Thursday, July 24, 2008

That was quick.

A four game winning streak before the break, a series win on the road after the break, and taking the first game of a three game series from the best team in baseball. Like Pavlov's dog, we all started salivating, visions of the triumphant return of Fausto Carmona, visions of continued great pitching performances from Paul Byrd, visions of the triumphant return of Victor Martinez, and, of course, the return to form of Rafael Perez. Oh, and don't forget that Masa struck out the side for the save. Have Tribe fans ever been so happy this season?

But a team that just swept the Red Sox isn't going to rollover and die. And 48 hours later, the Tribe had lost two straight, lost the series, and was now back to being 13 games back and 12 games under .500.

Ah, a cold bath of reality for all of us crazy Tribe fans.

So what do we do now? What should our next steps be?

Well, the most obvious is to deal Casey Blake, which seems to be in the works. As much as I've enjoyed watching Casey play lately, it's too little, too late for us. Let's try to get a few prospects in return.

Paul Byrd pitched great against the Angels, but he doesn't have many starts left before the trade deadline, so I don't know how much value he'll have on the market. You also have to wonder, if he's starting to turn a corner, would the Tribe think of bringing him back? I know he's been pretty bad so far this year, but if he can get back to where he was last year, he'd probably be a steal for a one year deal as a fifth starter. And it's pretty clear that we need the depth.

Then again, I suppose we could deal him and re-sign him again next year if he does turn it around.

Tom Mastny needs to be sent back down and I don't like his odds for next year.

The worst part of the Mastny meltdown was that our bullpen had seemed to turn a corner. Rafael Perez, Edward freaking Mujica, and Masa Kobayashi seemed to be working out great. But we quite obviously can't pitch them every day. But at least it's something to build on going forward.

As much as people are clamoring for the Tribe to spend a lot of money in the offseason, we all know it won't happen, not just because we're not that team, but also because we need bullpen help. Bullpen help is expensive. So if we're going to sign a reliever, chances are good we won't have the money to sign a bat. We're going to need our injured guys to come back strong.

I still like our chances for next year. I think we have a solid core. And the rest of the season should be interesting. We have these things to watch for:

1) Who will get traded and for whom?
2) Can Cliff Lee win the Cy Young?
3) Will Andy Marte step up?
4) Will Ryan Garko come back?
5) Will Aaron Laffey get back on track?
6) Will Fausto return to form?
7) Will Victor return to form?
8) Will Pronk return to form?
9) Is Mujica the real deal?
10) Can Masa close regularly?

There are more, of course, but those are the ones I'm watching for. I'd also like to see the Tribe at least hit .500 by the end of the year, but that might be asking a lot.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Why Baseball Is the Devil

A four game winning streak.

A decent outing from Jeremy Sowers.

Thirty-one runs in four games.

Great performance by the new 1-2-3 bullpen of Mujica, Perez, and Masa.

Ryan Garko hitting the ball.

Andy freaking Marte hitting the ball.

Cliff Lee named All-Star starter.

Grady Sizemore leading the AL in home runs.

Jhonny Peralta thriving in the 4 spot.

The possible return of Fausto Carmona.

Six more games against the White Sox this year, including the last weekend of the season.

You see what I'm getting at here, right?

The worst thing about baseball is that it makes you think insane things. It makes you sit around and day dream about an A-esque winning streak that would put the Indians back in contention, even though they currently sit 12 games under .500 and 13 games out of first place. And yet I look at that and I think "well, that's only 7 games they'd have to make up if they sweep the White Sox both times they play them." GAH!

Complain all you want, but injuries really have been the worst thing that happened to this team this year. It informs every other problem. Adam Miller would be in the bullpen by now if he were healthy, because they would need him there and they wouldn't need him in the rotation that was made up of Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Lee, and Laffey, after they traded away Paul Byrd for prospects. David Dellucci would have followed Jason Michaels out the door with the arrival of Shin-Soo Choo because Franklin Gutierrez wouldn't have spent the first half of the season trying to swing through every pitch. Ryan Garko would be hitting like crazy because he wouldn't be doing that, either, both trying to make up for the loss of power because Pronk and Victor are no longer around.

Seriously, just imagine what this season would have been like without the injuries. Just imagine...

The Tribe has 13 games left in July. Let's say they can pick up 2 or 3 games in that span. And then they get Carmona back. Oh, and guess who comes back in the beginning of August? Victor Martinez, that's who.

And in theory we should have Pronk back by the beginning of September.

Crazy talk? Yep. But that's exactly what baseball will do to you.

Until we lose four straight when the season starts up again.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Here We Are Again

Ah, rebuilding, it seems like only yesterday...

Buster Olney had a column up on ESPN.com the other day making the case that the Tribe does not, in fact, have to rebuild completely, simply retool or "reload" as the saying goes these days. The assumption, of course, is that we'll have a core of players to build around, something we didn't have a few years back (or, we had them, they just weren't really that good yet).

It would seem that the core he's looking at would be Grady Sizemore and a healthy Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. It's hard to see the forest from the trees when your "core" consists of three guys, two of whom are currently on the DL. But I understand the point.

One would have to assume that Asdrubal Cabrera is a part of that core, even if he is in Buffalo at the moment. I think he's proven himself down there, although is AVG has leveled off at the .320 range.

Oh, and a note on Cabrera. I've long maintained that he's hitting better in Buffalo because he has less pressure on him, probably a bogus belief considering how well he performed for the Tribe down the stretch last year. What HAS been different in Buffalo as opposed to Cleveland are these two things: he's playing short stop every day, and he's BATTING LEAD OFF.

You heard me.

Mull that one over. Cabrera is hitting lead off and doing a pretty good job of it.

Grady Sizemore leads the LEAGUE in homers.

The writing is on the wall, Wedge.

You also have to assume that at least ONE of our young outfielders will pan out, be it Ben Francisco or Shin Soo Choo. I'd like to see both of them do well, honestly, but we really do need more runs produced from those spots.

I shake my head at the bullpen. I have no idea what we're going to do there.

Our strength could, again, be our rotation. We'll go 1-3 with Carmona, Lee, and Laffey. If I have to sacrifice live chickens myself to make it happen, Adam Miller will be healthy and we'll finally see all that potential. That would leave us with Sowers in the #5 spot, a prospect that's only barely tolerable the way he's been throwing these days. Still, that's a pretty impressive rotation.

Now, for those complaining about the Sabathia trade along the lines that we didn't get enough in return, let's keep a few things in mind:

1) The Tribe was desperate to move him. We're out of the running, which means the most we have to look forward to at the end of the year is waving good-bye and getting two draft picks, neither of which would be very high in the first round.

2) No team in the Majors was going to give up Major League ready talent for a rental. And that's exactly what CC is.

3) We need to stock up our farm system again. We've gone to the well the last two years and it's time to keep things moving. We're a mid-market team -- we have to thrive on that.

As for what we got specifically, some people are complaining that our big catch, Matt LaPorta, is only hitting .288 (with 20 homers) in AA (in his first year, mind you, which means he's moved up the ranks pretty quickly already).

You think that's bad, at least we didn't take a guy hitting .258 with NO home runs in TWO seasons in advance single A! That would have been a horrible deal, particularly if we traded an ace to get him.

Oh, wait, we already got a guy like that for an ace. We got him for Bartolo Colon. His name is Grady Sizemore.

The lesson? Wait and see, people. Grady looked like chopped liver on paper when we made that trade.

I'd say he's doing pretty well these days.

Monday, June 30, 2008

Indians @ White Sox, 6/30/08

Since I'm such a prolific blogger, I'm now on a once a week schedule with this blog, so the game of the day title will usually be irrelevant.

But today's game is important (and we're currently losing 3-1) because it is most likely the beginning of the end. Even if the Tribe were to sweep the White Sox, they'd still be 6.5 games back with two other teams between them and Chicago. It would take a multi-game win streak to turn this ship around and we haven't been able to do that all year.

Which means it's time to look at who's expendable. I offer you, gentle reader, this list:

Sabathia
Sowers
Byrd
Borowski
Gutierrez
Dellucci
Marte
Blake
Peralta
Garko
Shoppach

Barfield's probably only safe because he's on the DL.

Yes, I think even Garko and Shoppach are on the line. With Michael Aubrey and Jordan Brown heating up in Buffalo, I think Garko's in a dangerous position. And while it would be a really bold move to trade Shoppach, there's no denying that he has a great deal of value, as many teams would love him as their every day catcher.

I will say this much: there's a certain freedom that comes with the idea that we can make deals for next year. We have so many holes to fill, that starting now can only help.

Let's look at the positives, though -- the best case scenarios, if you will.

Cabrera has been hitting like crazy in Buffalo, so hopefully that's something that will stick with him when he eventually gets recalled.

It's clear that Victor and Pronk had legitimate reasons for their performances this year (and before anyone starts talking about Pronk last year, remember that the guy still had 100 RBI). Let's say their stints on the DL get them back in prime form.

It's pretty clear that Choo and Francisco could be big time players given regular playing time to get experience, which they should get from here on out.

Grady will be Grady.

That's a good start right there.

Our bullpen will be another issue. That could be where we spend the most of our money.

As for the rotation, we'll have to go get at least one free agent, depending upon how much dealing we do. As of right now we'd have Carmona, Lee, Laffey, and Sowers, with (in theory) Miller stepping in, assuming (big assumption) he's healthy. David Huff would also be in the mix, I think, after spending the rest of this season in Buffalo. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'll be completely happy with a rotation built around Carmona, Lee, and Laffey.

Here's a good way to look at our future: with Casey officially gone next year, we can go out and sign a big bat at third. Add that to a healthy Pronk and Victor and suddenly we have an offense again.

Overly optimistic? Sure, but at this point that's all we have.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Dodger Blew

I went to the Tribe game yesterday, braving the sweltering Southern California heat to witness a one run loss. Fortunately, our field level seats (which were amazing) were just under the overhang, so we stayed out of the sun.

Living in Los Angeles, I watch a lot of Dodgers games. I'm a sucker for baseball and HD TV. And I've never really had an issue with the Dodgers or their fans. I'm re-thinking that now.

A few years ago, the Dodgers FINALLY returned to the post-season. They lost in the division series to the Cardinals, 3-1. After they were eliminated (in Los Angeles), they came out and shook hands with the opposing team, a sight you don't normally see in the majors. It was very...lovey dovey.

It was odd, to say the least, but I thought nothing more of it.

Until yesterday.

Some context: The Tribe had one the first two games of this three game series. They were going for the sweep yesterday, while the Dodgers were looking to prevent being swept at home. These two teams haven't met up since 2003 in a series in Cleveland, so there's no much in the way of rivalry or even familiarity.

And yet yesterday I watched (and listened) as Dodger fans would yell things like "You suck, Garko!" whenever Ryan Garko would come to the plate. They would repeat that witty banter for more or less every Indians' batter, even going so far as to yell "good-bye" to any player who struck out.

I thought that was really strange. I mean, it wasn't like we were the Giants or something. Why would they possibly have such animosity towards the Indians? Surely this wasn't holdover frustration from the 1920 World Series when they were known as the Brooklyn Robins.

When the game ended, it got worse. As god as my witness, had I not been aware of the situation I would have thought the Dodgers had just won the pennant. For that matter, Dodger fans started shooing Tribe fans out of their stadium with an arrogance that's second only to Yankee fans.

I was expecting happiness and relief at avoiding a sweep. I didn't expect jubilation and hubris.

While initially I got pretty defensive about this (I believe I pointed out that we'd won the series to more than a few Dodger fans), as time passed I began to realize just how sad it was. This is an organization that should be on par with the Yankees; they should be the West Coast equivalent of the Evil Empire. They should compete for their division every year and win it more often than not.

Famous Dodgers color man Vin Skully once commented (and there was context to this) that he thought it might be interesting if MLB went back to 8 teams in each league. There's no way you could widdle the National League down to 8 teams and NOT keep the Dodgers. They're a storied organization.

But all they have is their past. Their present has been sad and their future doesn't appear to be any brighter.

Maybe shaking hands after a sorry showing in the NLDS was as good as it gets for them these days. Maybe they have to take what they can get and hold on to it with both hands...or one, rather, as the other will be shaking hands with the team that just eliminated them.

So perhaps I'll look past the sad, sorry excuse for fans I met yesterday in Chavez Ravine. Because it was unbearable hot and I can't imagine they were very happy...and probably haven't been for a long time.

Friday, June 20, 2008

C.C.

I think the writing is on the wall. The baseball gods have spoken: It's time to trade C.C.

Too many things have fallen into place to let me believe keeping C.C. Sabathia is our best move. Let's look at them all:

1. C.C. doesn't re-sign before the season begins. Evidently, there's still distance between what the Tribe offered and what he wants.

2. The Tribe is bad. We just got swept by the Rockies, we're now in fourth place, and we're 8.5 games out of first place.

3. Our DL is well populated. Every time I think this team might be able to get it together, I remember that we're out 40% of our starting rotation and 44% of our starting line-up.

4. Aces are dropping like flies. The Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers have all lost their aces in the last TEN DAYS. The Red Sox also lost their depth, with Colon going on the DL and Schilling officially lost for the year. Like I said, all of this news came within the last week and a half. That HAS to be a sign.

Right there we have reasons for the Tribe to deal C.C. and four big market teams who could afford him.

I'll admit: I'll get choked up when he goes. C.C. has been a fixture in the rebuilding process for this team. He has meant nearly as much as Grady Sizemore has with regards to the team's image. It really won't be the same without him.

But we won't re-sign him and we're not going to compete now, so we need to get what we can.

I think the Cubs are the most likely spot for him to go. They are DESPERATE for a championship and seem willing to pay any price to get one. C.C. also handles the stick pretty well, so I think he'd be great in the NL. I'm not so sure about the Dodgers, though, simply because they have way more problems than just the loss of their ace.

I can't see the Red Sox really putting much into it considering how well they've done without Schilling and Colon and considering they'll have a chance to get C.C. on the free agent market next year. And I can't see the Tribe sending C.C. to New York unless they get someone like Phillip Hughes in a package with other prospects, and the Yankees seem unwilling to move him.

So let's hope he goes to the Cubs and that the Cubs have a few relievers in their system.

Because, honestly, I like the core of what we'd come back with next year. I'll take a rotation built around Carmona, Lee, and Laffey. I'll take an offense built around Sizemore, Francisco, Choo, and Garko. If we can get Pronk and Victor back to form next year, then that's a pretty good looking line-up. I have no idea what we do about the rest of our infield, but it's a start.

But, yeah, I think it's time to pull the trigger. Hey, you never know, maybe we'll just leave C.C. with the Dodgers after this weekend.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Fun and Games

You know, a few weeks ago this team was damn near unwatchable.

And it's not just the fact that they're actually winning more often than they lose lately. It's the fact that we now have reasons to watch, reasons like Ben Francisco, Shin Soo Choo, and the unreal Jamey Carroll.

I can't imagine that any or all of them will continue to hit like they have, but it's still entertaining to watch. There's just something about seeing young guys take advantage of getting the call, or seeing a lifelong utility guy get the shot at a starting gig that makes you want to watch every at bat of every game.

So thank god for those guys.

In other news, the worlds "Yankees" and "Indians" have been in the news a lot lately following the injury to Chien-Ming Wang. The Yankees are clearly desperate for starting pitching now, having lost their ace until September. The whole world is wondering if New York will make an offer for C.C. Sabathia, as if they could just ask and get him.

This puts Shapiro in something of a rough spot. If he trades Sabathia, it's a pretty clear sign that we're not going to complete this year, no matter how good Carmona, Lee, and Laffey might be at any given moment. C.C. is our ace and has pitched like it for the last month plus. Considering the fact that the Indians are going to have to something like over .600 the rest of the season to come anywhere close to the record they had last year means we need every quality start we can get.

On the other hand, I don't think anyone has much faith in Sabathia returning to the Tribe after this year. So the idea of getting guys who are further along than two draft picks would be nice -- but would the Yankees even have anything like that to offer?

In the end, I have to believe it's going to come down to a few factors:

1) How does the Tribe do in the next week? If we can pick up another game in the next week, you have to think we'll stay pat, considering we have Fausto coming up at the end of the month, Pronk a few weeks off, and Victor in August, hopefully.

2) What does New York have to offer? Most sports journalists seem to think that there's no way the Tribe will take any deal that doesn't include Philip Hughes (and others, of course), a guy most sports journalists also think the Yankees won't move. While I have my reservations about Hughes, I think the Indians could help him reach is potential, particularly if he goes to Buffalo first (which he would, I imagine, if Jeremy Sowers manages to hold on to the open spot in Cleveland after C.C. leaves).

3) What does C.C. want? You have to figure that, at some point, Shapiro is just going to have to sit down with Sabathia and his agent and say "look, I have to do what's best for the organization. Keeping you would be ideal, but if we can't afford to re-sign you, then I need to get something back in return to keep this team afloat."

I can't see the Yankees parting with much major league ready talent just for a possible half season rental in the form of Sabathia.

I'm torn, honestly. Every time I see the big man pitch, I think "we HAVE to re-sign him -- he means to much to this team." But when I think about it logically, I just don't see how we can tie up that much money in one player, particularly one who only plays every fifth game.

This would all be a lot easier if Adam Miller could stay healthy.