, 6/30/08

Since I'm such a prolific blogger, I'm now on a once a week schedule with this blog, so the game of the day title will usually be irrelevant.

But today's game is important (and we're currently losing 3-1) because it is most likely the beginning of the end. Even if the Tribe were to sweep the White Sox, they'd still be 6.5 games back with two other teams between them and Chicago. It would take a multi-game win streak to turn this ship around and we haven't been able to do that all year.

Which means it's time to look at who's expendable. I offer you, gentle reader, this list:

Sabathia
Sowers
Byrd
Borowski
Gutierrez
Dellucci
Marte
Blake
Peralta
Garko
Shoppach

Barfield's probably only safe because he's on the DL.

Yes, I think even Garko and Shoppach are on the line. With Michael Aubrey and Jordan Brown heating up in Buffalo, I think Garko's in a dangerous position. And while it would be a really bold move to trade Shoppach, there's no denying that he has a great deal of value, as many teams would love him as their every day catcher.

I will say this much: there's a certain freedom that comes with the idea that we can make deals for next year. We have so many holes to fill, that starting now can only help.

Let's look at the positives, though -- the best case scenarios, if you will.

Cabrera has been hitting like crazy in Buffalo, so hopefully that's something that will stick with him when he eventually gets recalled.

It's clear that Victor and Pronk had legitimate reasons for their performances this year (and before anyone starts talking about Pronk last year, remember that the guy still had 100 RBI). Let's say their stints on the DL get them back in prime form.

It's pretty clear that Choo and Francisco could be big time players given regular playing time to get experience, which they should get from here on out.

Grady will be Grady.

That's a good start right there.

Our bullpen will be another issue. That could be where we spend the most of our money.

As for the rotation, we'll have to go get at least one free agent, depending upon how much dealing we do. As of right now we'd have Carmona, Lee, Laffey, and Sowers, with (in theory) Miller stepping in, assuming (big assumption) he's healthy. David Huff would also be in the mix, I think, after spending the rest of this season in Buffalo. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'll be completely happy with a rotation built around Carmona, Lee, and Laffey.

Here's a good way to look at our future: with Casey officially gone next year, we can go out and sign a big bat at third. Add that to a healthy Pronk and Victor and suddenly we have an offense again.

Overly optimistic? Sure, but at this point that's all we have.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Dodger Blew

I went to the Tribe game yesterday, braving the sweltering Southern California heat to witness a one run loss. Fortunately, our field level seats (which were amazing) were just under the overhang, so we stayed out of the sun.

Living in Los Angeles, I watch a lot of Dodgers games. I'm a sucker for baseball and HD TV. And I've never really had an issue with the Dodgers or their fans. I'm re-thinking that now.

A few years ago, the Dodgers FINALLY returned to the post-season. They lost in the division series to the Cardinals, 3-1. After they were eliminated (in Los Angeles), they came out and shook hands with the opposing team, a sight you don't normally see in the majors. It was very...lovey dovey.

It was odd, to say the least, but I thought nothing more of it.

Until yesterday.

Some context: The Tribe had one the first two games of this three game series. They were going for the sweep yesterday, while the Dodgers were looking to prevent being swept at home. These two teams haven't met up since 2003 in a series in Cleveland, so there's no much in the way of rivalry or even familiarity.

And yet yesterday I watched (and listened) as Dodger fans would yell things like "You suck, Garko!" whenever Ryan Garko would come to the plate. They would repeat that witty banter for more or less every Indians' batter, even going so far as to yell "good-bye" to any player who struck out.

I thought that was really strange. I mean, it wasn't like we were the Giants or something. Why would they possibly have such animosity towards the Indians? Surely this wasn't holdover frustration from the 1920 World Series when they were known as the Brooklyn Robins.

When the game ended, it got worse. As god as my witness, had I not been aware of the situation I would have thought the Dodgers had just won the pennant. For that matter, Dodger fans started shooing Tribe fans out of their stadium with an arrogance that's second only to Yankee fans.

I was expecting happiness and relief at avoiding a sweep. I didn't expect jubilation and hubris.

While initially I got pretty defensive about this (I believe I pointed out that we'd won the series to more than a few Dodger fans), as time passed I began to realize just how sad it was. This is an organization that should be on par with the Yankees; they should be the West Coast equivalent of the Evil Empire. They should compete for their division every year and win it more often than not.

Famous Dodgers color man Vin Skully once commented (and there was context to this) that he thought it might be interesting if MLB went back to 8 teams in each league. There's no way you could widdle the National League down to 8 teams and NOT keep the Dodgers. They're a storied organization.

But all they have is their past. Their present has been sad and their future doesn't appear to be any brighter.

Maybe shaking hands after a sorry showing in the NLDS was as good as it gets for them these days. Maybe they have to take what they can get and hold on to it with both hands...or one, rather, as the other will be shaking hands with the team that just eliminated them.

So perhaps I'll look past the sad, sorry excuse for fans I met yesterday in Chavez Ravine. Because it was unbearable hot and I can't imagine they were very happy...and probably haven't been for a long time.

Friday, June 20, 2008

C.C.

I think the writing is on the wall. The baseball gods have spoken: It's time to trade C.C.

Too many things have fallen into place to let me believe keeping C.C. Sabathia is our best move. Let's look at them all:

1. C.C. doesn't re-sign before the season begins. Evidently, there's still distance between what the Tribe offered and what he wants.

2. The Tribe is bad. We just got swept by the Rockies, we're now in fourth place, and we're 8.5 games out of first place.

3. Our DL is well populated. Every time I think this team might be able to get it together, I remember that we're out 40% of our starting rotation and 44% of our starting line-up.

4. Aces are dropping like flies. The Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers have all lost their aces in the last TEN DAYS. The Red Sox also lost their depth, with Colon going on the DL and Schilling officially lost for the year. Like I said, all of this news came within the last week and a half. That HAS to be a sign.

Right there we have reasons for the Tribe to deal C.C. and four big market teams who could afford him.

I'll admit: I'll get choked up when he goes. C.C. has been a fixture in the rebuilding process for this team. He has meant nearly as much as Grady Sizemore has with regards to the team's image. It really won't be the same without him.

But we won't re-sign him and we're not going to compete now, so we need to get what we can.

I think the Cubs are the most likely spot for him to go. They are DESPERATE for a championship and seem willing to pay any price to get one. C.C. also handles the stick pretty well, so I think he'd be great in the NL. I'm not so sure about the Dodgers, though, simply because they have way more problems than just the loss of their ace.

I can't see the Red Sox really putting much into it considering how well they've done without Schilling and Colon and considering they'll have a chance to get C.C. on the free agent market next year. And I can't see the Tribe sending C.C. to New York unless they get someone like Phillip Hughes in a package with other prospects, and the Yankees seem unwilling to move him.

So let's hope he goes to the Cubs and that the Cubs have a few relievers in their system.

Because, honestly, I like the core of what we'd come back with next year. I'll take a rotation built around Carmona, Lee, and Laffey. I'll take an offense built around Sizemore, Francisco, Choo, and Garko. If we can get Pronk and Victor back to form next year, then that's a pretty good looking line-up. I have no idea what we do about the rest of our infield, but it's a start.

But, yeah, I think it's time to pull the trigger. Hey, you never know, maybe we'll just leave C.C. with the Dodgers after this weekend.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Fun and Games

You know, a few weeks ago this team was damn near unwatchable.

And it's not just the fact that they're actually winning more often than they lose lately. It's the fact that we now have reasons to watch, reasons like Ben Francisco, Shin Soo Choo, and the unreal Jamey Carroll.

I can't imagine that any or all of them will continue to hit like they have, but it's still entertaining to watch. There's just something about seeing young guys take advantage of getting the call, or seeing a lifelong utility guy get the shot at a starting gig that makes you want to watch every at bat of every game.

So thank god for those guys.

In other news, the worlds "Yankees" and "Indians" have been in the news a lot lately following the injury to Chien-Ming Wang. The Yankees are clearly desperate for starting pitching now, having lost their ace until September. The whole world is wondering if New York will make an offer for C.C. Sabathia, as if they could just ask and get him.

This puts Shapiro in something of a rough spot. If he trades Sabathia, it's a pretty clear sign that we're not going to complete this year, no matter how good Carmona, Lee, and Laffey might be at any given moment. C.C. is our ace and has pitched like it for the last month plus. Considering the fact that the Indians are going to have to something like over .600 the rest of the season to come anywhere close to the record they had last year means we need every quality start we can get.

On the other hand, I don't think anyone has much faith in Sabathia returning to the Tribe after this year. So the idea of getting guys who are further along than two draft picks would be nice -- but would the Yankees even have anything like that to offer?

In the end, I have to believe it's going to come down to a few factors:

1) How does the Tribe do in the next week? If we can pick up another game in the next week, you have to think we'll stay pat, considering we have Fausto coming up at the end of the month, Pronk a few weeks off, and Victor in August, hopefully.

2) What does New York have to offer? Most sports journalists seem to think that there's no way the Tribe will take any deal that doesn't include Philip Hughes (and others, of course), a guy most sports journalists also think the Yankees won't move. While I have my reservations about Hughes, I think the Indians could help him reach is potential, particularly if he goes to Buffalo first (which he would, I imagine, if Jeremy Sowers manages to hold on to the open spot in Cleveland after C.C. leaves).

3) What does C.C. want? You have to figure that, at some point, Shapiro is just going to have to sit down with Sabathia and his agent and say "look, I have to do what's best for the organization. Keeping you would be ideal, but if we can't afford to re-sign you, then I need to get something back in return to keep this team afloat."

I can't see the Yankees parting with much major league ready talent just for a possible half season rental in the form of Sabathia.

I'm torn, honestly. Every time I see the big man pitch, I think "we HAVE to re-sign him -- he means to much to this team." But when I think about it logically, I just don't see how we can tie up that much money in one player, particularly one who only plays every fifth game.

This would all be a lot easier if Adam Miller could stay healthy.

Friday, June 13, 2008

That makes sense...?

And now it's all becoming clear.

Or at least some of it.

I think.

So Victor Martinez is on the DL and will be out for the next six weeks at least. Evidently he -- and Travis Hafner -- have been playing hurt all year, as evidenced by the numbers (as well as Victor started, he hasn't hit for power at all this year).

The power outage from our big two actually explains a lot about the rest of the line-up, too.

You can tell that Ryan Garko, Jhonny Peralta, and Franklin Gutierrez were all swinging through the ball, as if they needed to show more power since Victor and Pronk weren't showing any. Add to that the sophomore slump from Cabrera, and that's 2/3 of our line-up right there.

And while Wedge might argue that an injured Martinez in the line-up is better than no Martinez at all, I don't think that's true, particularly given the events of last night.

Sure, we're a better team with Victor -- we're a much better team. But we have a catcher that other teams have been trying to trade from us for their starter, a guy who can call a good game and, while he'll never hit for average the way Victor can, has good power. So why not put that guy in every day until Victor is healthy?

It also seems that Ryan Garko and, to a lesser extent, Franklin Gutierrez learned from their early season mistakes and are back to hitting like we know they can, like they should. Clearly, Jhonny's a bit behind the curve on that one, but Garko went to Stanford.

It probably didn't hurt matters that both Garko and Gutierrez saw their time dwindle with call-ups.

And what about those call-ups? Our top two hitters are Shin Soo Choo and Ben Francisco. Who knew?

One other positive side effect of the injuries: we now have the most consistent hitting infielder on our team in the line-up every day. Could Jamey Carroll keep this job? It's possible, although in three games in Buffalo Cabrera is already hitting .333 -- and he was shut out in one of those three games. Clearly, that's a man who was forcing the issue in Cleveland and is hitting just fine with the pressure off.

So can the Tribe win with 40% of their starters on the DL (one until next year), 33% of their roster on the DL, and an ineffective bullpen? Strangely enough, I think so, and I was about to suggest selling the farm when Victor went down.

If the offense can keep hitting, I think we have a real shot at being competitive. But I think we need to make a few more changes. They are:

1) Grady Sizemore needs to move down the order. I know that will be hard for a lot of people because we all love the "unique" aspect of having Grady up there. But our HOME RUN LEADER shouldn't be in the lead off spot. Grady is evolving into a true #3 and every game just hammers this point home. With the team low on power, it just makes sense to move him.

1a) Consider this my first official foray into the "Jamey Carroll for lead off" campaign.

2) Whichever of the four great, young outfielders doesn't play in the field should DH. They need all the at bats they can get and while I appreciate the desire for experience in the line-up, Dellucci isn't exactly knocking the cover off the ball lately. Let the kids get some hacks in there.

3) Might I suggest sticking with (at the very least) this for the next week (at least):

1. Carroll
2. Francisco
3. Sizemore
4. Garko

I'd love to see what that top of the order could do day in and day out for a week or so.

As for the bullpen, well, if our offense plays well then we can concentrate on making a deal for relief. And while I think our problems are across the board in there (aside from Perez, who's been good lately, and Elarton, who has pitched out of his head lately), Huston Street should be on our radar. Peter Gammons mentions a few weeks back that the A's have a new closer in waiting and that they'd probably be willing to trade Street even if they were still in contention. He specifically named the Tribe as a team that would benefit from a guy like Street, which is the god's honest truth. The concern, of course, is that Street can be somewhat delicate physically, but I'll take a lights out closer every third day than Borowski every second day.

We'd still be in a pinch for set-up guys. We really need Betancourt to turn it around, let alone Lewis in Buffalo. But with the additon of Street we'd at least have long relief in Elarton, a lefty in Perez, and set-up in Masa, to go with a dominant closer.

I'd take that.

And now, let the abomination that is interleague play begin!

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Crossroads

Don't look now, but the Tribe has to do better than .600 for the rest of the season to have any hope of ending with a good enough record to make the post-season. Kind of seems like a pipe dream at the moment, doesn't it?

And yet we enter a three game series with the Twins tonight only two games behind them, just two games out of second place. Yes, I know we're still 8.5 games out of first, but we're going to have to take baby steps with this, people.

So where's the good news?

Well, it would appear that Ryan Garko has learned how to hit again. And while our outfield definitely lacks in power, we're really starting to see how formidable they could be down the line. Choo is hitting .333 in eight games. That's eight hits -- 5 for extra bases (four doubles and a home run), a stat the Tribe is sorely lacking in. He also has 5 RBI and scored 5 times. Not bad at all.

Ben Francisco is coming down to earth a bit, but he's still hitting .302. On May 30th, Franklin Gutierrez was hitting .236. He's now up to .252, a pretty nice upswing which hopefully will continue. And, of course, there's Grady, who leads the team in home runs and is always a threat to do pretty much anything.

But we're obviously not going to get power from the outfield any time soon, which means it's got to come from the infield. Victor Martinez only has 11 extra base hits, all doubles. And, as we've seen lately, Garko is better off when he doesn't try to hit it out.

In other words, we need the old Pronk back in a bad way.

And let's not even get into the bullpen.

Let's face facts, we need to play small ball and we need our starts to go at least six innings every time out. That's the only way we're going to win until we get our bullpen patched up and Travis Hafner returns from whatever planet he was kidnapped to and replaced by this guy we've seen lately.

But we've got a struggling Twins team and a Padres team that scores less than we do coming in to the Jake this week. If there were ever a time to get things going, it would be now.

Site News: For those of you who might actually read this thing, it's now part of what I like to consider a network of sites and blogs, all created by yours truly. The main hub is www.kylegarret.com. I have two other blogs as well as a page on the main site with samples of my writing that's updated every Sunday.

What does that mean? Well, that means there are six days a week for three blogs, which means twice weekly updates. This one will be updated every Tuesday and Friday.

You know, in case you wanted to mark your calendars.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Bright Spots?

June came in just about as badly as May left, worse, if you consider the fact that we didn't even have good starting pitching today.

Is there a bright light in all this? How can we stay positive when our entire line-ups seems determine to swing at the first pitch they see when they have runners in scoring position? How do we stay positive when our players seem unwilling and unable to bunt or take pitches? How do we stay positive when we have a new line-up every day?

Simple: trades. Let's face facts, even with Carmona (and now Miller...AGAIN) on the DL, we still have depth at the starting job. And there are plenty of teams out there who need pitching.

Bright Spot #1: The Orioles are in last place in the AL East. The longer they sit down there, the better the chances that Brian Roberts will be available for the right price.

Bright Spot #2: Jeremy Sowers pitched 7 innings today in Buffalo, giving up 1 earned run. His ERA is 2.08. The better Sowers does in Buffalo, the greater his trade value. The optimist in me would love to deal him instead of Laffey, but the realist thinks that Laffey's MLB performance makes him more likely to go. Still, Sowers' number indicate that at least he'd be able to step up and keep the rotation performing at the same level.

Bright Spot #3: The Rockies are still in last place and don't appear to be going anywhere any time soon. This means that Garrett Atkins should be available for the right price.

Bright Spot #4: Grady Sizemore's sudden burst of power. I'll get to that in a minute.

Bright Spot #5: Pronk on the DL. Whether he gets better and comes back like the Pronk of old or not, he needed to be removed from the line-up (not that we have anyone better to replace him).

So going by the numbers, Garrett Atkins would seem to be the best pick-up for the Tribe. He's hitting .313 with 8 HR, 30 RBI, and 28 runs. That's pretty impressive and I doubt I could make a case for anyone else. But I'm going to and it will sound at least a little irrational, but follow me.

By comparison, Brian Roberts is only hitting .267, has only 4 HR, only 18 RBI, and has scored only two more times, giving him 30 runs. However, he does have 14 stolen bases, compared to known for Atkins.

Atkins currently has just 9 walks to his 35 strikeouts. Roberts has nine more strikeouts, but also has 30 (yes, 30) walks.

Here's the kicker: Atkins currently bats 4th for the Rockies. Roberts is the lead off man for the Orioles.

Looking at Roberts' numbers, they're actually very similar to Grady's, aside from the fact that Sizemore now has 11 HR and Roberts takes more walks.

In other words, we get Atkins we get a good power bat to add to the middle of a line-up that doesn't exactly get on base a lot.

We get Roberts, we get a lead off batter who takes a lot of walks. Then we can move Grady's power down the order to, say, #3. And while Francisco is still getting a hit every game, he's not hitting for power and probably never will. So we go something like this:

Roberts
Francisco
Sizemore
Martinez

That's a pretty nice top of the order. Granted, it would all go to hell after that unless people start to improve, but there you go. I think adding Roberts would actually improve the line-up more, even though his numbers are less than Atkins.

And, hey, maybe there's a chance we could get him for Sowers and one other player (most likely Peralta, but at this point I'm fine with that).