Well, here we are, 25 games into the season, 5 games out of first place at 9-16. I would call this season a bust if it weren't for the fact that our division is so tightly packed. But time is running out and I think it's time for some drastic moves.
So here, without further ado, are Kyle's Drastic Move Suggestions:
1) Call up David Huff for the bullpen. Huff is currently 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA as a starter in Columbus. I know that the Tribe would like to keep him as a starter. But he's also got 23 K's in 28 innings and a heck of an arm. I say we give him a shot in the 'pen and return him to the rotation next year -- or hopefully later this year, as Lewis and Perez get themselves figured out. He's a lefty, though, so we'd still be missing a right handed set up man.
2) Play Ryan Garko every day. With the DH open, we can still get Victor into the line-up when Shoppach is catching. Garko has the second highest AVG on the team with runners in scoring position. Considering how often Wedge laments our poor at bats in those situations, why ISN'T Garko in the line-up every day? He's also hitting .293 with limited ABs.
3) While the sample size for both of them is pretty small, Asdrubal Cabrera's on base percentage is .435, second only to Victor Martinez. Grady Sizemore's is 100 points lower. On the flipside, though, Grady is currently tied for 1st in RBI. AC currently has 4 stolen bases to Grady's 5. I think you can see where I'm going with this. While I'd love to wait and make sure that Cabrera's numbers are for real, it's time to get drastic. Let's move him to the lead off spot and move Grady down in the order.
4) Cabrera, Garko, DeRosa, and Martinez need to play every day. They're the only ones hitting over .260 with RISP. As this has been one of our biggest problems, there's no reason any of them should ever sit.
5) Get LaPorta and Valbuena in two out of every three games. Why not?
BONUS SUPER CRAZY, IRRATIONALLY DRASTIC IDEA
6) Move Aaron Laffey to the bullpen and call up Jeremy Sowers, who's been very good in Columbus. Sure, that sounds insane, considering how much our rotation improved when Laffey came up, but bare with me. Laffey does something that no one in our bullpen appears able to do: get double play balls. Imagine being able to bring someone in to get a double play ball and having him actually do it. That would be invaluable. Granted, this move would also be dependent upon Pavano continuing to pitch well and actually turning into a #3 guy, not to mention the good Jeremy Sowers sticking around for a while (at least until Scott Lewis is healthy).
Like I said, drastic times call for drastic measures and I, for one, would have no problems with any of these moves. At this point, I'd take any changes they'd be willing to make.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
Why I'm Not Panicking Yet
Yes, perhaps the Tribe should consider bringing in the priest from "The Natural." Although maybe it's not losing that's he disease, so much as bad pitching.
So we're 0-4 and we've given up more than forty runs in just four games. Our best starter has an ERA of 8.31 and didn't even go five innings. Shouldn't I be really concerned?
Well, I am, mostly because I enjoy watching baseball and I'd actually like to watch games that matter come last summer/early fall. But I'm not going over board just yet, and here's why:
Our pitching can't really be this bad. No, really. I mean, Rafael Perez gave up five runs tonight -- Rafael Perez, people! The man never gives up runs! It's unnatural for him, and it's been unnatural for over two years now. This isn't like Cliff Lee or Fausto Carmona -- good one year, bad the next and vice versa -- this is a guy who was pretty much the only reliever we could count on for much of last year (we even had to send Jensen Lewis down to AAA at one point, remember). So there's obviously something going on here.
As I said, bad pitching seems to be contagious.
The other thing that keeps me from freaking out entirely is our division. The Central doesn't really have any one team that stands out from the rest. Ideally, this means we'll have something of a log jam. If the Tribe can just stay with the pack to mid-season, we're still in it. For one, there's the possibility of a deal, which is something that really could happen given how much young talent we have and how many teams will be looking to deal away experienced pitching when they realize they have no chance at making the post-season (just let me have my little Jake Peavy dream, thank you). Almost as good as a trade is the fact that we'll get Jake Westbrook back. While not flashy, Westbrook has generally defined "solid," which is exactly what the Tribe needs. We need someone reliable, because what we have no is a bunch of guys who are erratic. Westbrook's made great progress in his rehab, so hopefully the Tribe can hold him back longer than they really need to just to make sure he's up to speed.
In the meantime, what are the chances that all four of our youngsters (Lewis, Huff, Laffey, and Sowers) bomb? At least one of them is going to step up. Even Cleveland luck isn't that bad.
Our bullpen IS good. The numbers don't lie. We'll get there.
And let's not forget about the good we've seen tonight -- namely, Travis Hafner. He's now hitting .313 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI. Hey, he's on a pace to hit 81 home runs! And drive in 162! Our offense should be fine, assuming we can get the on-base guys going (DeRosa, Cabrera, and the rather painful Francisco).
So I'm not panicking just yet.
But I will say this: tomorrow is a big game for Cliff Lee. Not only does he need to prove that his first start was a fluke, he needs to be a stopper. The Tribe needs a starter to end this downward spiral and if Cliff wants to be our ace, he needs to step up and do it. It actually might be more important for Cliff to pitch well tomorrow than it is for us to win.
Couple that with a good start from the only "clean" starter on Sunday, and we might have something.
Let's hope.
So we're 0-4 and we've given up more than forty runs in just four games. Our best starter has an ERA of 8.31 and didn't even go five innings. Shouldn't I be really concerned?
Well, I am, mostly because I enjoy watching baseball and I'd actually like to watch games that matter come last summer/early fall. But I'm not going over board just yet, and here's why:
Our pitching can't really be this bad. No, really. I mean, Rafael Perez gave up five runs tonight -- Rafael Perez, people! The man never gives up runs! It's unnatural for him, and it's been unnatural for over two years now. This isn't like Cliff Lee or Fausto Carmona -- good one year, bad the next and vice versa -- this is a guy who was pretty much the only reliever we could count on for much of last year (we even had to send Jensen Lewis down to AAA at one point, remember). So there's obviously something going on here.
As I said, bad pitching seems to be contagious.
The other thing that keeps me from freaking out entirely is our division. The Central doesn't really have any one team that stands out from the rest. Ideally, this means we'll have something of a log jam. If the Tribe can just stay with the pack to mid-season, we're still in it. For one, there's the possibility of a deal, which is something that really could happen given how much young talent we have and how many teams will be looking to deal away experienced pitching when they realize they have no chance at making the post-season (just let me have my little Jake Peavy dream, thank you). Almost as good as a trade is the fact that we'll get Jake Westbrook back. While not flashy, Westbrook has generally defined "solid," which is exactly what the Tribe needs. We need someone reliable, because what we have no is a bunch of guys who are erratic. Westbrook's made great progress in his rehab, so hopefully the Tribe can hold him back longer than they really need to just to make sure he's up to speed.
In the meantime, what are the chances that all four of our youngsters (Lewis, Huff, Laffey, and Sowers) bomb? At least one of them is going to step up. Even Cleveland luck isn't that bad.
Our bullpen IS good. The numbers don't lie. We'll get there.
And let's not forget about the good we've seen tonight -- namely, Travis Hafner. He's now hitting .313 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI. Hey, he's on a pace to hit 81 home runs! And drive in 162! Our offense should be fine, assuming we can get the on-base guys going (DeRosa, Cabrera, and the rather painful Francisco).
So I'm not panicking just yet.
But I will say this: tomorrow is a big game for Cliff Lee. Not only does he need to prove that his first start was a fluke, he needs to be a stopper. The Tribe needs a starter to end this downward spiral and if Cliff wants to be our ace, he needs to step up and do it. It actually might be more important for Cliff to pitch well tomorrow than it is for us to win.
Couple that with a good start from the only "clean" starter on Sunday, and we might have something.
Let's hope.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Opening Day Is Here!
Yes, it's finally that time of year again -- time to get down to business and talk about the season to come. As always, I'll give my completely biased, most likely wrong view on how the Tribe will do this year. I should point out, though, that I'm .500 in my AL Central predictions, having picked the Tribe both times in the last two seasons.
Shockingly enough, I'm sticking with a trend and picking the Indians to win the Central again. Why? One very simple reason: depth (which, it should be noted, was the same reason I gave going into the '07 season). We have more position player and pitching depth than any other team in the division. We're going to need some people to step up, but I think that will make the difference.
Here's our opening day line-up:
1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. 1B Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. C Kelly Shoppach
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
We know what we'll get from Grady, more or less. The case that he should move down in the order is a valid one that's more or less defeated by the fact that a) we don't have another viable lead off hitter and b) we have plenty of power further down the order.
Mark DeRosa is going to be huge for us this year, particularly since we haven't gotten consistent production from the #2 spot since the second half of '07 when AC first came up. Victor Martinez has had a good spring and will only get better going forward. Obviously, there are concerns about Pronk, but he's shown a lot of improvement in the last week and a half. I have no problems with throwing him in the fire right off the bat. He's either going to hit or he won't, so why not? Besides, it keeps the order balanced and, as many people have pointed out, he's only the clean-up hitter if everyone ahead of him gets on base in the first inning. After that it really doesn't matter, and it certainly doesn't matter nearly as much as having balance.
Peralta is clearly our ace in the hole on offense and I have a feeling that more and more teams are going to realize that this year. The upside there is that they'll have to pitch to Choo, who has clearly had problems because of the WBC, but we've seen glimmers of what he's capable of. We also know what he can do when he gets consistent time in, so I have confidence in him (and Trevor Crowe, for that matter, if it comes to that).
The Kelly Shoppach/Ryan Garko #7 spot will be interesting to watch, as they're very similar types of hitters. As long as they can both remember that they don't have to hit for the fences every time out (and having six guys ahead of them who can all hit it out helps), they should really produce. Ben Francisco had a nice spring and it would appear that he's developing into the consistent player we all wondered if he could be. Asdrubal Cabrera has also had a nice spring, particularly compared to last year, and I think he lives and dies by his confidence level.
As for our bench, we have:
Garko/Shoppach (see above)
Josh Barfield
Trevor Crowe
Jamey Carroll
As much as I'd rather Crowe get every day ABs in Columbus, you do have to like the speed off the bench we have now. I know the Tribe can't really afford to eat $4 million, but it's nice seeing Crowe get a shot in the majors. And if Jamey Carroll does what he did last year, we should have one of the best benches in baseball.
Let's also not look over the guys we have waiting in the wings, like Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, the aforementiond Trevor Crowe (when Dellucci comes off the DL), Michael Aubrey (who had a great spring), and even Wes Hodges, who made a lot of people take notice in spring training.
As we move to the pitching, let's start with the good and move to the more questionable. Here's our bullpen:
Masa Kobayashi
Rafael Betancourt
Zach Jackson
Joe Smith
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis
Kerry Wood
You may know those last four guys on the list as part of the Guys With Really Low Spring ERAs club. All four dominated during the spring, with Wood only giving up runs in his last appearance. As for our middle relief, there are some serious question marks. Jackson won his job because he's a converted starter and can go multiple innings if needed, but he wasn't exactly impressive in spring training. He's also a lefty. But, his fatal flaw in the past has been that one big inning, so perhaps a middle relief role will get him in and out before that inning pops up.
Rafael Betancourt has been about as inconsistent as he was last year, periodically flashing glimpses of the '07 Betancourt, then reverting to the '08 version. I have no idea what we'll get out of him. Masa Kobayashi has been more or less awful all spring, and most Tribe fans are taking guesses at when he'll be sent down, most likely to be replaced by Vinnie Chulk, who had a great spring.
Regardless, the back end of our bullpen looks really, really impressive.
Now for the biggest question mark we have, our starting rotation:
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes
I have no idea what to expect from Lee, given what he did last year as compared to what he did the year before and what he did in spring training. My best guess would be something between '05 (18-5, 3.79 ERA) and '06 (14-11, 4.40 ERA). I would guess 17 wins and an ERA around 3.50, which I'd be perfectly happy with, even it is a step down from last season.
Fausto Carmona, on the other hand, could be in a position to dominate. If the Tribe has a Cy Young candidate in the rotation this year, I think it's Fausto. He had a great spring and really seems to be returning to his '07 form. I think, by the end of the year, he'll be our ace.
Carl Pavano has gotten better in each of his spring starts. I don't expect him to go much past five innings most games, but I think he'll keep us in the game. I'm thinking something similar to the numbers I gave for Lee above, perhaps fewer wins.
Scott Lewis is a real question mark. He's struggle a great deal since winning a spot on the line-up and he's been giving up a lot of long balls. I'd hazard a guess, but I really have no idea. I'm not too concerned about it, though, as we have a number of guys who could step in for him.
Anthony Reyes had all of one bad outing this spring. I would expect him to pick up where he left off last season. I think he could actually be better than Pavano and get serious consideration as comeback player of the year, right behind Fausto. I do think Wedge will limit his innings, though.
And let's not forget that we should get Jake Westbrook back after the break (earlier, in fact, but I'd be shocked if they didn't hold him out for a while just to be safe). Jake could be the mid-season trade this team needs, really, which is huge. Let's not forget how he was throwing the ball last year before got hurt. He was really dominating, but getting no run support. If he can return to form, slotting him in as the #3 guy would be gold.
Of course we can also look at David Huff, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers, three guys who could show up at any point in the season. While none of them had the best springs, I think starting the season in Columbus will give them all the time they need to show they can take the next step.
So there you go -- the 2009 Clevelan Indians. I'm picking them to win the Central. Beyond that, I'm not saying, as just thinking about it makes me anxious.
As for the rest of baseball, here are my picks:
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Mets
Shockingly enough, I'm sticking with a trend and picking the Indians to win the Central again. Why? One very simple reason: depth (which, it should be noted, was the same reason I gave going into the '07 season). We have more position player and pitching depth than any other team in the division. We're going to need some people to step up, but I think that will make the difference.
Here's our opening day line-up:
1. CF Grady Sizemore
2. 3B Mark DeRosa
3. 1B Victor Martinez
4. DH Travis Hafner
5. SS Jhonny Peralta
6. RF Shin-Soo Choo
7. C Kelly Shoppach
8. LF Ben Francisco
9. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera
We know what we'll get from Grady, more or less. The case that he should move down in the order is a valid one that's more or less defeated by the fact that a) we don't have another viable lead off hitter and b) we have plenty of power further down the order.
Mark DeRosa is going to be huge for us this year, particularly since we haven't gotten consistent production from the #2 spot since the second half of '07 when AC first came up. Victor Martinez has had a good spring and will only get better going forward. Obviously, there are concerns about Pronk, but he's shown a lot of improvement in the last week and a half. I have no problems with throwing him in the fire right off the bat. He's either going to hit or he won't, so why not? Besides, it keeps the order balanced and, as many people have pointed out, he's only the clean-up hitter if everyone ahead of him gets on base in the first inning. After that it really doesn't matter, and it certainly doesn't matter nearly as much as having balance.
Peralta is clearly our ace in the hole on offense and I have a feeling that more and more teams are going to realize that this year. The upside there is that they'll have to pitch to Choo, who has clearly had problems because of the WBC, but we've seen glimmers of what he's capable of. We also know what he can do when he gets consistent time in, so I have confidence in him (and Trevor Crowe, for that matter, if it comes to that).
The Kelly Shoppach/Ryan Garko #7 spot will be interesting to watch, as they're very similar types of hitters. As long as they can both remember that they don't have to hit for the fences every time out (and having six guys ahead of them who can all hit it out helps), they should really produce. Ben Francisco had a nice spring and it would appear that he's developing into the consistent player we all wondered if he could be. Asdrubal Cabrera has also had a nice spring, particularly compared to last year, and I think he lives and dies by his confidence level.
As for our bench, we have:
Garko/Shoppach (see above)
Josh Barfield
Trevor Crowe
Jamey Carroll
As much as I'd rather Crowe get every day ABs in Columbus, you do have to like the speed off the bench we have now. I know the Tribe can't really afford to eat $4 million, but it's nice seeing Crowe get a shot in the majors. And if Jamey Carroll does what he did last year, we should have one of the best benches in baseball.
Let's also not look over the guys we have waiting in the wings, like Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, the aforementiond Trevor Crowe (when Dellucci comes off the DL), Michael Aubrey (who had a great spring), and even Wes Hodges, who made a lot of people take notice in spring training.
As we move to the pitching, let's start with the good and move to the more questionable. Here's our bullpen:
Masa Kobayashi
Rafael Betancourt
Zach Jackson
Joe Smith
Rafael Perez
Jensen Lewis
Kerry Wood
You may know those last four guys on the list as part of the Guys With Really Low Spring ERAs club. All four dominated during the spring, with Wood only giving up runs in his last appearance. As for our middle relief, there are some serious question marks. Jackson won his job because he's a converted starter and can go multiple innings if needed, but he wasn't exactly impressive in spring training. He's also a lefty. But, his fatal flaw in the past has been that one big inning, so perhaps a middle relief role will get him in and out before that inning pops up.
Rafael Betancourt has been about as inconsistent as he was last year, periodically flashing glimpses of the '07 Betancourt, then reverting to the '08 version. I have no idea what we'll get out of him. Masa Kobayashi has been more or less awful all spring, and most Tribe fans are taking guesses at when he'll be sent down, most likely to be replaced by Vinnie Chulk, who had a great spring.
Regardless, the back end of our bullpen looks really, really impressive.
Now for the biggest question mark we have, our starting rotation:
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes
I have no idea what to expect from Lee, given what he did last year as compared to what he did the year before and what he did in spring training. My best guess would be something between '05 (18-5, 3.79 ERA) and '06 (14-11, 4.40 ERA). I would guess 17 wins and an ERA around 3.50, which I'd be perfectly happy with, even it is a step down from last season.
Fausto Carmona, on the other hand, could be in a position to dominate. If the Tribe has a Cy Young candidate in the rotation this year, I think it's Fausto. He had a great spring and really seems to be returning to his '07 form. I think, by the end of the year, he'll be our ace.
Carl Pavano has gotten better in each of his spring starts. I don't expect him to go much past five innings most games, but I think he'll keep us in the game. I'm thinking something similar to the numbers I gave for Lee above, perhaps fewer wins.
Scott Lewis is a real question mark. He's struggle a great deal since winning a spot on the line-up and he's been giving up a lot of long balls. I'd hazard a guess, but I really have no idea. I'm not too concerned about it, though, as we have a number of guys who could step in for him.
Anthony Reyes had all of one bad outing this spring. I would expect him to pick up where he left off last season. I think he could actually be better than Pavano and get serious consideration as comeback player of the year, right behind Fausto. I do think Wedge will limit his innings, though.
And let's not forget that we should get Jake Westbrook back after the break (earlier, in fact, but I'd be shocked if they didn't hold him out for a while just to be safe). Jake could be the mid-season trade this team needs, really, which is huge. Let's not forget how he was throwing the ball last year before got hurt. He was really dominating, but getting no run support. If he can return to form, slotting him in as the #3 guy would be gold.
Of course we can also look at David Huff, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers, three guys who could show up at any point in the season. While none of them had the best springs, I think starting the season in Columbus will give them all the time they need to show they can take the next step.
So there you go -- the 2009 Clevelan Indians. I'm picking them to win the Central. Beyond that, I'm not saying, as just thinking about it makes me anxious.
As for the rest of baseball, here are my picks:
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Angels
Wildcard: Red Sox
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
Wildcard: Mets
Monday, March 16, 2009
T-minus 3 Weeks and Counting!
Well, we've broken the three week mark until the opening of the new season and while I generally like to avoid making any kind of observations based upon the first few weeks of spring training, I'm going to do just that. There have been ups and downs already with each faction of the team, but the further along we get, the more and more excited I am, and the more confident I become that this team will actually compete, not just in the AL Central, but in the entire American League.
Rotation
I'm not putting a lot of stock into Cliff Lee's troubles (albeit from two starts). Lee earned the #5 spot in last year's rotation by being the lesser of three evils; he had an awful spring, but it was just a bit less awful than Aaron Laffey's and Jeremy Sower's. In fact, I actually feel pretty good about Lee having a bad spring, since it seemed to allow him to peak just in time for the season to start.
Fausto Carmona is a different story. He's had three outings, two good, one bad, but the last one was good, which is why I'm optimistic. It seems like both Carmona and the staff know exactly what he needs to do to be successful, which is a good sign. He also lost the majority of the weight he'd put on in the off season, which is also good.
Anthony Reyes hasn't pitched a whole lot of innings yet, but he hasn't given up a run yet, either. He appears to be both healthy and on his game.
Carl Pavano is healthy. He's also had two games a different as can be. Again, it's really too early to know, but I'm sure he'll get better as we get closer to opening day.
Perhaps the best thing to come out of spring training (well, one of a few) is the battle for the last spot. Aaron Laffey, Scott Lewis, and Jeremy Sowers all had great starts in their last outings; Lewis was the only one to even give up a run. Sowers got eight ground ball outs in four innings today, and started two double plays on his own. His ERA is 3.00. But while Laffey's ERA is at 7.00, he pitched four no hit innings in his last start. While Lewis looked good in his first appearance, I would handicap his odds, simply because he has the least MLB experience.
Still, to have three guys throwing that well this early in spring training bodes well for the fifth spot and possibly beyond, depending upon how are two reclamation projects (Reyes and Pavano) do.
Bullpen
I am as giddy as a school girl.
Sure, Kerry Wood has only thrown two innings so far (allowing a single hit and no runs), but he's been dominate in those two innings. Rafael Perez has only been in camp for a few days, but his performance in the World Baseball Classic was equally as dominant (even if the rest of his team decided not to show up). And Jensen freaking Lewis has been an absolute beast in each of his appearances; he's yet to allow a run and, from all accounts, he's going at guys like a closer.
We could have the best back end of the bullpen in baseball. No, really.
The loss of Adam Miller (again) was disappointing, but Vinnie Chulk appears primed for a rebirth. He pitched two more scoreless innings today, bringing his ERA down to 2.31 -- and he's gotten a good amount of work as the coaches try to evaluate him. He seems like the current favorite to get the last spot most of us assumed would go to Miller.
Kobayashi is a definite concern, but someone like Zach Jackson would be nice to have in the 'pen, both for length and because he's left handed.
Line-up
Anthony Castrovince over at www.clevelandindians.com made a good point the other day on why the front office are keeping Peralta at short instead of moving him to third. Sure, there's the matter of Peralta having to learn a new position as opposed to using DeRosa who already has big league experience at the hot corner. The bigger issue, though, is that it's not a given that Asdrubal Cabrera will stay in the line-up. At this point, he's yet to prove that he can produce on a regular basis, so the idea of moving our infield around to accommodate a guy who might not make it past the first month is, well, really, really premature.
If Cabrera does falter, the Tribe has a lot of options, options not named Josh Barfield.
Tony Graffanino, entering his 14th season, has really been hitting the ball so far this spring. Given DeRosa's ability to play the outfield, Carroll's ability to play every position in the infield, and Cabrera's ability to switch over to short stop, I wouldn't be surprised if the last spot on the roster goes to Graffanino instead of Barfield (who they're trying to get some time in the outfield). He's just performing much better than Barfield, who still has options left.
The other option is really encouraging, as well: Wes Hodges is having a really good spring. Were there suddenly an opening at second, it would be interesting to see if the Tribe would consider moving DeRosa over there and bringing up Hodges to play 3rd, perhaps platooning with Carroll until he gets comfortable in the majors. Regardless, it's a great to see him performing well, as he is, more or less, the future of third base for the Tribe.
I'll say this much: the Columbus Clippers should be really good this year!
Rotation
I'm not putting a lot of stock into Cliff Lee's troubles (albeit from two starts). Lee earned the #5 spot in last year's rotation by being the lesser of three evils; he had an awful spring, but it was just a bit less awful than Aaron Laffey's and Jeremy Sower's. In fact, I actually feel pretty good about Lee having a bad spring, since it seemed to allow him to peak just in time for the season to start.
Fausto Carmona is a different story. He's had three outings, two good, one bad, but the last one was good, which is why I'm optimistic. It seems like both Carmona and the staff know exactly what he needs to do to be successful, which is a good sign. He also lost the majority of the weight he'd put on in the off season, which is also good.
Anthony Reyes hasn't pitched a whole lot of innings yet, but he hasn't given up a run yet, either. He appears to be both healthy and on his game.
Carl Pavano is healthy. He's also had two games a different as can be. Again, it's really too early to know, but I'm sure he'll get better as we get closer to opening day.
Perhaps the best thing to come out of spring training (well, one of a few) is the battle for the last spot. Aaron Laffey, Scott Lewis, and Jeremy Sowers all had great starts in their last outings; Lewis was the only one to even give up a run. Sowers got eight ground ball outs in four innings today, and started two double plays on his own. His ERA is 3.00. But while Laffey's ERA is at 7.00, he pitched four no hit innings in his last start. While Lewis looked good in his first appearance, I would handicap his odds, simply because he has the least MLB experience.
Still, to have three guys throwing that well this early in spring training bodes well for the fifth spot and possibly beyond, depending upon how are two reclamation projects (Reyes and Pavano) do.
Bullpen
I am as giddy as a school girl.
Sure, Kerry Wood has only thrown two innings so far (allowing a single hit and no runs), but he's been dominate in those two innings. Rafael Perez has only been in camp for a few days, but his performance in the World Baseball Classic was equally as dominant (even if the rest of his team decided not to show up). And Jensen freaking Lewis has been an absolute beast in each of his appearances; he's yet to allow a run and, from all accounts, he's going at guys like a closer.
We could have the best back end of the bullpen in baseball. No, really.
The loss of Adam Miller (again) was disappointing, but Vinnie Chulk appears primed for a rebirth. He pitched two more scoreless innings today, bringing his ERA down to 2.31 -- and he's gotten a good amount of work as the coaches try to evaluate him. He seems like the current favorite to get the last spot most of us assumed would go to Miller.
Kobayashi is a definite concern, but someone like Zach Jackson would be nice to have in the 'pen, both for length and because he's left handed.
Line-up
Anthony Castrovince over at www.clevelandindians.com made a good point the other day on why the front office are keeping Peralta at short instead of moving him to third. Sure, there's the matter of Peralta having to learn a new position as opposed to using DeRosa who already has big league experience at the hot corner. The bigger issue, though, is that it's not a given that Asdrubal Cabrera will stay in the line-up. At this point, he's yet to prove that he can produce on a regular basis, so the idea of moving our infield around to accommodate a guy who might not make it past the first month is, well, really, really premature.
If Cabrera does falter, the Tribe has a lot of options, options not named Josh Barfield.
Tony Graffanino, entering his 14th season, has really been hitting the ball so far this spring. Given DeRosa's ability to play the outfield, Carroll's ability to play every position in the infield, and Cabrera's ability to switch over to short stop, I wouldn't be surprised if the last spot on the roster goes to Graffanino instead of Barfield (who they're trying to get some time in the outfield). He's just performing much better than Barfield, who still has options left.
The other option is really encouraging, as well: Wes Hodges is having a really good spring. Were there suddenly an opening at second, it would be interesting to see if the Tribe would consider moving DeRosa over there and bringing up Hodges to play 3rd, perhaps platooning with Carroll until he gets comfortable in the majors. Regardless, it's a great to see him performing well, as he is, more or less, the future of third base for the Tribe.
I'll say this much: the Columbus Clippers should be really good this year!
Saturday, January 3, 2009
I'm going to ponder DeRosa
Yes, that's a pun.
It's hard to argue with the trade for DeRosa. I mean, it's really, really hard to argue with it.
Now, in my pipe dream fantasy, the trade was the first part of a bigger move, a move that sends DeRosa and some young pitching to San Diego for Jake Peavy. After all, DeRosa was a big part of the talks between the Cubs and the Padres. And, to be perfectly honest, I'm much more comfortable having unknown quantities in our infield than I am in our rotation, as I think we can piece together good defense if need be.
I also figured Kelly Shoppach would be a good start for a trade to get Peavy, too. I know people love Kelly Shoppach, but the bottom line is that his trade value is never going to be higher and we have decent depth at catcher in the minors. That said, I'm afraid that Garko's inconsistent offense last season makes keeping Shoppach something of a necessity this year, so he can fill in for Martinez when Victor has to move over to first.
And I was also keen on getting Brian Roberts from Baltimore. Yes, it would have force major changes to the infield, but it also would have allowed Sizemore to move down in the order, something that would have given us more coverage in the middle of the line-up if Travis Hafner is a bust. Granted, that's assuming Wedge and Shapiro ever, ever realize it's time to move Grady down.
But let's live in the now and look at the reality of the situation.
Mark DeRosa's average from last year is better than anyone else on our roster from last year (Peralta led the team with a .276 avg.) He'd be tied for third in home runs (with Shoppach). He'd be fourth in RBI, just two behind Peralta. And he'd be second in runs scored, just 1 behind Peralta. In other words, that's some heavy duty offense we're adding to the team.
Putting DeRosa at third gives us a consistent bat there. Leaving Jhonny at short gives us a consistent bat there. And we now have at least three players battling for the starting job at second (Cabrera, Barfield, and Valbuena). With the flexibility of the Garko/Martinez/Shoppach platoon at first and behind the plate, our offense should be, at the very least, solid.
The question, of course, is whether or not Wes Hodges, after a single season at AAA (where he's never played) could grow enough to win the starting job at third in 2010, as we'll be right back where we started.
My big concern now is the rotation. Here's why:
Cliff Lee -- No one expects him to pitch like he did in '08, but something close to that is going to be needed in an American League filled with teams with multiple aces
Fausto Carmona -- just as we need the '08 Lee, we need the '07 Carmona. Let's hope last season was a result of his injury.
Anthony Reyes -- Can he stay healthy? Can he pitch like he did at the end of last year? Can he be consistent?
Scott Lewis -- Can HE pitch like he did at the end of last year for an entire year?
Aaron Laffey -- Can he turn the corner and pitch well for an entire year?
Jeremy Sowers -- Can he return to his first season form and maintain that for a year?
Zach Jackson -- Can he get past the one bad inning that always seems to bring him down?
David Huff -- Is he ready for the majors?
Jake Westbrook -- Will he come back at full strength by mid-season?
That's a lot of questions for an essential part of a team. I'll admit, it's nice to have 8 (and a half, if you count Westbrook) guys for just five spots, but still.
Spring training is going to be very interesting.
It's hard to argue with the trade for DeRosa. I mean, it's really, really hard to argue with it.
Now, in my pipe dream fantasy, the trade was the first part of a bigger move, a move that sends DeRosa and some young pitching to San Diego for Jake Peavy. After all, DeRosa was a big part of the talks between the Cubs and the Padres. And, to be perfectly honest, I'm much more comfortable having unknown quantities in our infield than I am in our rotation, as I think we can piece together good defense if need be.
I also figured Kelly Shoppach would be a good start for a trade to get Peavy, too. I know people love Kelly Shoppach, but the bottom line is that his trade value is never going to be higher and we have decent depth at catcher in the minors. That said, I'm afraid that Garko's inconsistent offense last season makes keeping Shoppach something of a necessity this year, so he can fill in for Martinez when Victor has to move over to first.
And I was also keen on getting Brian Roberts from Baltimore. Yes, it would have force major changes to the infield, but it also would have allowed Sizemore to move down in the order, something that would have given us more coverage in the middle of the line-up if Travis Hafner is a bust. Granted, that's assuming Wedge and Shapiro ever, ever realize it's time to move Grady down.
But let's live in the now and look at the reality of the situation.
Mark DeRosa's average from last year is better than anyone else on our roster from last year (Peralta led the team with a .276 avg.) He'd be tied for third in home runs (with Shoppach). He'd be fourth in RBI, just two behind Peralta. And he'd be second in runs scored, just 1 behind Peralta. In other words, that's some heavy duty offense we're adding to the team.
Putting DeRosa at third gives us a consistent bat there. Leaving Jhonny at short gives us a consistent bat there. And we now have at least three players battling for the starting job at second (Cabrera, Barfield, and Valbuena). With the flexibility of the Garko/Martinez/Shoppach platoon at first and behind the plate, our offense should be, at the very least, solid.
The question, of course, is whether or not Wes Hodges, after a single season at AAA (where he's never played) could grow enough to win the starting job at third in 2010, as we'll be right back where we started.
My big concern now is the rotation. Here's why:
Cliff Lee -- No one expects him to pitch like he did in '08, but something close to that is going to be needed in an American League filled with teams with multiple aces
Fausto Carmona -- just as we need the '08 Lee, we need the '07 Carmona. Let's hope last season was a result of his injury.
Anthony Reyes -- Can he stay healthy? Can he pitch like he did at the end of last year? Can he be consistent?
Scott Lewis -- Can HE pitch like he did at the end of last year for an entire year?
Aaron Laffey -- Can he turn the corner and pitch well for an entire year?
Jeremy Sowers -- Can he return to his first season form and maintain that for a year?
Zach Jackson -- Can he get past the one bad inning that always seems to bring him down?
David Huff -- Is he ready for the majors?
Jake Westbrook -- Will he come back at full strength by mid-season?
That's a lot of questions for an essential part of a team. I'll admit, it's nice to have 8 (and a half, if you count Westbrook) guys for just five spots, but still.
Spring training is going to be very interesting.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Standing Pat
In Anthony Castrovince's latest mailbag (you do read the best team blog online, right?), he mentions that Mark Shapiro more or less said that the Tribe blew it's wad of cash by signing Kerry Wood. What this means, basically, is that all remaining holes will be filled either internally, or through trades.
Since we can (and will) speculate until the cows come home about trades, let's work under the assumption that the Tribe is, officially, done, and that our line-up next year will be determined by Spring Training. Sound scary? Well, it's not quite as bad as you might think.
The addition of Kerry Wood (and Joe Smith) actually, on paper, gets this team to the post-season. Last season, the Tribe had 51 save opportunities and converted 31 of those, blowing 20. If Wood helps the Tribe pick up even 10 more saves (and realize that Borowski had just 6 last year) -- and you add that to our record last year -- we're 91-71, first place in the AL Central.
And what about our offense? The Tribe actually ended the year with the 6th most runs in the AL, although the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers were all ahead of us. But that was a year without Hafner (who, even if he was off in '07, still drove in over 100 runs) and basically without Martinez. With Shoppach getting extra at bats and the return of Martinez and (hopefully, but not neccessary for those numbers to remain the same) Hafner, the Tribe should be fine in the offense department. And, not to be mean, but the less at bats lost to Marte and Gutierrez will help, too.
So, then, what about fielding? The Tribe finished 9th in fielding. Moving Peralta to third will probably be a wash, but shouldn't drop our team score. Cabrera at short will most likely raise our score, and I would imagine any combination of Carroll/Barfield/Valbuena will hold even at second. The Garko/Martinez combo at first should stay the same and the Martinez/Shoppach combo will hold steady. Our outfield, while losing a great player in Gut, will still feature Choo (with a cannon of an arm), Sizemore ('nuff said) and Francisco. Should be pretty good.
Clearly, I'm willing to make a lot of assumptions here. Where, then, is the big concern? I think that's pretty obvious: our rotation.
There's no way we can count on Lee to repeat what he did this past year. That would just be insane. I have no idea which Fausto Carmona will show up. Anthony Reyes looked good in his few starts with us, but that assume he can a) stay healthy and b) maintain that production. Which leaves us with two open spots in the rotation, at least until mid-season, assuming (a big assumption) that Jake Westbrook returns and pitches like we all remember.
The upside is that we have a number of guys competing for those two spots, so we should, in theory, be able to get good people in there. The downside is that they're all really young. The list includes Aaron Laffey, the good Jeremy Sowers, the bad Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, Scott Lewis, the Zach Jackson for four good innings, and the Zach Jackson for one bad inning. That's five guys and two spots, which should make for some nice competition.
Given how the season ended, odds are that Lewis will make the cut. I would expect Laffey to win the other spot, unless Sowers has learned how to be consistent or Jackson has learned how to beat the one bad inning which always seems to ruin him.
Not unlike 2007, we're going to need a young arm to step up the way Fausto did if we're really going to make a run at it.
Since we can (and will) speculate until the cows come home about trades, let's work under the assumption that the Tribe is, officially, done, and that our line-up next year will be determined by Spring Training. Sound scary? Well, it's not quite as bad as you might think.
The addition of Kerry Wood (and Joe Smith) actually, on paper, gets this team to the post-season. Last season, the Tribe had 51 save opportunities and converted 31 of those, blowing 20. If Wood helps the Tribe pick up even 10 more saves (and realize that Borowski had just 6 last year) -- and you add that to our record last year -- we're 91-71, first place in the AL Central.
And what about our offense? The Tribe actually ended the year with the 6th most runs in the AL, although the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers were all ahead of us. But that was a year without Hafner (who, even if he was off in '07, still drove in over 100 runs) and basically without Martinez. With Shoppach getting extra at bats and the return of Martinez and (hopefully, but not neccessary for those numbers to remain the same) Hafner, the Tribe should be fine in the offense department. And, not to be mean, but the less at bats lost to Marte and Gutierrez will help, too.
So, then, what about fielding? The Tribe finished 9th in fielding. Moving Peralta to third will probably be a wash, but shouldn't drop our team score. Cabrera at short will most likely raise our score, and I would imagine any combination of Carroll/Barfield/Valbuena will hold even at second. The Garko/Martinez combo at first should stay the same and the Martinez/Shoppach combo will hold steady. Our outfield, while losing a great player in Gut, will still feature Choo (with a cannon of an arm), Sizemore ('nuff said) and Francisco. Should be pretty good.
Clearly, I'm willing to make a lot of assumptions here. Where, then, is the big concern? I think that's pretty obvious: our rotation.
There's no way we can count on Lee to repeat what he did this past year. That would just be insane. I have no idea which Fausto Carmona will show up. Anthony Reyes looked good in his few starts with us, but that assume he can a) stay healthy and b) maintain that production. Which leaves us with two open spots in the rotation, at least until mid-season, assuming (a big assumption) that Jake Westbrook returns and pitches like we all remember.
The upside is that we have a number of guys competing for those two spots, so we should, in theory, be able to get good people in there. The downside is that they're all really young. The list includes Aaron Laffey, the good Jeremy Sowers, the bad Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, Scott Lewis, the Zach Jackson for four good innings, and the Zach Jackson for one bad inning. That's five guys and two spots, which should make for some nice competition.
Given how the season ended, odds are that Lewis will make the cut. I would expect Laffey to win the other spot, unless Sowers has learned how to be consistent or Jackson has learned how to beat the one bad inning which always seems to ruin him.
Not unlike 2007, we're going to need a young arm to step up the way Fausto did if we're really going to make a run at it.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Off Season
Why do they call it the "Hot Stove?" Does anyone know?
Anyway, as things have progressed I've decided to revamp my ideas on what the Tribe should do during the off season. Here are my suggestions:
1) Sign Trevor Hoffman. Yes, I'm a big fan of Jensen Lewis, so much so that I even think he can step in and do the job if need be. But, I also see the advantage of having a guy like Hoffman in the interim, a guy who can not only save games for us, but also teach guys like Lewis and Adam Miller what it means to be a big league closer. And it's clear that he loves Cleveland and isn't looking for a long deal. Really, this should be the deal that all Cleveland fans are pushing for the most, as it's the one free agent signing that actually seems feasible. The Tribe needs to pull the trigger.
2) Trade Kelly Shoppach. You heard me. My reasons for this are many, but the main one is that Shoppach's trade value will never be higher than it is now. Why? Because he will never get the playing time he got last year unless he's starting somewhere else. I know that we can move Victor to 1st when we need to, but even if we go with some kind of rotating cast between catcher and first, Shoppach still won't play every day, which is ultimately what he did for almost the entire year in 2008.
And I know that people worry about dealing Shoppach when we don't know what to expect from Travis Hafner or even Ryan Garko. But you know what? We didn't have Martinez then, either, and there's no reason to believe Victor won't produce like he always will. Unlike Pronk or Garko, Victor has never lost his ability to produce when he's healthy. In other words, Shoppach's offensive pop will be filled by the guy whose spot he was filling.
There are so many teams out there looking for a young, power hitting catcher that the Tribe should be able to get a good deal, perhaps even some pitching (the Rangers were said to be talking to Boston about Justin Masterson, for crying out loud, and Shoppach is younger than anyone Texas has).
3) Make Adam Miller a reliever (already done!) and do whatever it takes to keep him healthy. Wrap your brain around this possibility in the 'pen: Hoffman, Lewis, Perez, Miller. I'd feel pretty good about the 8th and 9th with those four.
4) Deal for Brian Roberts. I know, I know, this is the rumor that won't die, but it makes all kinds of sense for both teams. The Orioles are not only in desperate need of pitching, they're in rebuilding mode (yet again). I don't know that a guy like Jeremy Sowers is a big enough prize to be the center piece of any such trade, so it might mean giving up someone like Laffey, Lewis, or Huff. I would also guess the addition of a guy like Barfield and/or one of our outfielders might be needed. But, in the end, the Tribe would kill two birds with one stone: we'd shore up our infield, we'd add a proven lead off hitter, and we'd solidify the middle of our order by moving Grady down to third. This deal would fix A LOT of our problems in one move.
Those are my four suggestions. I could go farther and include my various daydreams (like the Tribe dealing for Jake Peavy), but I'll try to stay as realistic as possible.
December is only a few days away -- the time for deals is soon...
Anyway, as things have progressed I've decided to revamp my ideas on what the Tribe should do during the off season. Here are my suggestions:
1) Sign Trevor Hoffman. Yes, I'm a big fan of Jensen Lewis, so much so that I even think he can step in and do the job if need be. But, I also see the advantage of having a guy like Hoffman in the interim, a guy who can not only save games for us, but also teach guys like Lewis and Adam Miller what it means to be a big league closer. And it's clear that he loves Cleveland and isn't looking for a long deal. Really, this should be the deal that all Cleveland fans are pushing for the most, as it's the one free agent signing that actually seems feasible. The Tribe needs to pull the trigger.
2) Trade Kelly Shoppach. You heard me. My reasons for this are many, but the main one is that Shoppach's trade value will never be higher than it is now. Why? Because he will never get the playing time he got last year unless he's starting somewhere else. I know that we can move Victor to 1st when we need to, but even if we go with some kind of rotating cast between catcher and first, Shoppach still won't play every day, which is ultimately what he did for almost the entire year in 2008.
And I know that people worry about dealing Shoppach when we don't know what to expect from Travis Hafner or even Ryan Garko. But you know what? We didn't have Martinez then, either, and there's no reason to believe Victor won't produce like he always will. Unlike Pronk or Garko, Victor has never lost his ability to produce when he's healthy. In other words, Shoppach's offensive pop will be filled by the guy whose spot he was filling.
There are so many teams out there looking for a young, power hitting catcher that the Tribe should be able to get a good deal, perhaps even some pitching (the Rangers were said to be talking to Boston about Justin Masterson, for crying out loud, and Shoppach is younger than anyone Texas has).
3) Make Adam Miller a reliever (already done!) and do whatever it takes to keep him healthy. Wrap your brain around this possibility in the 'pen: Hoffman, Lewis, Perez, Miller. I'd feel pretty good about the 8th and 9th with those four.
4) Deal for Brian Roberts. I know, I know, this is the rumor that won't die, but it makes all kinds of sense for both teams. The Orioles are not only in desperate need of pitching, they're in rebuilding mode (yet again). I don't know that a guy like Jeremy Sowers is a big enough prize to be the center piece of any such trade, so it might mean giving up someone like Laffey, Lewis, or Huff. I would also guess the addition of a guy like Barfield and/or one of our outfielders might be needed. But, in the end, the Tribe would kill two birds with one stone: we'd shore up our infield, we'd add a proven lead off hitter, and we'd solidify the middle of our order by moving Grady down to third. This deal would fix A LOT of our problems in one move.
Those are my four suggestions. I could go farther and include my various daydreams (like the Tribe dealing for Jake Peavy), but I'll try to stay as realistic as possible.
December is only a few days away -- the time for deals is soon...
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