Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Standing Pat

In Anthony Castrovince's latest mailbag (you do read the best team blog online, right?), he mentions that Mark Shapiro more or less said that the Tribe blew it's wad of cash by signing Kerry Wood. What this means, basically, is that all remaining holes will be filled either internally, or through trades.

Since we can (and will) speculate until the cows come home about trades, let's work under the assumption that the Tribe is, officially, done, and that our line-up next year will be determined by Spring Training. Sound scary? Well, it's not quite as bad as you might think.

The addition of Kerry Wood (and Joe Smith) actually, on paper, gets this team to the post-season. Last season, the Tribe had 51 save opportunities and converted 31 of those, blowing 20. If Wood helps the Tribe pick up even 10 more saves (and realize that Borowski had just 6 last year) -- and you add that to our record last year -- we're 91-71, first place in the AL Central.

And what about our offense? The Tribe actually ended the year with the 6th most runs in the AL, although the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers were all ahead of us. But that was a year without Hafner (who, even if he was off in '07, still drove in over 100 runs) and basically without Martinez. With Shoppach getting extra at bats and the return of Martinez and (hopefully, but not neccessary for those numbers to remain the same) Hafner, the Tribe should be fine in the offense department. And, not to be mean, but the less at bats lost to Marte and Gutierrez will help, too.

So, then, what about fielding? The Tribe finished 9th in fielding. Moving Peralta to third will probably be a wash, but shouldn't drop our team score. Cabrera at short will most likely raise our score, and I would imagine any combination of Carroll/Barfield/Valbuena will hold even at second. The Garko/Martinez combo at first should stay the same and the Martinez/Shoppach combo will hold steady. Our outfield, while losing a great player in Gut, will still feature Choo (with a cannon of an arm), Sizemore ('nuff said) and Francisco. Should be pretty good.

Clearly, I'm willing to make a lot of assumptions here. Where, then, is the big concern? I think that's pretty obvious: our rotation.

There's no way we can count on Lee to repeat what he did this past year. That would just be insane. I have no idea which Fausto Carmona will show up. Anthony Reyes looked good in his few starts with us, but that assume he can a) stay healthy and b) maintain that production. Which leaves us with two open spots in the rotation, at least until mid-season, assuming (a big assumption) that Jake Westbrook returns and pitches like we all remember.

The upside is that we have a number of guys competing for those two spots, so we should, in theory, be able to get good people in there. The downside is that they're all really young. The list includes Aaron Laffey, the good Jeremy Sowers, the bad Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, Scott Lewis, the Zach Jackson for four good innings, and the Zach Jackson for one bad inning. That's five guys and two spots, which should make for some nice competition.

Given how the season ended, odds are that Lewis will make the cut. I would expect Laffey to win the other spot, unless Sowers has learned how to be consistent or Jackson has learned how to beat the one bad inning which always seems to ruin him.

Not unlike 2007, we're going to need a young arm to step up the way Fausto did if we're really going to make a run at it.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Off Season

Why do they call it the "Hot Stove?" Does anyone know?

Anyway, as things have progressed I've decided to revamp my ideas on what the Tribe should do during the off season. Here are my suggestions:

1) Sign Trevor Hoffman. Yes, I'm a big fan of Jensen Lewis, so much so that I even think he can step in and do the job if need be. But, I also see the advantage of having a guy like Hoffman in the interim, a guy who can not only save games for us, but also teach guys like Lewis and Adam Miller what it means to be a big league closer. And it's clear that he loves Cleveland and isn't looking for a long deal. Really, this should be the deal that all Cleveland fans are pushing for the most, as it's the one free agent signing that actually seems feasible. The Tribe needs to pull the trigger.

2) Trade Kelly Shoppach. You heard me. My reasons for this are many, but the main one is that Shoppach's trade value will never be higher than it is now. Why? Because he will never get the playing time he got last year unless he's starting somewhere else. I know that we can move Victor to 1st when we need to, but even if we go with some kind of rotating cast between catcher and first, Shoppach still won't play every day, which is ultimately what he did for almost the entire year in 2008.

And I know that people worry about dealing Shoppach when we don't know what to expect from Travis Hafner or even Ryan Garko. But you know what? We didn't have Martinez then, either, and there's no reason to believe Victor won't produce like he always will. Unlike Pronk or Garko, Victor has never lost his ability to produce when he's healthy. In other words, Shoppach's offensive pop will be filled by the guy whose spot he was filling.

There are so many teams out there looking for a young, power hitting catcher that the Tribe should be able to get a good deal, perhaps even some pitching (the Rangers were said to be talking to Boston about Justin Masterson, for crying out loud, and Shoppach is younger than anyone Texas has).

3) Make Adam Miller a reliever (already done!) and do whatever it takes to keep him healthy. Wrap your brain around this possibility in the 'pen: Hoffman, Lewis, Perez, Miller. I'd feel pretty good about the 8th and 9th with those four.

4) Deal for Brian Roberts. I know, I know, this is the rumor that won't die, but it makes all kinds of sense for both teams. The Orioles are not only in desperate need of pitching, they're in rebuilding mode (yet again). I don't know that a guy like Jeremy Sowers is a big enough prize to be the center piece of any such trade, so it might mean giving up someone like Laffey, Lewis, or Huff. I would also guess the addition of a guy like Barfield and/or one of our outfielders might be needed. But, in the end, the Tribe would kill two birds with one stone: we'd shore up our infield, we'd add a proven lead off hitter, and we'd solidify the middle of our order by moving Grady down to third. This deal would fix A LOT of our problems in one move.

Those are my four suggestions. I could go farther and include my various daydreams (like the Tribe dealing for Jake Peavy), but I'll try to stay as realistic as possible.

December is only a few days away -- the time for deals is soon...

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

What I Think/Hope We'll See

I'm sure I'm jumping the gun here, but I would like to point out that I called Jensen Lewis as future closer last year. I'm just sayin'.

After much deliberation, some thought as to the Tribe's money issues, and some consideration of the free agent market, I've decided that this will be our line-up next year (and I'm hoping beyond hope on some of it):

1) Grady Sizemore, CF: I'm willing to concede Grady batting lead off. Why? Because I think we'll have enough power in the rest of the line-up with Pronk and Martinez back. And Grady does tend to set the tone for games, particularly when he goes yard.

2) Ben Francisco, LF: I think Benny's done a good job of proving himself this year, particularly getting stuck in the three hole so often. He's hitting for average these days and he's got some untapped speed.

3) Travis Hafner, DH: If he's healthy, we're great. If not, well, I think we'll have some depth next year.

4) Victor Martinez, 1st: Yes, put him at first base. He can catch when Shoppach needs a day off and we can keep Garko on the bench as back-up catcher/first baseman.

5) Jhonny Peralta, 3rd: Yes, put him at third base. He clearly isn't the defensive short stop that we need, but he has a big bat, something we haven't had at the corners in some time.

6) Shin Soo Choo, RF: He's definitely turned it on lately. He's got a great arm and he's really hitting the ball.

7) Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: Yes, put him at short stop so the Cleveland fans can get the short stop they're used to having. He's starting to get more disciplined at the plate these days, which is why I have him batting seventh and not ninth.

8) Kelly Shoppach, C: Yes, put him behind the plate full time. He's got nice pop that will be good to have towards the bottom of the order, just like we used to have with Casey. His power will be nice behind Cabrera, too.

9) Josh Barfield, 2nd: I'm assuming a lot for Barfield here, not the least of which is that he'll start hitting the ball. He's got speed, though, so if he can just start getting on base more often he'd be a great threat, particularly with Grady hitting at the top of the order.

Bench:

Jamey Carroll
Ryan Garko
Franklin Gutierrez
David Dellucci (yes, I know)

Rotation:

Cliff Lee (hopefully as good as he's been this year)
Fausto Carmona (fully recovered)
Aaron Laffey
Adam Miller
Anthony Reyes

I think Laffey will be fine after some down time in Buffalo to end the season. Assuming Miller is healthy, he can be huge. I think Reyes will get the nod over Sowers, who has still been inconsistent. Zach Jackson's performance has been interesting. He and Sowers should provide some good depth for us.

David Huff is an interesting case. His ERA is under 3 and he's average a K per inning. He can be pretty dominant, but I have to wonder, given our needs, if he might be the flamethrower out of the bullpen that we've been looking for.

Keep in mind that I'm not counting on Jake Westbrook for anything, since he'll be coming back from surgery. But there's a chance we could see him in time for the post-season.

So my theoretical bullpen would be:

Jensen Lewis
Rafael Perez
David Huff
Rafael Betancourt (I know)
Masa Kobayashi (I know)
Unnamed free agent reliever
Unnamed free agent reliever

I don't think the Tribe will give up on Betancourt or Kobayashi given the money they've invested and, honestly, a good off season program could get them where they need to be.

I'm currently of the opinion that we should save the money we'd spend on a closer and use it to get two middle relievers. We need more bang for our buck and I have faith in Lewis.

That is the team that will win us a World Series.

No, really!

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Not drastic, per se

It's time for the Indians to quit being pansies.

Or, at least it's time for the decision makers to quit being pansies.

A few things that inform this statement:

1. Jhonny Peralta has been hitting like crazy lately.
2. Ryan Garko has not.
3. Neither has Andy Marte.
4. Kelly Shoppach, however, has also been hitting like crazy lately.
5. Asdrubal Cabrera could be an All-Star shortstop
6. Grady Sizemore will have 30+ home runs this year.

These things add up to the Tribe needing to just suck it up and make some changes next year.

Jhonny Peralta, who plays 3rd base in his winter league, needs to play 3rd base in his spring and summer league, too.

You match that move by making Victor Martinez the every day 1st baseman. He was originally an infielder, remember. And, look at that! Suddenly we have bats at the corners again.

Shoppach becomes the every day catcher and we've got some potential additional power in the line-up every day. Ryan Garko (assume he beats out Michael Aurbry or Jordan Brown) becomes the Brandon Inge of the team, backing up Martinez AND Shoppach (Garko is a converted catcher).

Asdrubal then moves in at short where he belongs and second is left up for grabs between Jamey Carroll and Josh Barfield.

In the outfield, I think we can count on Grady and Ben Francisco winning spots. Beyond that, you have Franklin Gutierrez, Shin Soo Choo, and Trevor Crowe battling for two remaing spots (assuming we release David Dellucci as we should).

And, of course, we move Grady down in the batting order, for the of god.

As for our rotation, we build around Lee and Carmona, of course, with hopes that Laffey works out his issues in Buffalo and Sowers' new turn around is for real. That would leave us with one open spot for either a free agent or perhaps someone like David Huff or Anthony Reyes, who will probably get called up in place of Ginter in the near future.

What about Adam Miller, you ask? Even working under the assumption that he's healthy, I think it's safe to say he's going to the bullpen. If we're goinly going to get a certain amount of innings out of him every year, better they happen over more games.

And what about that bullpen -- who will try to fix what went horribly wrong this year? I would say we'll see Perez, for sure, plus Kobayashi and I would imagine Miller and Meloan, who we got for Casey Blake. That's four. The next two spots will be a toss up between Betancourt, Lewis, Mujica, and Donally, who will probably get the call from Buffalo soon. I think Mastny is done for the Tribe. This would leave a spot open for a closer, a real closer, in the form of...

...Huston Street. You heard me. I think the Tribe will deal for him instead of forking over the gajillions of dollars it will take to sign one of the free agent closers that hit the market after this year. They'll probably send a AA pitcher and whichever outfielder doesn't make the cut.

Those are my guess, anyway.

Regardless, it's time for this team to change it up a bit.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

That was quick.

A four game winning streak before the break, a series win on the road after the break, and taking the first game of a three game series from the best team in baseball. Like Pavlov's dog, we all started salivating, visions of the triumphant return of Fausto Carmona, visions of continued great pitching performances from Paul Byrd, visions of the triumphant return of Victor Martinez, and, of course, the return to form of Rafael Perez. Oh, and don't forget that Masa struck out the side for the save. Have Tribe fans ever been so happy this season?

But a team that just swept the Red Sox isn't going to rollover and die. And 48 hours later, the Tribe had lost two straight, lost the series, and was now back to being 13 games back and 12 games under .500.

Ah, a cold bath of reality for all of us crazy Tribe fans.

So what do we do now? What should our next steps be?

Well, the most obvious is to deal Casey Blake, which seems to be in the works. As much as I've enjoyed watching Casey play lately, it's too little, too late for us. Let's try to get a few prospects in return.

Paul Byrd pitched great against the Angels, but he doesn't have many starts left before the trade deadline, so I don't know how much value he'll have on the market. You also have to wonder, if he's starting to turn a corner, would the Tribe think of bringing him back? I know he's been pretty bad so far this year, but if he can get back to where he was last year, he'd probably be a steal for a one year deal as a fifth starter. And it's pretty clear that we need the depth.

Then again, I suppose we could deal him and re-sign him again next year if he does turn it around.

Tom Mastny needs to be sent back down and I don't like his odds for next year.

The worst part of the Mastny meltdown was that our bullpen had seemed to turn a corner. Rafael Perez, Edward freaking Mujica, and Masa Kobayashi seemed to be working out great. But we quite obviously can't pitch them every day. But at least it's something to build on going forward.

As much as people are clamoring for the Tribe to spend a lot of money in the offseason, we all know it won't happen, not just because we're not that team, but also because we need bullpen help. Bullpen help is expensive. So if we're going to sign a reliever, chances are good we won't have the money to sign a bat. We're going to need our injured guys to come back strong.

I still like our chances for next year. I think we have a solid core. And the rest of the season should be interesting. We have these things to watch for:

1) Who will get traded and for whom?
2) Can Cliff Lee win the Cy Young?
3) Will Andy Marte step up?
4) Will Ryan Garko come back?
5) Will Aaron Laffey get back on track?
6) Will Fausto return to form?
7) Will Victor return to form?
8) Will Pronk return to form?
9) Is Mujica the real deal?
10) Can Masa close regularly?

There are more, of course, but those are the ones I'm watching for. I'd also like to see the Tribe at least hit .500 by the end of the year, but that might be asking a lot.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Why Baseball Is the Devil

A four game winning streak.

A decent outing from Jeremy Sowers.

Thirty-one runs in four games.

Great performance by the new 1-2-3 bullpen of Mujica, Perez, and Masa.

Ryan Garko hitting the ball.

Andy freaking Marte hitting the ball.

Cliff Lee named All-Star starter.

Grady Sizemore leading the AL in home runs.

Jhonny Peralta thriving in the 4 spot.

The possible return of Fausto Carmona.

Six more games against the White Sox this year, including the last weekend of the season.

You see what I'm getting at here, right?

The worst thing about baseball is that it makes you think insane things. It makes you sit around and day dream about an A-esque winning streak that would put the Indians back in contention, even though they currently sit 12 games under .500 and 13 games out of first place. And yet I look at that and I think "well, that's only 7 games they'd have to make up if they sweep the White Sox both times they play them." GAH!

Complain all you want, but injuries really have been the worst thing that happened to this team this year. It informs every other problem. Adam Miller would be in the bullpen by now if he were healthy, because they would need him there and they wouldn't need him in the rotation that was made up of Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Lee, and Laffey, after they traded away Paul Byrd for prospects. David Dellucci would have followed Jason Michaels out the door with the arrival of Shin-Soo Choo because Franklin Gutierrez wouldn't have spent the first half of the season trying to swing through every pitch. Ryan Garko would be hitting like crazy because he wouldn't be doing that, either, both trying to make up for the loss of power because Pronk and Victor are no longer around.

Seriously, just imagine what this season would have been like without the injuries. Just imagine...

The Tribe has 13 games left in July. Let's say they can pick up 2 or 3 games in that span. And then they get Carmona back. Oh, and guess who comes back in the beginning of August? Victor Martinez, that's who.

And in theory we should have Pronk back by the beginning of September.

Crazy talk? Yep. But that's exactly what baseball will do to you.

Until we lose four straight when the season starts up again.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Here We Are Again

Ah, rebuilding, it seems like only yesterday...

Buster Olney had a column up on ESPN.com the other day making the case that the Tribe does not, in fact, have to rebuild completely, simply retool or "reload" as the saying goes these days. The assumption, of course, is that we'll have a core of players to build around, something we didn't have a few years back (or, we had them, they just weren't really that good yet).

It would seem that the core he's looking at would be Grady Sizemore and a healthy Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. It's hard to see the forest from the trees when your "core" consists of three guys, two of whom are currently on the DL. But I understand the point.

One would have to assume that Asdrubal Cabrera is a part of that core, even if he is in Buffalo at the moment. I think he's proven himself down there, although is AVG has leveled off at the .320 range.

Oh, and a note on Cabrera. I've long maintained that he's hitting better in Buffalo because he has less pressure on him, probably a bogus belief considering how well he performed for the Tribe down the stretch last year. What HAS been different in Buffalo as opposed to Cleveland are these two things: he's playing short stop every day, and he's BATTING LEAD OFF.

You heard me.

Mull that one over. Cabrera is hitting lead off and doing a pretty good job of it.

Grady Sizemore leads the LEAGUE in homers.

The writing is on the wall, Wedge.

You also have to assume that at least ONE of our young outfielders will pan out, be it Ben Francisco or Shin Soo Choo. I'd like to see both of them do well, honestly, but we really do need more runs produced from those spots.

I shake my head at the bullpen. I have no idea what we're going to do there.

Our strength could, again, be our rotation. We'll go 1-3 with Carmona, Lee, and Laffey. If I have to sacrifice live chickens myself to make it happen, Adam Miller will be healthy and we'll finally see all that potential. That would leave us with Sowers in the #5 spot, a prospect that's only barely tolerable the way he's been throwing these days. Still, that's a pretty impressive rotation.

Now, for those complaining about the Sabathia trade along the lines that we didn't get enough in return, let's keep a few things in mind:

1) The Tribe was desperate to move him. We're out of the running, which means the most we have to look forward to at the end of the year is waving good-bye and getting two draft picks, neither of which would be very high in the first round.

2) No team in the Majors was going to give up Major League ready talent for a rental. And that's exactly what CC is.

3) We need to stock up our farm system again. We've gone to the well the last two years and it's time to keep things moving. We're a mid-market team -- we have to thrive on that.

As for what we got specifically, some people are complaining that our big catch, Matt LaPorta, is only hitting .288 (with 20 homers) in AA (in his first year, mind you, which means he's moved up the ranks pretty quickly already).

You think that's bad, at least we didn't take a guy hitting .258 with NO home runs in TWO seasons in advance single A! That would have been a horrible deal, particularly if we traded an ace to get him.

Oh, wait, we already got a guy like that for an ace. We got him for Bartolo Colon. His name is Grady Sizemore.

The lesson? Wait and see, people. Grady looked like chopped liver on paper when we made that trade.

I'd say he's doing pretty well these days.