The common perception was that this past week was going to be the true test of whether or not this Indians team was really going to be able to compete for first in the Central Division. And, like every other thing we've seen from this team so far this year, the answer is still unclear. Had they gone, say, 2-5 or 1-6, I think we could put a fork in them. Had they gone 5-2 or 6-1, we'd have real reason to be excited for the rest of this season. After all, the Red Sox and the Rangers are two of the best teams in all of the American League; taking them on -- on the road, no less -- was going to be a big challenge.
We went 3-4 on this road trip, which really isn't that bad, considering the opponents. On top of that, the Tribe lost those 4 games by a combined total of 5 runs. If a hit or a pitch had gone our way in three of those games, we'd have come out of this week with a winning record.
The real bright spot in the past week was the offense. Granted, they were playing in hitter friendly parks, but they were also facing good pitching. While Santana had spurts of greatness and awfulness, the 1-4 we're currently throwing out there every day (Brantley, Kipnis, Cabrera, and Hafner) looks like it could be the real deal. Fukudome has also started coming along. Honestly, when Choo returns I would expect/hope for him to go into the #5 spot, possibly moving Santana as low as #7 and leaving Fukudome where he's at.
The obvious dark spot was the bullpen, who struggled most of the week. I'd like to chalk that up to overuse because, let's face facts, most of those guys haven't pitched this much before. It also might be time to think about making a few changes. It's obvious that Acta is remiss to use either Hermann or Durbin in serious situations. The further we get into the season and the more important each game becomes, it's clear that we can't afford to have a bullpen with ostensibly only five pitchers.
The day off tomorrow is a double edged sword. On one hand, it would be great to get back out there and get the bad taste out of our mouths after a tough loss. But a day off could definitely help the bullpen.
The upcoming three game series against the Tigers is obviously a big one. The Tribe has to win the series, and even then they'll only pick up one game. A sweep is the best possible outcome, but Verlander is pitching the third game, so that's going to be tough. Still, taking tow out of three would be pretty fantastic, and, I think, a big lift for this team.
So we still don't know if this team is for real or not, but at least we've made it this far with at least some spark of hope.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Thoughts on the Big Trade
It's hard to believe that the Indians had yet another walk off home run tonight and that is probably the secondary story on the Tribe tonight.
The big news, of course, is the "almost done" trade that sends Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Matt McBride, and Joe Gardner to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez.
My gut reaction is that I hate to see both Pomeranz and White on that list. But I can get over that, because I think that this is ultimately a good deal for the Indians. Here are my reasons:
1) Jimenez has struggled this year, but his big problems have come at home, place known as Coors Field. The Rockies' stadium is the most pitcher unfriendly park in baseball. Jimenez's ERA at Coors is closer to 6 than 5. His ERA everywhere else is 2.83. Granted, he's been in the NL, but his numbers away from Coors are better than everyone in our rotation but Masterson.
2) Alex White has never been projected at anything higher than a #3 starter, so losing him is more of a product of the fact that he's a guy we actually drafted, and we've had so few home grown pitchers make it to the major league team. Pomeranz, of course, projects as an ace. The problem, however, is that these are projections. There's no guarantee that he'll pan out, although I do think he will. Still, at the earliest we'd see him next year, more more likely 2013, which is a ways off.
3) Yes, this is a deal made because the Tribe is (now) only 1.5 games out of first place. But let's not look past the fact that this is also a trade for the future. Jimenez is locked in through 2013, with an option for 2014 (although he can void that since he was traded). This means that heading into next year (and probably the year after), the Tribe won't be wondering who's going to be in their rotation. In fact, they'll have about 9 guys between Cleveland and Columbus who could make a go of it, and suddenly two guaranteed front of the rotation guys in Jimenez and Masterson.
4) I would expect Carrasco to get sent down to make room for Jimenez. He clearly needs to work something out given his last 5 starts. I don't have a lot of faith in Huff, but he's been really good since getting called up, so no reason to send him down. But let's not forget what Carrasco did in his 5 starts before those. He obviously has the stuff to be a front end guy, and perhaps sending him back down to AAA will turn him around. But, again, if we can get him straightened out, that's a heck of a 1-3.
5) Yes, we still need offense. Rumor has it that the Tribe is in a good position to acquire Ludwick from the Padres. While Ludwick's overall numbers aren't great, his OPS against left handed pitching ranks him at the top of the Tribe's order, so getting him to face just lefties would be great.
6) The time is now for the Indians organization. Why? Because Cleveland can really only support two sports teams, and the Browns will always be number one. Attendance for Cavs games is only going to drop, if they even play next season. Now is the time for the Indians to win back the city. Not only does this move improve their chances of winning the division, it shows the fan base that they're serious about winning right now. That's huge for the franchise.
Anyway, looking forward to see Jimenez pitch and I'm hoping we find a way to get Ludwick. Should be a fun next couple of weeks.
The big news, of course, is the "almost done" trade that sends Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Matt McBride, and Joe Gardner to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez.
My gut reaction is that I hate to see both Pomeranz and White on that list. But I can get over that, because I think that this is ultimately a good deal for the Indians. Here are my reasons:
1) Jimenez has struggled this year, but his big problems have come at home, place known as Coors Field. The Rockies' stadium is the most pitcher unfriendly park in baseball. Jimenez's ERA at Coors is closer to 6 than 5. His ERA everywhere else is 2.83. Granted, he's been in the NL, but his numbers away from Coors are better than everyone in our rotation but Masterson.
2) Alex White has never been projected at anything higher than a #3 starter, so losing him is more of a product of the fact that he's a guy we actually drafted, and we've had so few home grown pitchers make it to the major league team. Pomeranz, of course, projects as an ace. The problem, however, is that these are projections. There's no guarantee that he'll pan out, although I do think he will. Still, at the earliest we'd see him next year, more more likely 2013, which is a ways off.
3) Yes, this is a deal made because the Tribe is (now) only 1.5 games out of first place. But let's not look past the fact that this is also a trade for the future. Jimenez is locked in through 2013, with an option for 2014 (although he can void that since he was traded). This means that heading into next year (and probably the year after), the Tribe won't be wondering who's going to be in their rotation. In fact, they'll have about 9 guys between Cleveland and Columbus who could make a go of it, and suddenly two guaranteed front of the rotation guys in Jimenez and Masterson.
4) I would expect Carrasco to get sent down to make room for Jimenez. He clearly needs to work something out given his last 5 starts. I don't have a lot of faith in Huff, but he's been really good since getting called up, so no reason to send him down. But let's not forget what Carrasco did in his 5 starts before those. He obviously has the stuff to be a front end guy, and perhaps sending him back down to AAA will turn him around. But, again, if we can get him straightened out, that's a heck of a 1-3.
5) Yes, we still need offense. Rumor has it that the Tribe is in a good position to acquire Ludwick from the Padres. While Ludwick's overall numbers aren't great, his OPS against left handed pitching ranks him at the top of the Tribe's order, so getting him to face just lefties would be great.
6) The time is now for the Indians organization. Why? Because Cleveland can really only support two sports teams, and the Browns will always be number one. Attendance for Cavs games is only going to drop, if they even play next season. Now is the time for the Indians to win back the city. Not only does this move improve their chances of winning the division, it shows the fan base that they're serious about winning right now. That's huge for the franchise.
Anyway, looking forward to see Jimenez pitch and I'm hoping we find a way to get Ludwick. Should be a fun next couple of weeks.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Angels at Indians, 7/27/11
Well, that was painful.
After pulling a game out of their collective rear ends on Monday, we saw the Tribe lose a game they really should have come back to win (or at least send to extra innings) last night and then saw them get no hit today...and commit FIVE ERRORS.
But what did we really learn from all of this?
Well, we learned that if the front office makes a deal for a pitcher and doesn't make a deal for a bat, our front office is watching a different team than the rest of us.
Also, I don't care how badly he needs work or whether or not it's "baseball logic," Chris Perez should never pitch unless it's a save situation.
According to what I've read, the Indians actually offered the Mets a "good" prospect (I would guess Phelps or McCallister) and agreed to pick up ALL of Beltran's remaining salary. But Beltran was never told about the deal, one would think because his agent, Scott Boras, scoffed at the idea of sending one of his big guns to Cleveland. It appears now that he's going to San Francisco for less than what the Tribe offered, but you can't say it won't be easier for him to reach the post-season with that team.
The silver lining in this is that it's clear the front office is serious about adding offense to this team, and that they are willing to spend money to do it. The problem now, however, is that there just aren't that many quality bats out there. The best of the bunch is Hunter Pence, but the Astros seem to want the world for him, and the Tribe won't part with White, Pomeranz, Chisenhall, or Kipnis, and I don't blame them.
What's particularly frustrating about the situation for the Tribe right now is that, come the beginning of September, they could get 3 guys back from the DL, all of whom can have an immediate impact. We saw what Grady Sizemore could do when he's healthy this season, and Choo's career numbers suggest that he'll get back on track. They've decided to rehab White as a reliever for the big league team, and while there's no doubt he'll help, he could also slot in nicely if a rotation spot comes available. He certainly performed better than the back of our rotation so far this year.
But we faced the Angels' three best starters in this series and countered with a guy who has been abysmal, a guy who has been roughed up lately, and a guy who has never had success in the majors, and we were right there in every game. If we had any kind of offense at all, we probably could have taken all three.
I feel bad for Chisenhall and Kipnis, as I think they can make real contributions to this team, but they're being thrown into the fire with little room for error. Even if we make a trade for a bat, though, one of them is going to have to start hitting more, ideally so we can slot them in the number two spot and move Brantley back to lead off.
There has also been some talk about starting Lou Marson more because he's the superior defensive catcher. It's actually not a bad idea, assuming that Santana would then play first more. Santana's BA is horrible, but he gets on base far more than Matt LaPorta, whose BA isn't too great, either. In fact, LaPorta's hitting less than Marson, so the entire move would be an upgrade. At the very least, Marson should start against every lefty we face.
I have no idea if the Indians will be able to make an impact deal before the trade deadline. I really hope so, because the potential is there. And once you get into the post-season, anything can happen.
After pulling a game out of their collective rear ends on Monday, we saw the Tribe lose a game they really should have come back to win (or at least send to extra innings) last night and then saw them get no hit today...and commit FIVE ERRORS.
But what did we really learn from all of this?
Well, we learned that if the front office makes a deal for a pitcher and doesn't make a deal for a bat, our front office is watching a different team than the rest of us.
Also, I don't care how badly he needs work or whether or not it's "baseball logic," Chris Perez should never pitch unless it's a save situation.
According to what I've read, the Indians actually offered the Mets a "good" prospect (I would guess Phelps or McCallister) and agreed to pick up ALL of Beltran's remaining salary. But Beltran was never told about the deal, one would think because his agent, Scott Boras, scoffed at the idea of sending one of his big guns to Cleveland. It appears now that he's going to San Francisco for less than what the Tribe offered, but you can't say it won't be easier for him to reach the post-season with that team.
The silver lining in this is that it's clear the front office is serious about adding offense to this team, and that they are willing to spend money to do it. The problem now, however, is that there just aren't that many quality bats out there. The best of the bunch is Hunter Pence, but the Astros seem to want the world for him, and the Tribe won't part with White, Pomeranz, Chisenhall, or Kipnis, and I don't blame them.
What's particularly frustrating about the situation for the Tribe right now is that, come the beginning of September, they could get 3 guys back from the DL, all of whom can have an immediate impact. We saw what Grady Sizemore could do when he's healthy this season, and Choo's career numbers suggest that he'll get back on track. They've decided to rehab White as a reliever for the big league team, and while there's no doubt he'll help, he could also slot in nicely if a rotation spot comes available. He certainly performed better than the back of our rotation so far this year.
But we faced the Angels' three best starters in this series and countered with a guy who has been abysmal, a guy who has been roughed up lately, and a guy who has never had success in the majors, and we were right there in every game. If we had any kind of offense at all, we probably could have taken all three.
I feel bad for Chisenhall and Kipnis, as I think they can make real contributions to this team, but they're being thrown into the fire with little room for error. Even if we make a trade for a bat, though, one of them is going to have to start hitting more, ideally so we can slot them in the number two spot and move Brantley back to lead off.
There has also been some talk about starting Lou Marson more because he's the superior defensive catcher. It's actually not a bad idea, assuming that Santana would then play first more. Santana's BA is horrible, but he gets on base far more than Matt LaPorta, whose BA isn't too great, either. In fact, LaPorta's hitting less than Marson, so the entire move would be an upgrade. At the very least, Marson should start against every lefty we face.
I have no idea if the Indians will be able to make an impact deal before the trade deadline. I really hope so, because the potential is there. And once you get into the post-season, anything can happen.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
2012 Indians: All Is Not Lost
Before this season, I predicted the Tribe would go 82-80. The way they are playing right now, that seems inevitable, and perhaps even optimistic. But there is hope.
I don't mean that there's hope for this season. There really isn't much of that. There's no reason to believe that the return of Travis Hafner and the addition of Cord Phelps will turn the offense around so dramatically, or at least return it to what it was before Hafner was hurt. I'm sure it will get better, but I can't imagine it will be what it was at the start of this year.
There's also the simple fact that the Tigers are a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost. Even with a healthy line-up, the Tribe doesn't have any offense that can match Detroit's.
One thing that people seem to be ignoring during this Cleveland/Detroit series is the fact that the White Sox are now only 4.5 back. Again, they're a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost. This, then, would give the Tribe two teams with payrolls twice as large as theirs that they have to contend with to win the division. The odds of that are not great.
Because this is parity in baseball; the big market teams can compete every year, the mid and small market teams can compete every 4 to 5 years.
And that's fine. I've accepted that. It's not good, but it is what it is.
All that said, Tribe fans should be focusing on the good that has already come out of this season instead of the fact that we're no longer in first place.
Justin Masterson has shown he can be a real starter. He's gotten hosed by the offense as late, but his ERA stands at 3.16. What's particularly amazing about this is the fact that he still can't get out lefties; they hit .308 against him! It's mind boggling that he would be pitching so well with such an obvious hole in his armor. But this also means that, if he finds a way to at least lower his BAA for lefties, he could be even better than he is now.
We've all heard how great Carlos Carrasco's "stuff" is, and now we're beginning to see it. It's clear that Carrasco is beginning to mature right before our eyes, and a full season under his belt will only take him that much further. Imagine where he could be come next year.
Alex White proved that he's ready for the big leagues. His injury has hurt the team, but, if the Tribe is smart, they'll bring him back to the Show when he's off the DL. A half season in the Majors can only help him at this point. But he showed that he's not over matched by big league hitters.
Mitch Talbot is a strange case. When he's good, he's dominate, but when he's bad...it gets ugly quick. But having a guy like him in the back of the rotation would be great, assuming he can stay healthy.
It's hard to say what's wrong with Fausto Carmona. The man who fought off the midge invasion seems to crack under pressure these days. Carmona's a tricky situation for the Tribe. His trade value has to be pretty low right now. But if he starts pitching well again, would the Tribe deal him? He has team friendly options on his contract, so trading him away (assuming he improves) seems like a bad idea, particularly if the Tribe is planning on contending next season.
Josh Tomlin is currently going through is inevitable fall back to earth after a ridiculous start. Tomlin will never be anything more than a four or five starter, but at least he throws strikes. I'm not entirely sure there's a place for him next year, which is strange to say given how well he's pitched this season.
And, of course, there's Drew Pomeranz, who has dominated at the minor league level and is currently following the Alex White schedule of promotion. He's currently in advanced A at Kinston, where's he got a 2.01 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 53.2 innings. I would expect him to send the season with the AA Akron Aeros and to start next season with the AAA Columbus Clippers. And I would guess we'll see him at mid-season next year, which would be like trading for a great starter.
Adding Cord Phelps to the line-up hasn't really paid any dividends yet, but it's a good move. While Lonnie Chisenhall hasn't been lighting it up so far this season, his time will come, as will Jason Kipnis'. It will be interesting to see what kind of battle we might get between Phelps and Kipnis at second; Phelps could get a real leg up for next season if manages to start hitting in the majors.
It also bares repeating that Grady Sizemore is coming back from an injury. Yes, I know he came out of the gate like a raging bull, but it was only a matter of time before he dropped down. His timing is clearly off at the plate. This, I think it's safe to assume, will get worked out over time.
And another year is that much distance between Choo and his DUI.
I truly believe this team has a chance to win the division next year, if not go to the World Series. I said as much a few months back. And I'm fine with waiting. I'll take my fond memories from the first part of this season and store them away until next year.
And I'll spend this season watching a .500 slowly transform into a winner.
I don't mean that there's hope for this season. There really isn't much of that. There's no reason to believe that the return of Travis Hafner and the addition of Cord Phelps will turn the offense around so dramatically, or at least return it to what it was before Hafner was hurt. I'm sure it will get better, but I can't imagine it will be what it was at the start of this year.
There's also the simple fact that the Tigers are a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost. Even with a healthy line-up, the Tribe doesn't have any offense that can match Detroit's.
One thing that people seem to be ignoring during this Cleveland/Detroit series is the fact that the White Sox are now only 4.5 back. Again, they're a really good team, which only makes sense, given how much they cost. This, then, would give the Tribe two teams with payrolls twice as large as theirs that they have to contend with to win the division. The odds of that are not great.
Because this is parity in baseball; the big market teams can compete every year, the mid and small market teams can compete every 4 to 5 years.
And that's fine. I've accepted that. It's not good, but it is what it is.
All that said, Tribe fans should be focusing on the good that has already come out of this season instead of the fact that we're no longer in first place.
Justin Masterson has shown he can be a real starter. He's gotten hosed by the offense as late, but his ERA stands at 3.16. What's particularly amazing about this is the fact that he still can't get out lefties; they hit .308 against him! It's mind boggling that he would be pitching so well with such an obvious hole in his armor. But this also means that, if he finds a way to at least lower his BAA for lefties, he could be even better than he is now.
We've all heard how great Carlos Carrasco's "stuff" is, and now we're beginning to see it. It's clear that Carrasco is beginning to mature right before our eyes, and a full season under his belt will only take him that much further. Imagine where he could be come next year.
Alex White proved that he's ready for the big leagues. His injury has hurt the team, but, if the Tribe is smart, they'll bring him back to the Show when he's off the DL. A half season in the Majors can only help him at this point. But he showed that he's not over matched by big league hitters.
Mitch Talbot is a strange case. When he's good, he's dominate, but when he's bad...it gets ugly quick. But having a guy like him in the back of the rotation would be great, assuming he can stay healthy.
It's hard to say what's wrong with Fausto Carmona. The man who fought off the midge invasion seems to crack under pressure these days. Carmona's a tricky situation for the Tribe. His trade value has to be pretty low right now. But if he starts pitching well again, would the Tribe deal him? He has team friendly options on his contract, so trading him away (assuming he improves) seems like a bad idea, particularly if the Tribe is planning on contending next season.
Josh Tomlin is currently going through is inevitable fall back to earth after a ridiculous start. Tomlin will never be anything more than a four or five starter, but at least he throws strikes. I'm not entirely sure there's a place for him next year, which is strange to say given how well he's pitched this season.
And, of course, there's Drew Pomeranz, who has dominated at the minor league level and is currently following the Alex White schedule of promotion. He's currently in advanced A at Kinston, where's he got a 2.01 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 53.2 innings. I would expect him to send the season with the AA Akron Aeros and to start next season with the AAA Columbus Clippers. And I would guess we'll see him at mid-season next year, which would be like trading for a great starter.
Adding Cord Phelps to the line-up hasn't really paid any dividends yet, but it's a good move. While Lonnie Chisenhall hasn't been lighting it up so far this season, his time will come, as will Jason Kipnis'. It will be interesting to see what kind of battle we might get between Phelps and Kipnis at second; Phelps could get a real leg up for next season if manages to start hitting in the majors.
It also bares repeating that Grady Sizemore is coming back from an injury. Yes, I know he came out of the gate like a raging bull, but it was only a matter of time before he dropped down. His timing is clearly off at the plate. This, I think it's safe to assume, will get worked out over time.
And another year is that much distance between Choo and his DUI.
I truly believe this team has a chance to win the division next year, if not go to the World Series. I said as much a few months back. And I'm fine with waiting. I'll take my fond memories from the first part of this season and store them away until next year.
And I'll spend this season watching a .500 slowly transform into a winner.
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