Opening Day Is Here!

Yes, it's finally that time of year again -- time to get down to business and talk about the season to come. As always, I'll give my completely biased, most likely wrong view on how the Tribe will do this year. I should point out, though, that I'm .500 in my AL Central predictions, having picked the Tribe both times in the last two seasons.

Shockingly enough, I'm sticking with a trend and picking the Indians to win the Central again. Why? One very simple reason: depth (which, it should be noted, was the same reason I gave going into the '07 season). We have more position player and pitching depth than any other team in the division. We're going to need some people to step up, but I think that will make the difference.

Here's our opening day line-up:

1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. 1B Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. C Kelly Shoppach
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera

We know what we'll get from Grady, more or less. The case that he should move down in the order is a valid one that's more or less defeated by the fact that a) we don't have another viable lead off hitter and b) we have plenty of power further down the order.

Mark DeRosa is going to be huge for us this year, particularly since we haven't gotten consistent production from the #2 spot since the second half of '07 when AC first came up. Victor Martinez has had a good spring and will only get better going forward. Obviously, there are concerns about Pronk, but he's shown a lot of improvement in the last week and a half. I have no problems with throwing him in the fire right off the bat. He's either going to hit or he won't, so why not? Besides, it keeps the order balanced and, as many people have pointed out, he's only the clean-up hitter if everyone ahead of him gets on base in the first inning. After that it really doesn't matter, and it certainly doesn't matter nearly as much as having balance.

Peralta is clearly our ace in the hole on offense and I have a feeling that more and more teams are going to realize that this year. The upside there is that they'll have to pitch to Choo, who has clearly had problems because of the WBC, but we've seen glimmers of what he's capable of. We also know what he can do when he gets consistent time in, so I have confidence in him (and Trevor Crowe, for that matter, if it comes to that).

The Kelly Shoppach/Ryan Garko #7 spot will be interesting to watch, as they're very similar types of hitters. As long as they can both remember that they don't have to hit for the fences every time out (and having six guys ahead of them who can all hit it out helps), they should really produce. Ben Francisco had a nice spring and it would appear that he's developing into the consistent player we all wondered if he could be. Asdrubal Cabrera has also had a nice spring, particularly compared to last year, and I think he lives and dies by his confidence level.

As for our bench, we have:

Garko/Shoppach (see above)
Josh Barfield
Trevor Crowe
Jamey Carroll

As much as I'd rather Crowe get every day ABs in Columbus, you do have to like the speed off the bench we have now. I know the Tribe can't really afford to eat $4 million, but it's nice seeing Crowe get a shot in the majors. And if Jamey Carroll does what he did last year, we should have one of the best benches in baseball.

Let's also not look over the guys we have waiting in the wings, like Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, the aforementiond Trevor Crowe (when Dellucci comes off the DL), Michael Aubrey (who had a great spring), and even Wes Hodges, who made a lot of people take notice in spring training.

As we move to the pitching, let's start with the good and move to the more questionable. Here's our bullpen:

Masa Kobayashi
Rafael Betancourt
Zach Jackson
Joe Smith
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis
Kerry Wood

You may know those last four guys on the list as part of the Guys With Really Low Spring ERAs club. All four dominated during the spring, with Wood only giving up runs in his last appearance. As for our middle relief, there are some serious question marks. Jackson won his job because he's a converted starter and can go multiple innings if needed, but he wasn't exactly impressive in spring training. He's also a lefty. But, his fatal flaw in the past has been that one big inning, so perhaps a middle relief role will get him in and out before that inning pops up.

Rafael Betancourt has been about as inconsistent as he was last year, periodically flashing glimpses of the '07 Betancourt, then reverting to the '08 version. I have no idea what we'll get out of him. Masa Kobayashi has been more or less awful all spring, and most Tribe fans are taking guesses at when he'll be sent down, most likely to be replaced by Vinnie Chulk, who had a great spring.

Regardless, the back end of our bullpen looks really, really impressive.

Now for the biggest question mark we have, our starting rotation:

Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes

I have no idea what to expect from Lee, given what he did last year as compared to what he did the year before and what he did in spring training. My best guess would be something between '05 (18-5, 3.79 ERA) and '06 (14-11, 4.40 ERA). I would guess 17 wins and an ERA around 3.50, which I'd be perfectly happy with, even it is a step down from last season.

Fausto Carmona, on the other hand, could be in a position to dominate. If the Tribe has a Cy Young candidate in the rotation this year, I think it's Fausto. He had a great spring and really seems to be returning to his '07 form. I think, by the end of the year, he'll be our ace.

Carl Pavano has gotten better in each of his spring starts. I don't expect him to go much past five innings most games, but I think he'll keep us in the game. I'm thinking something similar to the numbers I gave for Lee above, perhaps fewer wins.

Scott Lewis is a real question mark. He's struggle a great deal since winning a spot on the line-up and he's been giving up a lot of long balls. I'd hazard a guess, but I really have no idea. I'm not too concerned about it, though, as we have a number of guys who could step in for him.

Anthony Reyes had all of one bad outing this spring. I would expect him to pick up where he left off last season. I think he could actually be better than Pavano and get serious consideration as comeback player of the year, right behind Fausto. I do think Wedge will limit his innings, though.

And let's not forget that we should get Jake Westbrook back after the break (earlier, in fact, but I'd be shocked if they didn't hold him out for a while just to be safe). Jake could be the mid-season trade this team needs, really, which is huge. Let's not forget how he was throwing the ball last year before got hurt. He was really dominating, but getting no run support. If he can return to form, slotting him in as the #3 guy would be gold.

Of course we can also look at David Huff, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers, three guys who could show up at any point in the season. While none of them had the best springs, I think starting the season in Columbus will give them all the time they need to show they can take the next step.

So there you go -- the 2009 Clevelan Indians. I'm picking them to win the Central. Beyond that, I'm not saying, as just thinking about it makes me anxious.

As for the rest of baseball, here are my picks:

AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Mets