What a difference a series makes.
At a certain point you do have to wonder, if the Indians were so bad, why have all of our players been traded to teams in the middle of playoff races? Garko and Betancourt are going to battle each other for the NL Wildcard, DeRosa is fighting for first in the NL Central, and now Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco are going to be extending the Phillies lead in the NL East (and I've just now noticed that we have only dealt guys to the NL, which is interesting).
I give credit to Mark Shapiro on at least one point, though: he's being honest. While I don't know that I completely agree that the Tribe couldn't compete next year (even with a command from on high to cut payroll), he would certainly know better than I. At least he's not pretending and trying to sugar coat this. He doesn't think we have the pieces to compete next year and, in the interests of full disclosure, he told us that we don't even have the money to get those pieces. So it's time to rebuild (and that's what it is -- screw this "reload" B.S.).
Could we have gotten more for Lee and Francisco? It sure seems that way. It is odd that, for a team so desperate for pitching, half of the guys we got were position players? Definitely. Is it even stranger that one of them is a catcher, when we currently have three catchers on the major league roster, two catchers on the AAA roster (one of whom, Toregas, has better numbers than the new guy), and one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball on the AA roster? Hell, yes. But, for as much as Shapiro wants to keep things a secret, it's clear that those players are around for other reasons -- either as replacements for guys who are going to get dealt or as pieces to sweeten another deal.
All eyes are on Victor Martinez. And everyone should be looking at Victor Martinez, but let's not forget about Jhonny Peralta, Jamie Carroll, and Carl Pavano. If the Tribe is serious about rebuilding for 2011, all four of those guys should be dealt in the next two days. There's absolutely no reason NOT to.
I expect Martinez to go to the Red Sox in some kind of deal that gets us Justin Masterson. That's my best guess, though. I have no real inside knowledge on this.
So where does that leave us, going forward? Well, assuming we deal the guys I listed above, and working under the completely darkness of not knowing who we might get for any of them (I'm willing to guess we'd make a spot in the bullpen for Masterson, if need be), I'm suggesting this, beginning this weekend (after the trade deadline):
Infield:
Marte (3rd)
Cabrera (SS)
Valbuena (2nd)
LaPorta (1st)
Gimenez (C)
Outfield:
Choo (RF)
Sizemore (CF)
Brantley/Crowe (LF/4th OF)
Bench:
Shoppach (because I don't think they'll deal both of our experienced catchers)
Hafner (DH)
Barfield or Donald (utiltiy INF)
Brown (1st/OF/DH)
Rotation:
Carmona
Laffey
Huff
Sowers
Carrosco (from the Lee deal)
Bullpen:
Wood
Perez
Perez
Todd
Lewis
Sipp
Smith
There's no reason to hang on to our mis-matched bullpen. Veras, Gosling, Abreau -- these guys are not the future of our bullpen. Sure, Sipp has had problems and it's hard to imagine giving R. Perez and J. Lewis another shot, but by the hell not? If they need to work themselves out (and they've been perfect in AAA), let them do it at the top level.
I'll be honest: I'm fine with this. Oh, I'm not saying I won't get really misty-eyed if/when Victor is traded, but I would much rather we be upfront about it than pretend otherwise. The Tribe is a mid-market team in a city with more teams than it can support. I understand that this is how it works.
It's just really sad that this generation of Indians -- Sabathia, Lee, Martinez, Peralta, etc. -- are headed out, having come SO close to getting us that championship we've been waiting for all these years. It was a heck of a ride.
There will be a few holdovers, though, thankfully. Sizemore is signed through 2011 with an option for 2012, which HAS to be picked up. Hafner is signed through 2012 with an option for 2013 (much less likely to be picked up as I don't know that he'll be needed). Cabrera is arbitration eligible starting in 2011, but I would expect all these moves to be a precursor to signing him to a long term deal.
And let's look at it this way, too: we have a lot of pitching options in the pipe between now and the start of the 2011 season. There's Carmona, there's Laffey, there's Huff and Sowers. Then we've got Scott Lewis and the newly aquired Carrasco. Beyond that, we have our big star, Hector Rondon, who's pitching next to Chuck Lofgren in Columbus. Two years is enough time for AA guys to make a run, too -- guys like Edell and Graham, who both have ERAs under 3 in Akron. That's ten guys I just rattled off, and I'm not even counting potential bullpen guys or anyone we acquire between now and then.
Do I wish we could have made a go of it last year? Of course -- I wish we could have made a go of it this year. I want a championship to come to Cleveland and I want the Indians to be the first team to do it (I'm looking at you, Cavs). But I'm fine with rebuilding if we're actually going to commit to it.
Sadly, that means trading a few players that I've really grown to like over the years. But that's the nature of the game, isn't it?
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Monday, July 20, 2009
Cleveland Matters
Time flies when your favorite team is awful, doesn't it?
I watched "The Brooklyn Dodgers: The Ghosts of Flatbush" on HBO again today. It's one of those shows that's impossible to turn off when you stumble across it, the story is just that interesting (I should point out that it was followed by "Ted Williams," a documentary about, well, Ted Williams, during which his nephew, named Ted Williams -- really -- claims that, because of the debacle that was Williams' will, his famous uncle will now be most commonly known as "the frozen guy," not, say, "the greatest hitter baseball has ever known." The lesson here is that Ted Williams' nephew, Ted Williams, is an idiot.). The Dodgers clinched the pennant in 1955 rather handily, and waited to see who they would play in the World Series. One of the Dodgers' mentioned that they didn't really care whether they would play the Yankees or Cleveland.
This was, of course, one year after the Indians would get swept in the World Series by the Giants.
Anyway, I think, given the decades of irrelevance that the Tribe has experienced in its history, it's easy to forget why the Indians matter. They don't have the mystique that the Yankees or the Red Sox have, yet in the early days of baseball they were right there, just as important the the league as anything coming out of New York or Boston or even Detroit.
I once read an article in which famed Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully suggested that perhaps the best thing that could happen to baseball would be to cut the league back down to eight teams in each league. It made me wonder, in today's bi-coastal, media controlled world, which teams would make the cut. And I began to worry that my beloved Tribe wouldn't be one of them.
Cleveland's biggest problem these days -- aside from the staggering job loss and crippling depression -- is that it is a one sport town; the people of Northeast Ohio can really only afford to support one team at a time. Who are you going to go see, Ryan Garko (who I happen to like) and Kelly Shoppach (who I happen to not like), or LeBron James (who I like despite his front runner tendencies) and Shaq (who I like despite having played with Kobe)? Honestly, the NFL might want to reconsider extending the season any further, because at a certain point Cleveland fans are going to have to regularly decide between those Browns' tickets and those Cavs tickets', and we all know how that decision would go these days.
It is no coincidence that the Indians dominated after the Browns left and the Cavs got bad again.
So, what, then? Do we wait for LeBron to move to New York before the Tribe can go the World Series and lose again? No, we just hold out hope that we can catch lightning in a bottle again, like we did in '07, and realize that the karma of a city will only allow those years to happen as an exception, not as a rule.
Speaking of karma, does that mean we should trade Cliff Lee? Hey, at least Sabathia had the manners to win the Cy Young while getting our team into the post-season (granted, he actually had help). What could it possibly take to get Lee from the Tribe, given that we have a really cheap option on him next year? And, if we DO trade him, aren't we basically admitting that we have no shot next year, either?
Well, yes to that last one, which might not be too far from the truth. Keeping Cliff Lee means making a number of assumptions, specifically about our future pitching staff. It assumes that Jake Westbrook will be able to return to form after half a season of play this year (he's due back at the beginning of August). It assumes that Fausto Carmona, who was sent all the way to the Rookie League just a month ago, has figured it out, and can be the Cy Young contender he was in '07. It assumes that Hector Rondon's first two starts since getting the call to AAA Columbus are indications of what he'll do the rest of the season, and what he can do next year. It assumes that Aaron Laffey and Scott Lewis, if healthy, can live up to their potential. And it assumes that we can get something out of our AAAA guys, David Huff and Jeremy Sowers, who always seem to be one inning away from being solid pitchers.
It also assumes that any of those guys could move to the bullpen if they don't land a starting job and, in doing so, save said bullpen from itself.
And, yes, I would go so far as to say it assumes we have a new manager.
That's an awful lot of assumptions to make. That's an awful lot of "what if's."
Sadly, at this point, that's all we have.
I watched "The Brooklyn Dodgers: The Ghosts of Flatbush" on HBO again today. It's one of those shows that's impossible to turn off when you stumble across it, the story is just that interesting (I should point out that it was followed by "Ted Williams," a documentary about, well, Ted Williams, during which his nephew, named Ted Williams -- really -- claims that, because of the debacle that was Williams' will, his famous uncle will now be most commonly known as "the frozen guy," not, say, "the greatest hitter baseball has ever known." The lesson here is that Ted Williams' nephew, Ted Williams, is an idiot.). The Dodgers clinched the pennant in 1955 rather handily, and waited to see who they would play in the World Series. One of the Dodgers' mentioned that they didn't really care whether they would play the Yankees or Cleveland.
This was, of course, one year after the Indians would get swept in the World Series by the Giants.
Anyway, I think, given the decades of irrelevance that the Tribe has experienced in its history, it's easy to forget why the Indians matter. They don't have the mystique that the Yankees or the Red Sox have, yet in the early days of baseball they were right there, just as important the the league as anything coming out of New York or Boston or even Detroit.
I once read an article in which famed Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully suggested that perhaps the best thing that could happen to baseball would be to cut the league back down to eight teams in each league. It made me wonder, in today's bi-coastal, media controlled world, which teams would make the cut. And I began to worry that my beloved Tribe wouldn't be one of them.
Cleveland's biggest problem these days -- aside from the staggering job loss and crippling depression -- is that it is a one sport town; the people of Northeast Ohio can really only afford to support one team at a time. Who are you going to go see, Ryan Garko (who I happen to like) and Kelly Shoppach (who I happen to not like), or LeBron James (who I like despite his front runner tendencies) and Shaq (who I like despite having played with Kobe)? Honestly, the NFL might want to reconsider extending the season any further, because at a certain point Cleveland fans are going to have to regularly decide between those Browns' tickets and those Cavs tickets', and we all know how that decision would go these days.
It is no coincidence that the Indians dominated after the Browns left and the Cavs got bad again.
So, what, then? Do we wait for LeBron to move to New York before the Tribe can go the World Series and lose again? No, we just hold out hope that we can catch lightning in a bottle again, like we did in '07, and realize that the karma of a city will only allow those years to happen as an exception, not as a rule.
Speaking of karma, does that mean we should trade Cliff Lee? Hey, at least Sabathia had the manners to win the Cy Young while getting our team into the post-season (granted, he actually had help). What could it possibly take to get Lee from the Tribe, given that we have a really cheap option on him next year? And, if we DO trade him, aren't we basically admitting that we have no shot next year, either?
Well, yes to that last one, which might not be too far from the truth. Keeping Cliff Lee means making a number of assumptions, specifically about our future pitching staff. It assumes that Jake Westbrook will be able to return to form after half a season of play this year (he's due back at the beginning of August). It assumes that Fausto Carmona, who was sent all the way to the Rookie League just a month ago, has figured it out, and can be the Cy Young contender he was in '07. It assumes that Hector Rondon's first two starts since getting the call to AAA Columbus are indications of what he'll do the rest of the season, and what he can do next year. It assumes that Aaron Laffey and Scott Lewis, if healthy, can live up to their potential. And it assumes that we can get something out of our AAAA guys, David Huff and Jeremy Sowers, who always seem to be one inning away from being solid pitchers.
It also assumes that any of those guys could move to the bullpen if they don't land a starting job and, in doing so, save said bullpen from itself.
And, yes, I would go so far as to say it assumes we have a new manager.
That's an awful lot of assumptions to make. That's an awful lot of "what if's."
Sadly, at this point, that's all we have.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Is There Hope?
So, here, we are, the end of May. The only thing keeping most people from paying attention to the Indians has gone away, the same way that most good things go away for Cleveland fans: painfully. There's no more shiny thing to distract us. In a few days, most of us will get over the latest in a long line of Cleveland sports miseries and focus will be placed squarely on our baseball team.
It's the end of May, the Tribe is 22-30, 8 games under .500 and 7.5 games out of first place. Oh, and that's not even the worst of it.
No, the worst of it is this:
Victor Martinez
Grady Sizemore
Travis Hafner
Joe Smith
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Lewis
Aaron Laffey
Jake Westbrook
Anthony Reyes
That is the list of players who are currently injured (although Martinez is day to day and not on the DL). The bottom third of our order today is hitting .211 or less. The (arguably) three remaining faces of our franchise since C.C. left -- Victor, Grady, and Pronk -- were no where to be seen. And there are now SIX pitchers on that list.
This all begs the question: how the heck do we win?
The truly frustrating team about this team is that, as bad as they've been, they're not yet completely out of it. All the teams in the division have flaws and one good winning streak against division rivals could put the Tribe on top. But you really have to wonder how that's possible when we're missing our RBI leader, our home run leaders, and we only have two dependable starters? How do we win more than 40% of our games with Fausto Carmona's continued problems and the back of our rotation made up of Jeremy Sowers and David Huff?
I don't know that we can. But here are some rather hopeful ideas.
First, we have to pray that Victor Martinez is only out for a few days. We're done without him. There's no way around that.
Second, we need to make a deal for a starter. We don't need an ace (we have one) or even a #2 (as Pavano has stepped it up). We need a back of the rotation guy who can give us a fight chance every five days and who can keep us competitive through the month of June. A guy like Brad Penny is a good option, but there's probably going to be a bidding war for him (I would guess, at this point, that it would take at least Kelly Shoppach to get him -- which I'm fine with).
Grady going on the DL isn't as bad as it seems. He's been ineffective so far this year and hasn't played outfield for a few weeks now. With Pronk need yet MORE rehab, this means we finally have a shot of getting Ryan Garko in the line-up. So we're going to need him to produce.
It's time to call up Jordan Brown. Wedge seems understandably hesitant to go with a young outfield, so it seems like DeRosa will get more time there. Brown has also gotten some time in the outfield recently, or he can play first when Garko is DHing, or even DH if need be. But, as of right now, if we have DeRosa in the outfield and Garko at first, we have no real hitter available to DH, at least no one with power. Brown's got a higher SLG in Columbus than LaPorta.
I stand by my "second starter" theory and, while Vinnie Chulk has been performing well in Columbus and is a righty, Zach Jackson can give us more innings. He just can't ever start for us again. Bring him in from the 'pen for three innings every three days or so, but no more.
Here's something to think about:
Cliff Lee
Carl Pavano
Jake Westbrook
Aaron Laffey
Scott Lewis
That's assuming Fausto doesn't get his act together (and it doesn't look like he will). But THAT is a rotation that can win the Central. But it's going to be another month before that's even a possibility.
Do we have anything in our favor that could get us to that point, to the All Star break? Well, no, not really. We're not facing any of the other bad teams in the AL until we get Oakland 4th of July weekend. In the meantime, we face six series against Central teams and then interleague play against arguably the best division in baseball right now.
That does mean, however, that if we manage to stay close by the All Star break, we have a much easier schedule in the second half, including a second series against Oakland and two each against Seattle and Baltimore, not to mention 9 games against Detroit, who seem to be the the best team in the division right now (and 12 against Minnesota, who could be right there as well).
So there IS hope.
How long it sticks around, though, should be evident in the next 30 days.
It's the end of May, the Tribe is 22-30, 8 games under .500 and 7.5 games out of first place. Oh, and that's not even the worst of it.
No, the worst of it is this:
Victor Martinez
Grady Sizemore
Travis Hafner
Joe Smith
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Lewis
Aaron Laffey
Jake Westbrook
Anthony Reyes
That is the list of players who are currently injured (although Martinez is day to day and not on the DL). The bottom third of our order today is hitting .211 or less. The (arguably) three remaining faces of our franchise since C.C. left -- Victor, Grady, and Pronk -- were no where to be seen. And there are now SIX pitchers on that list.
This all begs the question: how the heck do we win?
The truly frustrating team about this team is that, as bad as they've been, they're not yet completely out of it. All the teams in the division have flaws and one good winning streak against division rivals could put the Tribe on top. But you really have to wonder how that's possible when we're missing our RBI leader, our home run leaders, and we only have two dependable starters? How do we win more than 40% of our games with Fausto Carmona's continued problems and the back of our rotation made up of Jeremy Sowers and David Huff?
I don't know that we can. But here are some rather hopeful ideas.
First, we have to pray that Victor Martinez is only out for a few days. We're done without him. There's no way around that.
Second, we need to make a deal for a starter. We don't need an ace (we have one) or even a #2 (as Pavano has stepped it up). We need a back of the rotation guy who can give us a fight chance every five days and who can keep us competitive through the month of June. A guy like Brad Penny is a good option, but there's probably going to be a bidding war for him (I would guess, at this point, that it would take at least Kelly Shoppach to get him -- which I'm fine with).
Grady going on the DL isn't as bad as it seems. He's been ineffective so far this year and hasn't played outfield for a few weeks now. With Pronk need yet MORE rehab, this means we finally have a shot of getting Ryan Garko in the line-up. So we're going to need him to produce.
It's time to call up Jordan Brown. Wedge seems understandably hesitant to go with a young outfield, so it seems like DeRosa will get more time there. Brown has also gotten some time in the outfield recently, or he can play first when Garko is DHing, or even DH if need be. But, as of right now, if we have DeRosa in the outfield and Garko at first, we have no real hitter available to DH, at least no one with power. Brown's got a higher SLG in Columbus than LaPorta.
I stand by my "second starter" theory and, while Vinnie Chulk has been performing well in Columbus and is a righty, Zach Jackson can give us more innings. He just can't ever start for us again. Bring him in from the 'pen for three innings every three days or so, but no more.
Here's something to think about:
Cliff Lee
Carl Pavano
Jake Westbrook
Aaron Laffey
Scott Lewis
That's assuming Fausto doesn't get his act together (and it doesn't look like he will). But THAT is a rotation that can win the Central. But it's going to be another month before that's even a possibility.
Do we have anything in our favor that could get us to that point, to the All Star break? Well, no, not really. We're not facing any of the other bad teams in the AL until we get Oakland 4th of July weekend. In the meantime, we face six series against Central teams and then interleague play against arguably the best division in baseball right now.
That does mean, however, that if we manage to stay close by the All Star break, we have a much easier schedule in the second half, including a second series against Oakland and two each against Seattle and Baltimore, not to mention 9 games against Detroit, who seem to be the the best team in the division right now (and 12 against Minnesota, who could be right there as well).
So there IS hope.
How long it sticks around, though, should be evident in the next 30 days.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Once More, Into the Breach
The Indians suck.
Let's not humor ourselves into thinking otherwise.
In fact, I'm going to try not to go completely insane while writing this. I won't get all angry about the fact that the last four guys in our line-up today are hitting a combines .186 and that both Francisco and Garko have higher averages than all of them (Garko even has a higher average against righties). I'll hold back from punching the wall when I mention that Mark DeRosa's a life long second baseman who has played over 2100 innings at that position, yet hasn't played more than 10 games worth at first. I'll refrain from screaming at our new platoon at second base which only serves to a) break up momentum and b) take ABs at one of the best bats on our team (Ryan Garko). I'll even bite my tongue on the fact that our lead off man has the second lowest OBP of all the lead off men in the AL (third worst in baseball).
No, perhaps it might be better to do what I did last time, and throw out some crazy ideas, as the last one I threw out (Laffey to the 'pen) actually happened, and has ultimately helped more than it hurt (just barely).
We should continue to carry 8 relievers, because there's no reason not to. Our much hyped "versatility" means we don't need to carry as many position players. So 8 relievers and 5 starters will leave us with 12 spots, which should be, as of this very moment:
Choo
Sizemore
LaPorta
Francisco
Peralta
Cabrera
DeRosa
Garko
Martinez
Shoppach
Carroll
Dellucci*
*Based only upon the assumption that the Tribe will never part with him.
Valbuena needs to go back to Columbus to play every day.
That line-up not only gives us some flexibility, it also gives us stability. Also, Kelly Shoppach needs to return to his '07 position: he catches for one guy, and this time around it's Cliff Lee (that is, of course, unless the Tribe goes out and signs free agent Paul Byrd, which I'm thinking they should probably look into right now).
Then there's our rotation. Obviously, Cliff Lee is back in form. We've got to keep Fausto, just for the occasionally glimpses of greatness we get. Pavano only last 5 innings today, but he did manage to keep us in the game. Beyond that? Well, I don't know. That has a lot to do with our bullpen.
After Anthony Reyes' last outing, I became convinced it was time to move him to long relief. He didn't give up a single hit in his first three innings of work yesterday. But after one time through the order, they figured him out and he got hit hard. This seems to be a trend for Reyes -- just like Jeremy Sowers. As we don't have a right hander to compliment Laffey, maybe it's time to make that person Reyes.
Sure, this would leave us with yet ANOTHER hole in our rotation, but at this point it wouldn't be much of a hole.
In fact, I would suggest bringing Tomo Ohka from Columbus. His numbers have actually been better than David Huff, the guy we're calling up for tomorrow's start.
And then? Then I would start something called "2nd Starter."
We've already seen this happen with Laffey. In his very first relief appearance, he came in after Pavano went six innings to get a three inning save. And I think this will have to continue.
It's time to start pairing people up.
Look at it this way: Cliff Lee can pitch deep, so he won't need this kind of help. That leaves us with four starters who will all need "2nd Starters." We carry 8 relievers, that leaves us with four guys to choose from each night if our 1st and 2nd starters only get us through seven.
You heard me.
My crazy theory is this:
Rotation
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
David Huff
Tomo Ohka (until Scott Lewis returns)
2nd Starters
Aaron Laffey
Anthony Reyes
Zach Jackson
Jeremy Sowers
Relievers
Tony Sipp
Rafael Betancourt
Luis Vizcaino/Matt Herges
Closer
Kerry Wood
In theory, when Scott Lewis returns we can cut down on a second starter, assuming Lewis can pick up where he left off when he was healthy last year. For that matter, we have no idea that Huff won't be able to go deep into games, but, at this point, why take a chance? Over time, we'll need our 2nd Starters less and less. And, over time, we'll get back a healthy Joe Smith, an improved Rafeal Perez and Jensen Lewis from AAA, and a healthy Jake Westbrook.
Is my idea insane? Sure, but if it can keep us within striking distance until the All-Star break, why not give it a shot?
Let's not humor ourselves into thinking otherwise.
In fact, I'm going to try not to go completely insane while writing this. I won't get all angry about the fact that the last four guys in our line-up today are hitting a combines .186 and that both Francisco and Garko have higher averages than all of them (Garko even has a higher average against righties). I'll hold back from punching the wall when I mention that Mark DeRosa's a life long second baseman who has played over 2100 innings at that position, yet hasn't played more than 10 games worth at first. I'll refrain from screaming at our new platoon at second base which only serves to a) break up momentum and b) take ABs at one of the best bats on our team (Ryan Garko). I'll even bite my tongue on the fact that our lead off man has the second lowest OBP of all the lead off men in the AL (third worst in baseball).
No, perhaps it might be better to do what I did last time, and throw out some crazy ideas, as the last one I threw out (Laffey to the 'pen) actually happened, and has ultimately helped more than it hurt (just barely).
We should continue to carry 8 relievers, because there's no reason not to. Our much hyped "versatility" means we don't need to carry as many position players. So 8 relievers and 5 starters will leave us with 12 spots, which should be, as of this very moment:
Choo
Sizemore
LaPorta
Francisco
Peralta
Cabrera
DeRosa
Garko
Martinez
Shoppach
Carroll
Dellucci*
*Based only upon the assumption that the Tribe will never part with him.
Valbuena needs to go back to Columbus to play every day.
That line-up not only gives us some flexibility, it also gives us stability. Also, Kelly Shoppach needs to return to his '07 position: he catches for one guy, and this time around it's Cliff Lee (that is, of course, unless the Tribe goes out and signs free agent Paul Byrd, which I'm thinking they should probably look into right now).
Then there's our rotation. Obviously, Cliff Lee is back in form. We've got to keep Fausto, just for the occasionally glimpses of greatness we get. Pavano only last 5 innings today, but he did manage to keep us in the game. Beyond that? Well, I don't know. That has a lot to do with our bullpen.
After Anthony Reyes' last outing, I became convinced it was time to move him to long relief. He didn't give up a single hit in his first three innings of work yesterday. But after one time through the order, they figured him out and he got hit hard. This seems to be a trend for Reyes -- just like Jeremy Sowers. As we don't have a right hander to compliment Laffey, maybe it's time to make that person Reyes.
Sure, this would leave us with yet ANOTHER hole in our rotation, but at this point it wouldn't be much of a hole.
In fact, I would suggest bringing Tomo Ohka from Columbus. His numbers have actually been better than David Huff, the guy we're calling up for tomorrow's start.
And then? Then I would start something called "2nd Starter."
We've already seen this happen with Laffey. In his very first relief appearance, he came in after Pavano went six innings to get a three inning save. And I think this will have to continue.
It's time to start pairing people up.
Look at it this way: Cliff Lee can pitch deep, so he won't need this kind of help. That leaves us with four starters who will all need "2nd Starters." We carry 8 relievers, that leaves us with four guys to choose from each night if our 1st and 2nd starters only get us through seven.
You heard me.
My crazy theory is this:
Rotation
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
David Huff
Tomo Ohka (until Scott Lewis returns)
2nd Starters
Aaron Laffey
Anthony Reyes
Zach Jackson
Jeremy Sowers
Relievers
Tony Sipp
Rafael Betancourt
Luis Vizcaino/Matt Herges
Closer
Kerry Wood
In theory, when Scott Lewis returns we can cut down on a second starter, assuming Lewis can pick up where he left off when he was healthy last year. For that matter, we have no idea that Huff won't be able to go deep into games, but, at this point, why take a chance? Over time, we'll need our 2nd Starters less and less. And, over time, we'll get back a healthy Joe Smith, an improved Rafeal Perez and Jensen Lewis from AAA, and a healthy Jake Westbrook.
Is my idea insane? Sure, but if it can keep us within striking distance until the All-Star break, why not give it a shot?
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Drastic Times
Well, here we are, 25 games into the season, 5 games out of first place at 9-16. I would call this season a bust if it weren't for the fact that our division is so tightly packed. But time is running out and I think it's time for some drastic moves.
So here, without further ado, are Kyle's Drastic Move Suggestions:
1) Call up David Huff for the bullpen. Huff is currently 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA as a starter in Columbus. I know that the Tribe would like to keep him as a starter. But he's also got 23 K's in 28 innings and a heck of an arm. I say we give him a shot in the 'pen and return him to the rotation next year -- or hopefully later this year, as Lewis and Perez get themselves figured out. He's a lefty, though, so we'd still be missing a right handed set up man.
2) Play Ryan Garko every day. With the DH open, we can still get Victor into the line-up when Shoppach is catching. Garko has the second highest AVG on the team with runners in scoring position. Considering how often Wedge laments our poor at bats in those situations, why ISN'T Garko in the line-up every day? He's also hitting .293 with limited ABs.
3) While the sample size for both of them is pretty small, Asdrubal Cabrera's on base percentage is .435, second only to Victor Martinez. Grady Sizemore's is 100 points lower. On the flipside, though, Grady is currently tied for 1st in RBI. AC currently has 4 stolen bases to Grady's 5. I think you can see where I'm going with this. While I'd love to wait and make sure that Cabrera's numbers are for real, it's time to get drastic. Let's move him to the lead off spot and move Grady down in the order.
4) Cabrera, Garko, DeRosa, and Martinez need to play every day. They're the only ones hitting over .260 with RISP. As this has been one of our biggest problems, there's no reason any of them should ever sit.
5) Get LaPorta and Valbuena in two out of every three games. Why not?
BONUS SUPER CRAZY, IRRATIONALLY DRASTIC IDEA
6) Move Aaron Laffey to the bullpen and call up Jeremy Sowers, who's been very good in Columbus. Sure, that sounds insane, considering how much our rotation improved when Laffey came up, but bare with me. Laffey does something that no one in our bullpen appears able to do: get double play balls. Imagine being able to bring someone in to get a double play ball and having him actually do it. That would be invaluable. Granted, this move would also be dependent upon Pavano continuing to pitch well and actually turning into a #3 guy, not to mention the good Jeremy Sowers sticking around for a while (at least until Scott Lewis is healthy).
Like I said, drastic times call for drastic measures and I, for one, would have no problems with any of these moves. At this point, I'd take any changes they'd be willing to make.
So here, without further ado, are Kyle's Drastic Move Suggestions:
1) Call up David Huff for the bullpen. Huff is currently 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA as a starter in Columbus. I know that the Tribe would like to keep him as a starter. But he's also got 23 K's in 28 innings and a heck of an arm. I say we give him a shot in the 'pen and return him to the rotation next year -- or hopefully later this year, as Lewis and Perez get themselves figured out. He's a lefty, though, so we'd still be missing a right handed set up man.
2) Play Ryan Garko every day. With the DH open, we can still get Victor into the line-up when Shoppach is catching. Garko has the second highest AVG on the team with runners in scoring position. Considering how often Wedge laments our poor at bats in those situations, why ISN'T Garko in the line-up every day? He's also hitting .293 with limited ABs.
3) While the sample size for both of them is pretty small, Asdrubal Cabrera's on base percentage is .435, second only to Victor Martinez. Grady Sizemore's is 100 points lower. On the flipside, though, Grady is currently tied for 1st in RBI. AC currently has 4 stolen bases to Grady's 5. I think you can see where I'm going with this. While I'd love to wait and make sure that Cabrera's numbers are for real, it's time to get drastic. Let's move him to the lead off spot and move Grady down in the order.
4) Cabrera, Garko, DeRosa, and Martinez need to play every day. They're the only ones hitting over .260 with RISP. As this has been one of our biggest problems, there's no reason any of them should ever sit.
5) Get LaPorta and Valbuena in two out of every three games. Why not?
BONUS SUPER CRAZY, IRRATIONALLY DRASTIC IDEA
6) Move Aaron Laffey to the bullpen and call up Jeremy Sowers, who's been very good in Columbus. Sure, that sounds insane, considering how much our rotation improved when Laffey came up, but bare with me. Laffey does something that no one in our bullpen appears able to do: get double play balls. Imagine being able to bring someone in to get a double play ball and having him actually do it. That would be invaluable. Granted, this move would also be dependent upon Pavano continuing to pitch well and actually turning into a #3 guy, not to mention the good Jeremy Sowers sticking around for a while (at least until Scott Lewis is healthy).
Like I said, drastic times call for drastic measures and I, for one, would have no problems with any of these moves. At this point, I'd take any changes they'd be willing to make.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Why I'm Not Panicking Yet
Yes, perhaps the Tribe should consider bringing in the priest from "The Natural." Although maybe it's not losing that's he disease, so much as bad pitching.
So we're 0-4 and we've given up more than forty runs in just four games. Our best starter has an ERA of 8.31 and didn't even go five innings. Shouldn't I be really concerned?
Well, I am, mostly because I enjoy watching baseball and I'd actually like to watch games that matter come last summer/early fall. But I'm not going over board just yet, and here's why:
Our pitching can't really be this bad. No, really. I mean, Rafael Perez gave up five runs tonight -- Rafael Perez, people! The man never gives up runs! It's unnatural for him, and it's been unnatural for over two years now. This isn't like Cliff Lee or Fausto Carmona -- good one year, bad the next and vice versa -- this is a guy who was pretty much the only reliever we could count on for much of last year (we even had to send Jensen Lewis down to AAA at one point, remember). So there's obviously something going on here.
As I said, bad pitching seems to be contagious.
The other thing that keeps me from freaking out entirely is our division. The Central doesn't really have any one team that stands out from the rest. Ideally, this means we'll have something of a log jam. If the Tribe can just stay with the pack to mid-season, we're still in it. For one, there's the possibility of a deal, which is something that really could happen given how much young talent we have and how many teams will be looking to deal away experienced pitching when they realize they have no chance at making the post-season (just let me have my little Jake Peavy dream, thank you). Almost as good as a trade is the fact that we'll get Jake Westbrook back. While not flashy, Westbrook has generally defined "solid," which is exactly what the Tribe needs. We need someone reliable, because what we have no is a bunch of guys who are erratic. Westbrook's made great progress in his rehab, so hopefully the Tribe can hold him back longer than they really need to just to make sure he's up to speed.
In the meantime, what are the chances that all four of our youngsters (Lewis, Huff, Laffey, and Sowers) bomb? At least one of them is going to step up. Even Cleveland luck isn't that bad.
Our bullpen IS good. The numbers don't lie. We'll get there.
And let's not forget about the good we've seen tonight -- namely, Travis Hafner. He's now hitting .313 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI. Hey, he's on a pace to hit 81 home runs! And drive in 162! Our offense should be fine, assuming we can get the on-base guys going (DeRosa, Cabrera, and the rather painful Francisco).
So I'm not panicking just yet.
But I will say this: tomorrow is a big game for Cliff Lee. Not only does he need to prove that his first start was a fluke, he needs to be a stopper. The Tribe needs a starter to end this downward spiral and if Cliff wants to be our ace, he needs to step up and do it. It actually might be more important for Cliff to pitch well tomorrow than it is for us to win.
Couple that with a good start from the only "clean" starter on Sunday, and we might have something.
Let's hope.
So we're 0-4 and we've given up more than forty runs in just four games. Our best starter has an ERA of 8.31 and didn't even go five innings. Shouldn't I be really concerned?
Well, I am, mostly because I enjoy watching baseball and I'd actually like to watch games that matter come last summer/early fall. But I'm not going over board just yet, and here's why:
Our pitching can't really be this bad. No, really. I mean, Rafael Perez gave up five runs tonight -- Rafael Perez, people! The man never gives up runs! It's unnatural for him, and it's been unnatural for over two years now. This isn't like Cliff Lee or Fausto Carmona -- good one year, bad the next and vice versa -- this is a guy who was pretty much the only reliever we could count on for much of last year (we even had to send Jensen Lewis down to AAA at one point, remember). So there's obviously something going on here.
As I said, bad pitching seems to be contagious.
The other thing that keeps me from freaking out entirely is our division. The Central doesn't really have any one team that stands out from the rest. Ideally, this means we'll have something of a log jam. If the Tribe can just stay with the pack to mid-season, we're still in it. For one, there's the possibility of a deal, which is something that really could happen given how much young talent we have and how many teams will be looking to deal away experienced pitching when they realize they have no chance at making the post-season (just let me have my little Jake Peavy dream, thank you). Almost as good as a trade is the fact that we'll get Jake Westbrook back. While not flashy, Westbrook has generally defined "solid," which is exactly what the Tribe needs. We need someone reliable, because what we have no is a bunch of guys who are erratic. Westbrook's made great progress in his rehab, so hopefully the Tribe can hold him back longer than they really need to just to make sure he's up to speed.
In the meantime, what are the chances that all four of our youngsters (Lewis, Huff, Laffey, and Sowers) bomb? At least one of them is going to step up. Even Cleveland luck isn't that bad.
Our bullpen IS good. The numbers don't lie. We'll get there.
And let's not forget about the good we've seen tonight -- namely, Travis Hafner. He's now hitting .313 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI. Hey, he's on a pace to hit 81 home runs! And drive in 162! Our offense should be fine, assuming we can get the on-base guys going (DeRosa, Cabrera, and the rather painful Francisco).
So I'm not panicking just yet.
But I will say this: tomorrow is a big game for Cliff Lee. Not only does he need to prove that his first start was a fluke, he needs to be a stopper. The Tribe needs a starter to end this downward spiral and if Cliff wants to be our ace, he needs to step up and do it. It actually might be more important for Cliff to pitch well tomorrow than it is for us to win.
Couple that with a good start from the only "clean" starter on Sunday, and we might have something.
Let's hope.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Opening Day Is Here!
Yes, it's finally that time of year again -- time to get down to business and talk about the season to come. As always, I'll give my completely biased, most likely wrong view on how the Tribe will do this year. I should point out, though, that I'm .500 in my AL Central predictions, having picked the Tribe both times in the last two seasons.
Shockingly enough, I'm sticking with a trend and picking the Indians to win the Central again. Why? One very simple reason: depth (which, it should be noted, was the same reason I gave going into the '07 season). We have more position player and pitching depth than any other team in the division. We're going to need some people to step up, but I think that will make the difference.
Here's our opening day line-up:
1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. 1B Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. C Kelly Shoppach
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
We know what we'll get from Grady, more or less. The case that he should move down in the order is a valid one that's more or less defeated by the fact that a) we don't have another viable lead off hitter and b) we have plenty of power further down the order.
Mark DeRosa is going to be huge for us this year, particularly since we haven't gotten consistent production from the #2 spot since the second half of '07 when AC first came up. Victor Martinez has had a good spring and will only get better going forward. Obviously, there are concerns about Pronk, but he's shown a lot of improvement in the last week and a half. I have no problems with throwing him in the fire right off the bat. He's either going to hit or he won't, so why not? Besides, it keeps the order balanced and, as many people have pointed out, he's only the clean-up hitter if everyone ahead of him gets on base in the first inning. After that it really doesn't matter, and it certainly doesn't matter nearly as much as having balance.
Peralta is clearly our ace in the hole on offense and I have a feeling that more and more teams are going to realize that this year. The upside there is that they'll have to pitch to Choo, who has clearly had problems because of the WBC, but we've seen glimmers of what he's capable of. We also know what he can do when he gets consistent time in, so I have confidence in him (and Trevor Crowe, for that matter, if it comes to that).
The Kelly Shoppach/Ryan Garko #7 spot will be interesting to watch, as they're very similar types of hitters. As long as they can both remember that they don't have to hit for the fences every time out (and having six guys ahead of them who can all hit it out helps), they should really produce. Ben Francisco had a nice spring and it would appear that he's developing into the consistent player we all wondered if he could be. Asdrubal Cabrera has also had a nice spring, particularly compared to last year, and I think he lives and dies by his confidence level.
As for our bench, we have:
Garko/Shoppach (see above)
Josh Barfield
Trevor Crowe
Jamey Carroll
As much as I'd rather Crowe get every day ABs in Columbus, you do have to like the speed off the bench we have now. I know the Tribe can't really afford to eat $4 million, but it's nice seeing Crowe get a shot in the majors. And if Jamey Carroll does what he did last year, we should have one of the best benches in baseball.
Let's also not look over the guys we have waiting in the wings, like Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, the aforementiond Trevor Crowe (when Dellucci comes off the DL), Michael Aubrey (who had a great spring), and even Wes Hodges, who made a lot of people take notice in spring training.
As we move to the pitching, let's start with the good and move to the more questionable. Here's our bullpen:
Masa Kobayashi
Rafael Betancourt
Zach Jackson
Joe Smith
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis
Kerry Wood
You may know those last four guys on the list as part of the Guys With Really Low Spring ERAs club. All four dominated during the spring, with Wood only giving up runs in his last appearance. As for our middle relief, there are some serious question marks. Jackson won his job because he's a converted starter and can go multiple innings if needed, but he wasn't exactly impressive in spring training. He's also a lefty. But, his fatal flaw in the past has been that one big inning, so perhaps a middle relief role will get him in and out before that inning pops up.
Rafael Betancourt has been about as inconsistent as he was last year, periodically flashing glimpses of the '07 Betancourt, then reverting to the '08 version. I have no idea what we'll get out of him. Masa Kobayashi has been more or less awful all spring, and most Tribe fans are taking guesses at when he'll be sent down, most likely to be replaced by Vinnie Chulk, who had a great spring.
Regardless, the back end of our bullpen looks really, really impressive.
Now for the biggest question mark we have, our starting rotation:
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes
I have no idea what to expect from Lee, given what he did last year as compared to what he did the year before and what he did in spring training. My best guess would be something between '05 (18-5, 3.79 ERA) and '06 (14-11, 4.40 ERA). I would guess 17 wins and an ERA around 3.50, which I'd be perfectly happy with, even it is a step down from last season.
Fausto Carmona, on the other hand, could be in a position to dominate. If the Tribe has a Cy Young candidate in the rotation this year, I think it's Fausto. He had a great spring and really seems to be returning to his '07 form. I think, by the end of the year, he'll be our ace.
Carl Pavano has gotten better in each of his spring starts. I don't expect him to go much past five innings most games, but I think he'll keep us in the game. I'm thinking something similar to the numbers I gave for Lee above, perhaps fewer wins.
Scott Lewis is a real question mark. He's struggle a great deal since winning a spot on the line-up and he's been giving up a lot of long balls. I'd hazard a guess, but I really have no idea. I'm not too concerned about it, though, as we have a number of guys who could step in for him.
Anthony Reyes had all of one bad outing this spring. I would expect him to pick up where he left off last season. I think he could actually be better than Pavano and get serious consideration as comeback player of the year, right behind Fausto. I do think Wedge will limit his innings, though.
And let's not forget that we should get Jake Westbrook back after the break (earlier, in fact, but I'd be shocked if they didn't hold him out for a while just to be safe). Jake could be the mid-season trade this team needs, really, which is huge. Let's not forget how he was throwing the ball last year before got hurt. He was really dominating, but getting no run support. If he can return to form, slotting him in as the #3 guy would be gold.
Of course we can also look at David Huff, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers, three guys who could show up at any point in the season. While none of them had the best springs, I think starting the season in Columbus will give them all the time they need to show they can take the next step.
So there you go -- the 2009 Clevelan Indians. I'm picking them to win the Central. Beyond that, I'm not saying, as just thinking about it makes me anxious.
As for the rest of baseball, here are my picks:
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Mets
Shockingly enough, I'm sticking with a trend and picking the Indians to win the Central again. Why? One very simple reason: depth (which, it should be noted, was the same reason I gave going into the '07 season). We have more position player and pitching depth than any other team in the division. We're going to need some people to step up, but I think that will make the difference.
Here's our opening day line-up:
1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. 1B Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. C Kelly Shoppach
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
We know what we'll get from Grady, more or less. The case that he should move down in the order is a valid one that's more or less defeated by the fact that a) we don't have another viable lead off hitter and b) we have plenty of power further down the order.
Mark DeRosa is going to be huge for us this year, particularly since we haven't gotten consistent production from the #2 spot since the second half of '07 when AC first came up. Victor Martinez has had a good spring and will only get better going forward. Obviously, there are concerns about Pronk, but he's shown a lot of improvement in the last week and a half. I have no problems with throwing him in the fire right off the bat. He's either going to hit or he won't, so why not? Besides, it keeps the order balanced and, as many people have pointed out, he's only the clean-up hitter if everyone ahead of him gets on base in the first inning. After that it really doesn't matter, and it certainly doesn't matter nearly as much as having balance.
Peralta is clearly our ace in the hole on offense and I have a feeling that more and more teams are going to realize that this year. The upside there is that they'll have to pitch to Choo, who has clearly had problems because of the WBC, but we've seen glimmers of what he's capable of. We also know what he can do when he gets consistent time in, so I have confidence in him (and Trevor Crowe, for that matter, if it comes to that).
The Kelly Shoppach/Ryan Garko #7 spot will be interesting to watch, as they're very similar types of hitters. As long as they can both remember that they don't have to hit for the fences every time out (and having six guys ahead of them who can all hit it out helps), they should really produce. Ben Francisco had a nice spring and it would appear that he's developing into the consistent player we all wondered if he could be. Asdrubal Cabrera has also had a nice spring, particularly compared to last year, and I think he lives and dies by his confidence level.
As for our bench, we have:
Garko/Shoppach (see above)
Josh Barfield
Trevor Crowe
Jamey Carroll
As much as I'd rather Crowe get every day ABs in Columbus, you do have to like the speed off the bench we have now. I know the Tribe can't really afford to eat $4 million, but it's nice seeing Crowe get a shot in the majors. And if Jamey Carroll does what he did last year, we should have one of the best benches in baseball.
Let's also not look over the guys we have waiting in the wings, like Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, the aforementiond Trevor Crowe (when Dellucci comes off the DL), Michael Aubrey (who had a great spring), and even Wes Hodges, who made a lot of people take notice in spring training.
As we move to the pitching, let's start with the good and move to the more questionable. Here's our bullpen:
Masa Kobayashi
Rafael Betancourt
Zach Jackson
Joe Smith
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis
Kerry Wood
You may know those last four guys on the list as part of the Guys With Really Low Spring ERAs club. All four dominated during the spring, with Wood only giving up runs in his last appearance. As for our middle relief, there are some serious question marks. Jackson won his job because he's a converted starter and can go multiple innings if needed, but he wasn't exactly impressive in spring training. He's also a lefty. But, his fatal flaw in the past has been that one big inning, so perhaps a middle relief role will get him in and out before that inning pops up.
Rafael Betancourt has been about as inconsistent as he was last year, periodically flashing glimpses of the '07 Betancourt, then reverting to the '08 version. I have no idea what we'll get out of him. Masa Kobayashi has been more or less awful all spring, and most Tribe fans are taking guesses at when he'll be sent down, most likely to be replaced by Vinnie Chulk, who had a great spring.
Regardless, the back end of our bullpen looks really, really impressive.
Now for the biggest question mark we have, our starting rotation:
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes
I have no idea what to expect from Lee, given what he did last year as compared to what he did the year before and what he did in spring training. My best guess would be something between '05 (18-5, 3.79 ERA) and '06 (14-11, 4.40 ERA). I would guess 17 wins and an ERA around 3.50, which I'd be perfectly happy with, even it is a step down from last season.
Fausto Carmona, on the other hand, could be in a position to dominate. If the Tribe has a Cy Young candidate in the rotation this year, I think it's Fausto. He had a great spring and really seems to be returning to his '07 form. I think, by the end of the year, he'll be our ace.
Carl Pavano has gotten better in each of his spring starts. I don't expect him to go much past five innings most games, but I think he'll keep us in the game. I'm thinking something similar to the numbers I gave for Lee above, perhaps fewer wins.
Scott Lewis is a real question mark. He's struggle a great deal since winning a spot on the line-up and he's been giving up a lot of long balls. I'd hazard a guess, but I really have no idea. I'm not too concerned about it, though, as we have a number of guys who could step in for him.
Anthony Reyes had all of one bad outing this spring. I would expect him to pick up where he left off last season. I think he could actually be better than Pavano and get serious consideration as comeback player of the year, right behind Fausto. I do think Wedge will limit his innings, though.
And let's not forget that we should get Jake Westbrook back after the break (earlier, in fact, but I'd be shocked if they didn't hold him out for a while just to be safe). Jake could be the mid-season trade this team needs, really, which is huge. Let's not forget how he was throwing the ball last year before got hurt. He was really dominating, but getting no run support. If he can return to form, slotting him in as the #3 guy would be gold.
Of course we can also look at David Huff, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers, three guys who could show up at any point in the season. While none of them had the best springs, I think starting the season in Columbus will give them all the time they need to show they can take the next step.
So there you go -- the 2009 Clevelan Indians. I'm picking them to win the Central. Beyond that, I'm not saying, as just thinking about it makes me anxious.
As for the rest of baseball, here are my picks:
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Mets
Monday, March 16, 2009
T-minus 3 Weeks and Counting!
Well, we've broken the three week mark until the opening of the new season and while I generally like to avoid making any kind of observations based upon the first few weeks of spring training, I'm going to do just that. There have been ups and downs already with each faction of the team, but the further along we get, the more and more excited I am, and the more confident I become that this team will actually compete, not just in the AL Central, but in the entire American League.
Rotation
I'm not putting a lot of stock into Cliff Lee's troubles (albeit from two starts). Lee earned the #5 spot in last year's rotation by being the lesser of three evils; he had an awful spring, but it was just a bit less awful than Aaron Laffey's and Jeremy Sower's. In fact, I actually feel pretty good about Lee having a bad spring, since it seemed to allow him to peak just in time for the season to start.
Fausto Carmona is a different story. He's had three outings, two good, one bad, but the last one was good, which is why I'm optimistic. It seems like both Carmona and the staff know exactly what he needs to do to be successful, which is a good sign. He also lost the majority of the weight he'd put on in the off season, which is also good.
Anthony Reyes hasn't pitched a whole lot of innings yet, but he hasn't given up a run yet, either. He appears to be both healthy and on his game.
Carl Pavano is healthy. He's also had two games a different as can be. Again, it's really too early to know, but I'm sure he'll get better as we get closer to opening day.
Perhaps the best thing to come out of spring training (well, one of a few) is the battle for the last spot. Aaron Laffey, Scott Lewis, and Jeremy Sowers all had great starts in their last outings; Lewis was the only one to even give up a run. Sowers got eight ground ball outs in four innings today, and started two double plays on his own. His ERA is 3.00. But while Laffey's ERA is at 7.00, he pitched four no hit innings in his last start. While Lewis looked good in his first appearance, I would handicap his odds, simply because he has the least MLB experience.
Still, to have three guys throwing that well this early in spring training bodes well for the fifth spot and possibly beyond, depending upon how are two reclamation projects (Reyes and Pavano) do.
Bullpen
I am as giddy as a school girl.
Sure, Kerry Wood has only thrown two innings so far (allowing a single hit and no runs), but he's been dominate in those two innings. Rafael Perez has only been in camp for a few days, but his performance in the World Baseball Classic was equally as dominant (even if the rest of his team decided not to show up). And Jensen freaking Lewis has been an absolute beast in each of his appearances; he's yet to allow a run and, from all accounts, he's going at guys like a closer.
We could have the best back end of the bullpen in baseball. No, really.
The loss of Adam Miller (again) was disappointing, but Vinnie Chulk appears primed for a rebirth. He pitched two more scoreless innings today, bringing his ERA down to 2.31 -- and he's gotten a good amount of work as the coaches try to evaluate him. He seems like the current favorite to get the last spot most of us assumed would go to Miller.
Kobayashi is a definite concern, but someone like Zach Jackson would be nice to have in the 'pen, both for length and because he's left handed.
Line-up
Anthony Castrovince over at www.clevelandindians.com made a good point the other day on why the front office are keeping Peralta at short instead of moving him to third. Sure, there's the matter of Peralta having to learn a new position as opposed to using DeRosa who already has big league experience at the hot corner. The bigger issue, though, is that it's not a given that Asdrubal Cabrera will stay in the line-up. At this point, he's yet to prove that he can produce on a regular basis, so the idea of moving our infield around to accommodate a guy who might not make it past the first month is, well, really, really premature.
If Cabrera does falter, the Tribe has a lot of options, options not named Josh Barfield.
Tony Graffanino, entering his 14th season, has really been hitting the ball so far this spring. Given DeRosa's ability to play the outfield, Carroll's ability to play every position in the infield, and Cabrera's ability to switch over to short stop, I wouldn't be surprised if the last spot on the roster goes to Graffanino instead of Barfield (who they're trying to get some time in the outfield). He's just performing much better than Barfield, who still has options left.
The other option is really encouraging, as well: Wes Hodges is having a really good spring. Were there suddenly an opening at second, it would be interesting to see if the Tribe would consider moving DeRosa over there and bringing up Hodges to play 3rd, perhaps platooning with Carroll until he gets comfortable in the majors. Regardless, it's a great to see him performing well, as he is, more or less, the future of third base for the Tribe.
I'll say this much: the Columbus Clippers should be really good this year!
Rotation
I'm not putting a lot of stock into Cliff Lee's troubles (albeit from two starts). Lee earned the #5 spot in last year's rotation by being the lesser of three evils; he had an awful spring, but it was just a bit less awful than Aaron Laffey's and Jeremy Sower's. In fact, I actually feel pretty good about Lee having a bad spring, since it seemed to allow him to peak just in time for the season to start.
Fausto Carmona is a different story. He's had three outings, two good, one bad, but the last one was good, which is why I'm optimistic. It seems like both Carmona and the staff know exactly what he needs to do to be successful, which is a good sign. He also lost the majority of the weight he'd put on in the off season, which is also good.
Anthony Reyes hasn't pitched a whole lot of innings yet, but he hasn't given up a run yet, either. He appears to be both healthy and on his game.
Carl Pavano is healthy. He's also had two games a different as can be. Again, it's really too early to know, but I'm sure he'll get better as we get closer to opening day.
Perhaps the best thing to come out of spring training (well, one of a few) is the battle for the last spot. Aaron Laffey, Scott Lewis, and Jeremy Sowers all had great starts in their last outings; Lewis was the only one to even give up a run. Sowers got eight ground ball outs in four innings today, and started two double plays on his own. His ERA is 3.00. But while Laffey's ERA is at 7.00, he pitched four no hit innings in his last start. While Lewis looked good in his first appearance, I would handicap his odds, simply because he has the least MLB experience.
Still, to have three guys throwing that well this early in spring training bodes well for the fifth spot and possibly beyond, depending upon how are two reclamation projects (Reyes and Pavano) do.
Bullpen
I am as giddy as a school girl.
Sure, Kerry Wood has only thrown two innings so far (allowing a single hit and no runs), but he's been dominate in those two innings. Rafael Perez has only been in camp for a few days, but his performance in the World Baseball Classic was equally as dominant (even if the rest of his team decided not to show up). And Jensen freaking Lewis has been an absolute beast in each of his appearances; he's yet to allow a run and, from all accounts, he's going at guys like a closer.
We could have the best back end of the bullpen in baseball. No, really.
The loss of Adam Miller (again) was disappointing, but Vinnie Chulk appears primed for a rebirth. He pitched two more scoreless innings today, bringing his ERA down to 2.31 -- and he's gotten a good amount of work as the coaches try to evaluate him. He seems like the current favorite to get the last spot most of us assumed would go to Miller.
Kobayashi is a definite concern, but someone like Zach Jackson would be nice to have in the 'pen, both for length and because he's left handed.
Line-up
Anthony Castrovince over at www.clevelandindians.com made a good point the other day on why the front office are keeping Peralta at short instead of moving him to third. Sure, there's the matter of Peralta having to learn a new position as opposed to using DeRosa who already has big league experience at the hot corner. The bigger issue, though, is that it's not a given that Asdrubal Cabrera will stay in the line-up. At this point, he's yet to prove that he can produce on a regular basis, so the idea of moving our infield around to accommodate a guy who might not make it past the first month is, well, really, really premature.
If Cabrera does falter, the Tribe has a lot of options, options not named Josh Barfield.
Tony Graffanino, entering his 14th season, has really been hitting the ball so far this spring. Given DeRosa's ability to play the outfield, Carroll's ability to play every position in the infield, and Cabrera's ability to switch over to short stop, I wouldn't be surprised if the last spot on the roster goes to Graffanino instead of Barfield (who they're trying to get some time in the outfield). He's just performing much better than Barfield, who still has options left.
The other option is really encouraging, as well: Wes Hodges is having a really good spring. Were there suddenly an opening at second, it would be interesting to see if the Tribe would consider moving DeRosa over there and bringing up Hodges to play 3rd, perhaps platooning with Carroll until he gets comfortable in the majors. Regardless, it's a great to see him performing well, as he is, more or less, the future of third base for the Tribe.
I'll say this much: the Columbus Clippers should be really good this year!
Saturday, January 3, 2009
I'm going to ponder DeRosa
Yes, that's a pun.
It's hard to argue with the trade for DeRosa. I mean, it's really, really hard to argue with it.
Now, in my pipe dream fantasy, the trade was the first part of a bigger move, a move that sends DeRosa and some young pitching to San Diego for Jake Peavy. After all, DeRosa was a big part of the talks between the Cubs and the Padres. And, to be perfectly honest, I'm much more comfortable having unknown quantities in our infield than I am in our rotation, as I think we can piece together good defense if need be.
I also figured Kelly Shoppach would be a good start for a trade to get Peavy, too. I know people love Kelly Shoppach, but the bottom line is that his trade value is never going to be higher and we have decent depth at catcher in the minors. That said, I'm afraid that Garko's inconsistent offense last season makes keeping Shoppach something of a necessity this year, so he can fill in for Martinez when Victor has to move over to first.
And I was also keen on getting Brian Roberts from Baltimore. Yes, it would have force major changes to the infield, but it also would have allowed Sizemore to move down in the order, something that would have given us more coverage in the middle of the line-up if Travis Hafner is a bust. Granted, that's assuming Wedge and Shapiro ever, ever realize it's time to move Grady down.
But let's live in the now and look at the reality of the situation.
Mark DeRosa's average from last year is better than anyone else on our roster from last year (Peralta led the team with a .276 avg.) He'd be tied for third in home runs (with Shoppach). He'd be fourth in RBI, just two behind Peralta. And he'd be second in runs scored, just 1 behind Peralta. In other words, that's some heavy duty offense we're adding to the team.
Putting DeRosa at third gives us a consistent bat there. Leaving Jhonny at short gives us a consistent bat there. And we now have at least three players battling for the starting job at second (Cabrera, Barfield, and Valbuena). With the flexibility of the Garko/Martinez/Shoppach platoon at first and behind the plate, our offense should be, at the very least, solid.
The question, of course, is whether or not Wes Hodges, after a single season at AAA (where he's never played) could grow enough to win the starting job at third in 2010, as we'll be right back where we started.
My big concern now is the rotation. Here's why:
Cliff Lee -- No one expects him to pitch like he did in '08, but something close to that is going to be needed in an American League filled with teams with multiple aces
Fausto Carmona -- just as we need the '08 Lee, we need the '07 Carmona. Let's hope last season was a result of his injury.
Anthony Reyes -- Can he stay healthy? Can he pitch like he did at the end of last year? Can he be consistent?
Scott Lewis -- Can HE pitch like he did at the end of last year for an entire year?
Aaron Laffey -- Can he turn the corner and pitch well for an entire year?
Jeremy Sowers -- Can he return to his first season form and maintain that for a year?
Zach Jackson -- Can he get past the one bad inning that always seems to bring him down?
David Huff -- Is he ready for the majors?
Jake Westbrook -- Will he come back at full strength by mid-season?
That's a lot of questions for an essential part of a team. I'll admit, it's nice to have 8 (and a half, if you count Westbrook) guys for just five spots, but still.
Spring training is going to be very interesting.
It's hard to argue with the trade for DeRosa. I mean, it's really, really hard to argue with it.
Now, in my pipe dream fantasy, the trade was the first part of a bigger move, a move that sends DeRosa and some young pitching to San Diego for Jake Peavy. After all, DeRosa was a big part of the talks between the Cubs and the Padres. And, to be perfectly honest, I'm much more comfortable having unknown quantities in our infield than I am in our rotation, as I think we can piece together good defense if need be.
I also figured Kelly Shoppach would be a good start for a trade to get Peavy, too. I know people love Kelly Shoppach, but the bottom line is that his trade value is never going to be higher and we have decent depth at catcher in the minors. That said, I'm afraid that Garko's inconsistent offense last season makes keeping Shoppach something of a necessity this year, so he can fill in for Martinez when Victor has to move over to first.
And I was also keen on getting Brian Roberts from Baltimore. Yes, it would have force major changes to the infield, but it also would have allowed Sizemore to move down in the order, something that would have given us more coverage in the middle of the line-up if Travis Hafner is a bust. Granted, that's assuming Wedge and Shapiro ever, ever realize it's time to move Grady down.
But let's live in the now and look at the reality of the situation.
Mark DeRosa's average from last year is better than anyone else on our roster from last year (Peralta led the team with a .276 avg.) He'd be tied for third in home runs (with Shoppach). He'd be fourth in RBI, just two behind Peralta. And he'd be second in runs scored, just 1 behind Peralta. In other words, that's some heavy duty offense we're adding to the team.
Putting DeRosa at third gives us a consistent bat there. Leaving Jhonny at short gives us a consistent bat there. And we now have at least three players battling for the starting job at second (Cabrera, Barfield, and Valbuena). With the flexibility of the Garko/Martinez/Shoppach platoon at first and behind the plate, our offense should be, at the very least, solid.
The question, of course, is whether or not Wes Hodges, after a single season at AAA (where he's never played) could grow enough to win the starting job at third in 2010, as we'll be right back where we started.
My big concern now is the rotation. Here's why:
Cliff Lee -- No one expects him to pitch like he did in '08, but something close to that is going to be needed in an American League filled with teams with multiple aces
Fausto Carmona -- just as we need the '08 Lee, we need the '07 Carmona. Let's hope last season was a result of his injury.
Anthony Reyes -- Can he stay healthy? Can he pitch like he did at the end of last year? Can he be consistent?
Scott Lewis -- Can HE pitch like he did at the end of last year for an entire year?
Aaron Laffey -- Can he turn the corner and pitch well for an entire year?
Jeremy Sowers -- Can he return to his first season form and maintain that for a year?
Zach Jackson -- Can he get past the one bad inning that always seems to bring him down?
David Huff -- Is he ready for the majors?
Jake Westbrook -- Will he come back at full strength by mid-season?
That's a lot of questions for an essential part of a team. I'll admit, it's nice to have 8 (and a half, if you count Westbrook) guys for just five spots, but still.
Spring training is going to be very interesting.
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