So, here, we are, the end of May. The only thing keeping most people from paying attention to the Indians has gone away, the same way that most good things go away for Cleveland fans: painfully. There's no more shiny thing to distract us. In a few days, most of us will get over the latest in a long line of Cleveland sports miseries and focus will be placed squarely on our baseball team.
It's the end of May, the Tribe is 22-30, 8 games under .500 and 7.5 games out of first place. Oh, and that's not even the worst of it.
No, the worst of it is this:
Victor Martinez
Grady Sizemore
Travis Hafner
Joe Smith
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Lewis
Aaron Laffey
Jake Westbrook
Anthony Reyes
That is the list of players who are currently injured (although Martinez is day to day and not on the DL). The bottom third of our order today is hitting .211 or less. The (arguably) three remaining faces of our franchise since C.C. left -- Victor, Grady, and Pronk -- were no where to be seen. And there are now SIX pitchers on that list.
This all begs the question: how the heck do we win?
The truly frustrating team about this team is that, as bad as they've been, they're not yet completely out of it. All the teams in the division have flaws and one good winning streak against division rivals could put the Tribe on top. But you really have to wonder how that's possible when we're missing our RBI leader, our home run leaders, and we only have two dependable starters? How do we win more than 40% of our games with Fausto Carmona's continued problems and the back of our rotation made up of Jeremy Sowers and David Huff?
I don't know that we can. But here are some rather hopeful ideas.
First, we have to pray that Victor Martinez is only out for a few days. We're done without him. There's no way around that.
Second, we need to make a deal for a starter. We don't need an ace (we have one) or even a #2 (as Pavano has stepped it up). We need a back of the rotation guy who can give us a fight chance every five days and who can keep us competitive through the month of June. A guy like Brad Penny is a good option, but there's probably going to be a bidding war for him (I would guess, at this point, that it would take at least Kelly Shoppach to get him -- which I'm fine with).
Grady going on the DL isn't as bad as it seems. He's been ineffective so far this year and hasn't played outfield for a few weeks now. With Pronk need yet MORE rehab, this means we finally have a shot of getting Ryan Garko in the line-up. So we're going to need him to produce.
It's time to call up Jordan Brown. Wedge seems understandably hesitant to go with a young outfield, so it seems like DeRosa will get more time there. Brown has also gotten some time in the outfield recently, or he can play first when Garko is DHing, or even DH if need be. But, as of right now, if we have DeRosa in the outfield and Garko at first, we have no real hitter available to DH, at least no one with power. Brown's got a higher SLG in Columbus than LaPorta.
I stand by my "second starter" theory and, while Vinnie Chulk has been performing well in Columbus and is a righty, Zach Jackson can give us more innings. He just can't ever start for us again. Bring him in from the 'pen for three innings every three days or so, but no more.
Here's something to think about:
Cliff Lee
Carl Pavano
Jake Westbrook
Aaron Laffey
Scott Lewis
That's assuming Fausto doesn't get his act together (and it doesn't look like he will). But THAT is a rotation that can win the Central. But it's going to be another month before that's even a possibility.
Do we have anything in our favor that could get us to that point, to the All Star break? Well, no, not really. We're not facing any of the other bad teams in the AL until we get Oakland 4th of July weekend. In the meantime, we face six series against Central teams and then interleague play against arguably the best division in baseball right now.
That does mean, however, that if we manage to stay close by the All Star break, we have a much easier schedule in the second half, including a second series against Oakland and two each against Seattle and Baltimore, not to mention 9 games against Detroit, who seem to be the the best team in the division right now (and 12 against Minnesota, who could be right there as well).
So there IS hope.
How long it sticks around, though, should be evident in the next 30 days.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Once More, Into the Breach
The Indians suck.
Let's not humor ourselves into thinking otherwise.
In fact, I'm going to try not to go completely insane while writing this. I won't get all angry about the fact that the last four guys in our line-up today are hitting a combines .186 and that both Francisco and Garko have higher averages than all of them (Garko even has a higher average against righties). I'll hold back from punching the wall when I mention that Mark DeRosa's a life long second baseman who has played over 2100 innings at that position, yet hasn't played more than 10 games worth at first. I'll refrain from screaming at our new platoon at second base which only serves to a) break up momentum and b) take ABs at one of the best bats on our team (Ryan Garko). I'll even bite my tongue on the fact that our lead off man has the second lowest OBP of all the lead off men in the AL (third worst in baseball).
No, perhaps it might be better to do what I did last time, and throw out some crazy ideas, as the last one I threw out (Laffey to the 'pen) actually happened, and has ultimately helped more than it hurt (just barely).
We should continue to carry 8 relievers, because there's no reason not to. Our much hyped "versatility" means we don't need to carry as many position players. So 8 relievers and 5 starters will leave us with 12 spots, which should be, as of this very moment:
Choo
Sizemore
LaPorta
Francisco
Peralta
Cabrera
DeRosa
Garko
Martinez
Shoppach
Carroll
Dellucci*
*Based only upon the assumption that the Tribe will never part with him.
Valbuena needs to go back to Columbus to play every day.
That line-up not only gives us some flexibility, it also gives us stability. Also, Kelly Shoppach needs to return to his '07 position: he catches for one guy, and this time around it's Cliff Lee (that is, of course, unless the Tribe goes out and signs free agent Paul Byrd, which I'm thinking they should probably look into right now).
Then there's our rotation. Obviously, Cliff Lee is back in form. We've got to keep Fausto, just for the occasionally glimpses of greatness we get. Pavano only last 5 innings today, but he did manage to keep us in the game. Beyond that? Well, I don't know. That has a lot to do with our bullpen.
After Anthony Reyes' last outing, I became convinced it was time to move him to long relief. He didn't give up a single hit in his first three innings of work yesterday. But after one time through the order, they figured him out and he got hit hard. This seems to be a trend for Reyes -- just like Jeremy Sowers. As we don't have a right hander to compliment Laffey, maybe it's time to make that person Reyes.
Sure, this would leave us with yet ANOTHER hole in our rotation, but at this point it wouldn't be much of a hole.
In fact, I would suggest bringing Tomo Ohka from Columbus. His numbers have actually been better than David Huff, the guy we're calling up for tomorrow's start.
And then? Then I would start something called "2nd Starter."
We've already seen this happen with Laffey. In his very first relief appearance, he came in after Pavano went six innings to get a three inning save. And I think this will have to continue.
It's time to start pairing people up.
Look at it this way: Cliff Lee can pitch deep, so he won't need this kind of help. That leaves us with four starters who will all need "2nd Starters." We carry 8 relievers, that leaves us with four guys to choose from each night if our 1st and 2nd starters only get us through seven.
You heard me.
My crazy theory is this:
Rotation
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
David Huff
Tomo Ohka (until Scott Lewis returns)
2nd Starters
Aaron Laffey
Anthony Reyes
Zach Jackson
Jeremy Sowers
Relievers
Tony Sipp
Rafael Betancourt
Luis Vizcaino/Matt Herges
Closer
Kerry Wood
In theory, when Scott Lewis returns we can cut down on a second starter, assuming Lewis can pick up where he left off when he was healthy last year. For that matter, we have no idea that Huff won't be able to go deep into games, but, at this point, why take a chance? Over time, we'll need our 2nd Starters less and less. And, over time, we'll get back a healthy Joe Smith, an improved Rafeal Perez and Jensen Lewis from AAA, and a healthy Jake Westbrook.
Is my idea insane? Sure, but if it can keep us within striking distance until the All-Star break, why not give it a shot?
Let's not humor ourselves into thinking otherwise.
In fact, I'm going to try not to go completely insane while writing this. I won't get all angry about the fact that the last four guys in our line-up today are hitting a combines .186 and that both Francisco and Garko have higher averages than all of them (Garko even has a higher average against righties). I'll hold back from punching the wall when I mention that Mark DeRosa's a life long second baseman who has played over 2100 innings at that position, yet hasn't played more than 10 games worth at first. I'll refrain from screaming at our new platoon at second base which only serves to a) break up momentum and b) take ABs at one of the best bats on our team (Ryan Garko). I'll even bite my tongue on the fact that our lead off man has the second lowest OBP of all the lead off men in the AL (third worst in baseball).
No, perhaps it might be better to do what I did last time, and throw out some crazy ideas, as the last one I threw out (Laffey to the 'pen) actually happened, and has ultimately helped more than it hurt (just barely).
We should continue to carry 8 relievers, because there's no reason not to. Our much hyped "versatility" means we don't need to carry as many position players. So 8 relievers and 5 starters will leave us with 12 spots, which should be, as of this very moment:
Choo
Sizemore
LaPorta
Francisco
Peralta
Cabrera
DeRosa
Garko
Martinez
Shoppach
Carroll
Dellucci*
*Based only upon the assumption that the Tribe will never part with him.
Valbuena needs to go back to Columbus to play every day.
That line-up not only gives us some flexibility, it also gives us stability. Also, Kelly Shoppach needs to return to his '07 position: he catches for one guy, and this time around it's Cliff Lee (that is, of course, unless the Tribe goes out and signs free agent Paul Byrd, which I'm thinking they should probably look into right now).
Then there's our rotation. Obviously, Cliff Lee is back in form. We've got to keep Fausto, just for the occasionally glimpses of greatness we get. Pavano only last 5 innings today, but he did manage to keep us in the game. Beyond that? Well, I don't know. That has a lot to do with our bullpen.
After Anthony Reyes' last outing, I became convinced it was time to move him to long relief. He didn't give up a single hit in his first three innings of work yesterday. But after one time through the order, they figured him out and he got hit hard. This seems to be a trend for Reyes -- just like Jeremy Sowers. As we don't have a right hander to compliment Laffey, maybe it's time to make that person Reyes.
Sure, this would leave us with yet ANOTHER hole in our rotation, but at this point it wouldn't be much of a hole.
In fact, I would suggest bringing Tomo Ohka from Columbus. His numbers have actually been better than David Huff, the guy we're calling up for tomorrow's start.
And then? Then I would start something called "2nd Starter."
We've already seen this happen with Laffey. In his very first relief appearance, he came in after Pavano went six innings to get a three inning save. And I think this will have to continue.
It's time to start pairing people up.
Look at it this way: Cliff Lee can pitch deep, so he won't need this kind of help. That leaves us with four starters who will all need "2nd Starters." We carry 8 relievers, that leaves us with four guys to choose from each night if our 1st and 2nd starters only get us through seven.
You heard me.
My crazy theory is this:
Rotation
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
David Huff
Tomo Ohka (until Scott Lewis returns)
2nd Starters
Aaron Laffey
Anthony Reyes
Zach Jackson
Jeremy Sowers
Relievers
Tony Sipp
Rafael Betancourt
Luis Vizcaino/Matt Herges
Closer
Kerry Wood
In theory, when Scott Lewis returns we can cut down on a second starter, assuming Lewis can pick up where he left off when he was healthy last year. For that matter, we have no idea that Huff won't be able to go deep into games, but, at this point, why take a chance? Over time, we'll need our 2nd Starters less and less. And, over time, we'll get back a healthy Joe Smith, an improved Rafeal Perez and Jensen Lewis from AAA, and a healthy Jake Westbrook.
Is my idea insane? Sure, but if it can keep us within striking distance until the All-Star break, why not give it a shot?
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Drastic Times
Well, here we are, 25 games into the season, 5 games out of first place at 9-16. I would call this season a bust if it weren't for the fact that our division is so tightly packed. But time is running out and I think it's time for some drastic moves.
So here, without further ado, are Kyle's Drastic Move Suggestions:
1) Call up David Huff for the bullpen. Huff is currently 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA as a starter in Columbus. I know that the Tribe would like to keep him as a starter. But he's also got 23 K's in 28 innings and a heck of an arm. I say we give him a shot in the 'pen and return him to the rotation next year -- or hopefully later this year, as Lewis and Perez get themselves figured out. He's a lefty, though, so we'd still be missing a right handed set up man.
2) Play Ryan Garko every day. With the DH open, we can still get Victor into the line-up when Shoppach is catching. Garko has the second highest AVG on the team with runners in scoring position. Considering how often Wedge laments our poor at bats in those situations, why ISN'T Garko in the line-up every day? He's also hitting .293 with limited ABs.
3) While the sample size for both of them is pretty small, Asdrubal Cabrera's on base percentage is .435, second only to Victor Martinez. Grady Sizemore's is 100 points lower. On the flipside, though, Grady is currently tied for 1st in RBI. AC currently has 4 stolen bases to Grady's 5. I think you can see where I'm going with this. While I'd love to wait and make sure that Cabrera's numbers are for real, it's time to get drastic. Let's move him to the lead off spot and move Grady down in the order.
4) Cabrera, Garko, DeRosa, and Martinez need to play every day. They're the only ones hitting over .260 with RISP. As this has been one of our biggest problems, there's no reason any of them should ever sit.
5) Get LaPorta and Valbuena in two out of every three games. Why not?
BONUS SUPER CRAZY, IRRATIONALLY DRASTIC IDEA
6) Move Aaron Laffey to the bullpen and call up Jeremy Sowers, who's been very good in Columbus. Sure, that sounds insane, considering how much our rotation improved when Laffey came up, but bare with me. Laffey does something that no one in our bullpen appears able to do: get double play balls. Imagine being able to bring someone in to get a double play ball and having him actually do it. That would be invaluable. Granted, this move would also be dependent upon Pavano continuing to pitch well and actually turning into a #3 guy, not to mention the good Jeremy Sowers sticking around for a while (at least until Scott Lewis is healthy).
Like I said, drastic times call for drastic measures and I, for one, would have no problems with any of these moves. At this point, I'd take any changes they'd be willing to make.
So here, without further ado, are Kyle's Drastic Move Suggestions:
1) Call up David Huff for the bullpen. Huff is currently 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA as a starter in Columbus. I know that the Tribe would like to keep him as a starter. But he's also got 23 K's in 28 innings and a heck of an arm. I say we give him a shot in the 'pen and return him to the rotation next year -- or hopefully later this year, as Lewis and Perez get themselves figured out. He's a lefty, though, so we'd still be missing a right handed set up man.
2) Play Ryan Garko every day. With the DH open, we can still get Victor into the line-up when Shoppach is catching. Garko has the second highest AVG on the team with runners in scoring position. Considering how often Wedge laments our poor at bats in those situations, why ISN'T Garko in the line-up every day? He's also hitting .293 with limited ABs.
3) While the sample size for both of them is pretty small, Asdrubal Cabrera's on base percentage is .435, second only to Victor Martinez. Grady Sizemore's is 100 points lower. On the flipside, though, Grady is currently tied for 1st in RBI. AC currently has 4 stolen bases to Grady's 5. I think you can see where I'm going with this. While I'd love to wait and make sure that Cabrera's numbers are for real, it's time to get drastic. Let's move him to the lead off spot and move Grady down in the order.
4) Cabrera, Garko, DeRosa, and Martinez need to play every day. They're the only ones hitting over .260 with RISP. As this has been one of our biggest problems, there's no reason any of them should ever sit.
5) Get LaPorta and Valbuena in two out of every three games. Why not?
BONUS SUPER CRAZY, IRRATIONALLY DRASTIC IDEA
6) Move Aaron Laffey to the bullpen and call up Jeremy Sowers, who's been very good in Columbus. Sure, that sounds insane, considering how much our rotation improved when Laffey came up, but bare with me. Laffey does something that no one in our bullpen appears able to do: get double play balls. Imagine being able to bring someone in to get a double play ball and having him actually do it. That would be invaluable. Granted, this move would also be dependent upon Pavano continuing to pitch well and actually turning into a #3 guy, not to mention the good Jeremy Sowers sticking around for a while (at least until Scott Lewis is healthy).
Like I said, drastic times call for drastic measures and I, for one, would have no problems with any of these moves. At this point, I'd take any changes they'd be willing to make.
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