Spring Is Here!

Ye gads, I missed a day! I've been so good about posting every Tuesday and Friday but yesterday just passed by without notice. I blame my newly pending (over a year from now) nuptials. Every time I sit down to write, my fiance blinds me with that diamond I just paid for.

And speaking of diamonds, let's talk baseball!

(Yes, I did that)

There was an interesting spring training preview for the Tribe up on CNNSI.com the other day. In it, they mention something I hadn't heard anywhere before (a side note, I thought they were particularly harsh on our boys, but I suppose teams that don't make big deals are boring to sports writers): Peralta to 2nd so Cabrera can play shortstop.

This would obviously never happen because Cleveland sports teams in general thrive on the belief that if it ain't broke, don't fix it (the simple fact that it's taken the Cavs this long to make a trade is a good point to that effect). But a decent argument could be made that 2nd requires less range than shortstop. Ultimately, though, the idea of moving Peralta to third has more merit, simply because we don't have a viable third baseman after this season, but we do have a viable additional middle inflielder.

This could be a difficult spring for Franklin Gutierrez. The big criticism about the Tribe is that we have no pop in our line-up beyond the middle of the order, that our bottom third is a steep drop off. That's a legitimate concern. If you look at the projected bottom of the order, you know what you're going to get from Casey Blake. Franklin Gutierrez, on the other hand, is somewhat of an unknown. His Buffalo numbers seem to indicate that he could step up and really produce, but he hasn't had the time in Cleveland to really prove that, and his performance in the post-season (giant homerun in Boston notwithstanding) was less than encouraging.

Perhaps in a worse position is Shin Soo Choo who will more than likely take the final spot on the bench, blocking the path of minor league batting champ Ben Francisco. Choo has shown some great ability in the few games he's play in Cleveland, but Francisco's stock is extremely high coming into spring training. There could be a point a few months in when people are clamoring for Francisco to get the call, and since Choo is out of options he also might be out of luck.

But the person who really has the most on his shoulders -- whether he knows it or not -- is David Dellucci. Yes, he knocked in the winning run in one of the greatest games we saw last year, but no one seemed terribly upset when he went down with an injury. At that point he was hitting .230. Even worse, his injury paved the way for the return of Kenny Lofton, who clearly added a spark to the team and the city.

Ideally, Dellucci should be hitting second. He hit .292 with the Phillies in 2006, but only drove in 39 runs with that average. He needs to be the one brought in, not the one getting people in, something a .292 average and a spot ahead of Hafner, Martinez, and Garko would allow for. And as much as I like the "I can bunt more times in a row than anyone ever" ability of Asdrubal Cabrera in the 2 spot, I don't know if we can expect a repeat performance from him at that level.

Oh, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Adam Miller has been shut down for a week becasue of a blister...again.

Jeremy Sowers seems to have worked out his problems from last year and his velocity has increased over the winter. At the same time, Cliff Lee's command of his fastball appears to be back, so I'll stick with my predicition that Lee gets the 5 spot in the rotation.

Perhaps the biggest question for the Tribe when they start the season is who will be on their roster by the end of the year. Even if they stay in contention (which would rule out dealing any of their big guns), they still have a number of people they could move for the right price, from Andy Marte to Shin Soo Choo to Cliff Lee or even Paul Byrd (who's contract is up after this year).

I know it's only spring training, but I, for one, am excited about the games starting up again.

Chemistry

There were some interesting articles out this morning around the web about how the Tribe players feel about the fact that there were no real changes made to their roster in the off season. They all said that it only served to build their confidence that the front office felt no need to bring in new players or trade people to stay competitive. Someone even mentioned that the other teams were making deals to compete with the Tribe, the implication being that the Tribe were the top of the line and other teams were making moves to join them.

Along with those articles, there were a few character pieces, small stories about how the guys interact with each other now that they're back together for this extremely long season. And for as much as Tribe fans might complain about a lack of another bat at 3rd or in the outfield, it's clear during the season that strength of character and team chemistry ultimately mean the most.

How else, for example, can you explain the almost irrational (and I'm guilty of this) fondness of Josh Barfield that so many Tribe fans had? Or, on the flipside, the almost irrational dislike for Jhonny Peralta? Barfield was just as guilty of poor fielding as Peralta (and worse throws) and certainly hit much worse, yet Peralta never got the benefit of the doubt. The bottom line: Barfield has personality. And Peralta, by virtue of saying little, doesn't come across as well.

Another great example is Barfield's (former?) roomate, Ryan Garko. Remember the crazy outcry when there was a chance he wouldn't make the roster last year? Again, Garko is well spoken and personable, exactly the kind of guy we like on our team.

Which is exactly why possibly losing C.C. is so hard. Second perhaps only to Victor Martinez, C.C. is the party guy. He and Victor could have smiling contests. And C.C. does nothing but compliment his teammates. There was a moment in '04 where C.C. had pitched a great game only to hand the ball to David Riske for the close. Riske, as was the norm for every member of that bullpen, blew the save rathter handily. Afterwards, Sabathia said he had no concerns about giving the ball to Riske again (C.C. was probably the only one who felt that way). And I can't even count the number of times I've read quotes from Sabathia about how Martinez makes him better.

For as worried as Tribe fans might be about the state of the AL Central, we all need to take a look at our team and remember what they accomplished last year -- and why we cared so much. It's not just what they did, it's how they did it, and it's nice to have that same group of guys back.

Projections

Spring training games begin next week, and considering all the talk about 2009 that we've already heard, let's say we pull back a bit and start to talking about the end results of the next month.

Yes, it's time for wild speculation, although in the case of the Indians there's not much room for that.

Here's what I would imagine our starting line-up will be, Opening Day of 2008:

Grady Sizemore CF
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
Travis Hafner DH
Victor Martinez C
Ryan Garko 1B
Jhonny Peralta SS
David Delucci/Jason Michaels LF
Franklin Gutierrez RF
Casey Blake 3B

With the platoon in left, we'll have spots for three people on the bench, so I'm relatively sure (barring a trade) that we'll get Jaime Carroll, Shin Soo Choo, and Andy Marte.

The bullpen is also laid out pretty clearly:

Borowski
Betancourt
Perez
Lewis
Kobayashi
Fultz

Even money is that Tom Mastny gets the last spot, although Scott Elarton put up decent numbers from the bullpen in Buffalo last year, so you never now. You have to figure Brendon Donnelly has something to prove and he does have some talent. I think Mastny might be able to live on his Ortiz/Ramirez glory from the post-season.

The rotation is only a bit more interesting:

Sabathia
Carmona
Westbrook
Byrd
Laffey/Lee/Sowers

Now, at first look I'd go with Laffey winning this spot. You have to like how he pitched when he got his chance last year. On the other hand, we know Sowers has real talent and he seems like a really nice guy as opposed to, say, Cliff Lee who desperately needs a PR guy in Cleveland. That said, the intellectual part of me points to the fact that Lee is a big league pitcher who had a bad year and that the bad year was unusual for him. As much as I'd like to see the youngsters get a shot, I'm leaning towards Lee getting the final spot.

Lofgren needs a full year at Buffalo, I think, and Miller needs to throw a decent number of games without getting hurt.

Buffalo should have a hell of a rotation if my predictions hold: Miller, Laffey, Sowers, and Lofgren, plus probably Brian Slocum.

As for call ups during the season, I'll hold off on any guesses there until we see a few spring training games. My initial impulse is to point towards Laffey or Sowers and Ben Francisco or Josh Barfield, but we'll see how they do in the practice games.

...Aaaaaand there it is.

Dear Adam Miller,

Time to live up to the hype.

Your friend,

Kyle

A mere 48 hours after my last blog, C.C. made it known that he and his agent would be suspending any contract negotiations until after the '08 season aka he will be a free agent. And while there remains some small grain of hope, this can't be a good sign. At least he didn't say he'd have to have the Indians jersey torn off his body.

So where does this leave us?

In some ways, if the Indians DON'T compete next season it might not be the worst thing that ever happened. Because then the Tribe could deal C.C., not to mention perhaps move some of the other expiring contracts like Michaels and Byrd (and Dellucci, although he has another year) and make some call ups. Because let's face facts, starting your rookie season with the expectation of stepping in for C.C. is daunting.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still picking the Tribe to win the Central as no one has been able to convince me that the Tigers aren't going to have the same exact problems they had last year. But there's a silver lining if we don't.

We're looking at replacing 2/5 of our rotation next year as opposed to more than likely none (assuming Laffey gets the 5 spot again) this year. And while we should have money to spend on the free agent market, we might need that for a third baseman or a closer.

So who's ready for such a step up? Will Adam Miller stay healthy? Will Jeremy Sowers return to form? Will another year in Buffalo be enough for Chuck Lofgren? And the real kicker, is Cliff Lee still salvageable?

The Tribe doesn't seem to have a lot of question marks this year. Next year, however...the mind boggles.

The future is now!

The word on the various Cleveland sports web sites is that the deal with C.C. is not being held up because of money, but because of length. The Indians have offered a 4 year deal at close to $20 million, while C.C.'s camp would like something longer. I can't imagine the Tribe locking in for that much money for more than four years, though.

Regardless of how it turns out, this move is going to affect the farm system one way or the other. If C.C. resigns, 1/3 of our total payroll will be going to him. If you thought the Indians were thrifty when it came to free agents before, you ain't seen nothin'. That means we'll need guys from AAA to step up into spots where we might look for free agents.

On the flip side, if C.C. goes that means we'll need our younger pitchers to step in and to step in big. They'll have some awfully big shoes to help fill.

In the end, the C.C. deal will tax our farm system one way or the other. The question is whether our pitchers or our hitters can suffer it more easily.

Let's look at our pitchers. Adam Miller could be an ace if he stays healthy, but I can't imagine sticking him in a rotation where he'll be expected to pick up the slack that C.C. has left will do him that much good. You'd have to think we'd want his expectations to be pretty low for his first year. The same can be said for Laffey, Lofgren, Sowers, et al. Stepping in to replace Paul Byrd is one thing; stepping in to replace C.C. would be quite another.

Something else to consider: in the latest issue of Scout magazine, they compare Miller to other pitchers, one of which being Joe Nathan. Evidently, there's some thought that Miller could close. I can't see that happening if C.C. leaves, though.

As for our hitters, if there's a fast track to the majors through the Indians farm system, it's at third. I can't imagine the Indians paying Casey Blake to stick around after this year; they really need to find a guy to stick in there for years to come. Unfortunately, Andy Marte isn't hitting. The top rated third baseman in our farm system is Wes Hodges, but that's mostly for his bat. He had 19 errors in 93 games last year, although he'll start the season in Akron regardless. It will be interesting to see if they move number one prospect Jordan Brown from 1st to 3rd when he moves to Buffalo. Regardless, something's going to have to give over the course of the next year.

In other words, the Tribe might have to pay for a third baseman at some point.

There's left field, too, of course, although the sole outflield position available on the Tribe's bench (with the Michaels, Delucci platoon in left) will most likely go to Shin Soo Choo who is out of options. That's fine with me as I've always liked him and he seems to have real talent, I just hope he's not wasted on the bench all year. Then again, given Wedge's fondness for mixing up the roster, I'm sure he'll see a decent amount of time.

Of our top twenty prospects, eight of them are pitchers, but we all know how fragile pitching talent can be. There's less of a learning curve there. I can only imagine that it's much easier to learn how to hit a curve ball than it is to learn how to throw one (a good one, at least).

Do I think we can weather losing C.C.? Of course. I wouldn't be much of a fan. And, like I said, we have more than a few arms in Buffalo that could bolster a rotation lead by Carmona. But it would tough.

I really don't see us giving Sabathia more than four years, though...

Dis-parity

Well, that experiment failed miserably, didn't it? As my friend Matt pointed out, three times a week was something of a pipe dream. I barely make it to work three times a week and they PAY ME.

Yet, for a guy who added an entry almost daily for a decent chunk of last season, three times a week seemed like cake.

A bit more realistically, I'm going to shoot for twice a week, at least until the season begins. Those two days will be Tuesday and Friday. I should be able to manage TWO blogs a week, right?

The recent Santana deal dovetails nicely into my proposed discussion on parity, or the illusion of parity, which is what we really have in baseball and what we will always have in baseball without salary caps. I've often stated that the most hated man in America would be the commissioner who takes office, instills a salary cap, watches as all the owners and players strike, brings in minor leaguers to replace them, and then holes up for five to ten years as time passes and the country accepts this new version of the game. He (or she) would be the most hated man in America, yes, but would eventually be the most loved.

That person would also be shot before they could ever put such a plan in action.

As both Peter Gammons and Buster Olney (two of the best baseball reporters in the game) have said in recent columns, the Santana deal underscores that the rich keep getting richer. While it's nice that there was some semblence of a trade involved, the bottom line is that the Mets signed Santana as a really expensive free agent, one which cost them players as well as money. Ultimately, the prospects were secondary as there are plenty of teams with better farm systems than the Mets. The money is what mattered.

That's what I find most unfortunate about such situations. I've heard plenty of Red Sox fans defend their team by siting trades they've made. "We traded for Josh Beckett," they say, "we didn't get him as a free agent." Yes, but the only reason you got him was because you were able to take on Mike Lowell's giant contract as well. It's like the Yankees claiming they put their team together through trades and pointing to getting A-rod from Texas. Sure, there's some amount of trade involved, but it only happens because of the money involved.

Which brings us back to the Santana deal. There were exactly three teams in the running and, not surprisingly, they were three of the richest teams in the league. At the time, if he had gone to the Red Sox it would have been all over but the crying. Now, though, you have to wonder if Boston would have pushed harder, what with Schilling supposedly out for at least half the year. Had the Yankees gotten him, I think the Tribe's chances of going to the post-season would have diminshed greatly, as the wild card spot would have been spoken for (even though I think we'll win the division again this year). Thankfully, he went to the NL...

...but how thankful can we really be?

As pretty much everyone has pointed out, Santana's giant deal has priced Sabathia right out of the Indians' hands. I'd love to think that a love of Cleveland will keep C.C. there, but I can't help but think about Jim "they'll have to tear this jersey off my back" Thome.

The issue isn't whether or not the Tribe CAN pay Sabathia that kind of money, it's if they should. I have little doubt that they could come up with $20 million a year to keep C.C. around. But SHOULD they? Should they spend 1/3 of their entire payroll on one guy, one guy who only plays every fifth day? What kind of bats could you get for that money? What kind of a closer could you get next year for part of that money? Is the investment worth the return?

People who call the Indians cheap for not forking out big cash for players are missing the point. It's not a matter of having the money or even being willing to spend it, it's a matter of comparison shopping.

Which means all eyes turn towards Buffalo in hopes of seeing one or more guys who can step in, guys some Tribe fans would have had us trade during the off season, guys who could be the only thing that keeps this team competitive beyond 2008. But more on that Tuesday.

My prediction? If C.C. does hit the open market, I think he'll go to San Francisco. It's close to home for him, he'd dominate in the NL, he'd get to bat, and San Francisco has shown they're willing to spend money for pitching. And, honestly, by 2009 Sabathia could turn that team into a legitimate competitor.